The Coral Welsh Grand National is run over a shorter distance than both the Aintree Grand National and Scottish Grand National. However, it’s traditional slot in the days after Christmas means that it is rarely run on anything but soft or heavy going. It is, therefore, arguably more of a stamina test than either of it’s counterparts run in April and it’s not uncommon for more than half of the field to fail to finish at Chepstow (a maximum of nine have completed in four of the last five years).
Coral Welsh Grand National History and Trends
The Coral Welsh Grand National is the big betting race over the Christmas period but it wasn’t until 1979 that it was allotted it’s now traditional slot.
First run in 1895, it was run at the now-defunt Ely racecourse near Cardiff until 1947. After one year at Caerleon, also now no longer a racecourse, it was moved to its present home at Chepstow in 1949.
The race has produced four Cheltenham Gold Cup winners – Burrough Hill Lad, Cool Ground, Master Oats and Synchronised – since the 1980s but is better known as a guide to the Aintree Grand National. Corbiere and Earth Summit completed the double in the same season while Rhyme ‘n’ Reason, in 1998, and Party Politics, in 1992, both finished second at Chepstow before winning on Merseyside.
Recent form at Chepstow has become a major factor in the Coral Welsh Grand National in recent seasons and winning form at the track is also a plus. But this is generally not a race for fully-exposed staying chasers as only two winners in the last 40 years have been aged 10 or older and no nine-year-old has won since 2003. Only two winners since the turn of the century have carried more than 11st but last year’s winner, Native River, was one. Notre Pere won the race for Ireland in 2008 but that was a rarity and no chaser trained in the northern half of the UK has won since 1984.
Native River carried top weight to victory last year and Paul Nicholls would not be running VICENTE unless he thought last year’s Scottish Grand National winner was capable of a big run.
Only 17lb separates the top weight from the bottom weight this season so the eight-year-old welter burden is not as much of a disadvantage as first appears. He ran a super race on his reappearance at Cheltenham and that will have put him pot-on at Chepstow, where he can be backed at 14/1.
Beware The Bear and Bishops Road, first and second in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle, are a best 8/1 and 16/1 respectively and both can figure again. The former won despite a slipping saddle at Gosforth Park. Chase The Spud, 10/1 with several bookmakers, won last season’s Midlands National at Uttoxeter and beat a subsequent winner on his reappearance at Haydock. But Mysteree has the beating of him on these terms and is available at 12/1. Rock The Kasbah’s record is Chepstow is three wins and two seconds from five runs so he can’t be left out of calculations at the general 9/1.
Coral Welsh Grand National Current Best Odds
Beware The Bear 8/1, Rock The Kasbah 9/1, Chase The Spud 10/1, Folsom Blue 11/1, Wild West Wind, Ask The Weatherman, Final Nudge and Mysteree 12/1, Vintage Clouds and Vicente 14/1, Bishops Road and Pobbles Bay 16/1, Raz De Maree and Milansbar 20/1, Houblon Des Obeaux 22/1, Silsol and Sir Mangan 25/1, Buckhorn Timothy 33/1, Splash of Ginge and O’Faolains Boy 40/1