The Crabbie’s Grand National has evolved. A softening of its previously fearsome obstacles and a stricter qualifying criteria, as well as a slight shortening of the distance, have combined to generally hand the initiative to the classy chasers nearer the top of the handicap.
Of course, it’s still the race in which everyone still feels obliged to have a bet and, don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t like to be hurtling towards Bechers Brook on half-a-ton of horse at 30mph. But maybe some of the romance has been taken out of the event by the animal welfare people, though I do wonder if the Aintree course ‘improvements’ have made a notable difference to casualty figures.
One redeeming factor for those having their pocket money on an outsider this weekend is that soft going could level the playing field.
BetVictor are paying out on six places at a quarter the odds.
Crabbie’s Grand National Trends
It was good to soft when Many Clouds all but rewrote the record books last year. As well as becoming the youngest winner in the past decade, he was also rated 3lbs higher than 2012 winner Neptune Collonges at 160 and carried 3lbs more. As 11st 10lb is now the maximum any horse can carry in the National, the weight shouldn’t be an issue in Oliver Sherwood’s stable star’s bid for repeat success though he runs off a mind-blowing 165 this year. You could still get a return at the general 8/1, however, though the top weight is no certainty to confirm running last year with runner-up Saint Are (a general 16/1).
Winners aged under eight and over 11 are rare so we’ll cross out On His Own, Aachen, Onenightinvienna, Vics Canvas and Vieux Lion Rouge.
Pendra’s lack of a recent run is a concern as most recent winners had had a prep race in the last two months. For the same reason, Wonderful Charm is ignored.
Six winners in the last 10 years had contested a hurdle in the same season so THE DRUID’S NEPHEW (a general 16/1) and GALLANT OSCAR (20/1 in several places) are the first two of my four selections.
Neil Mulholland’s charge appeared to be travelling like a winner when over-jumping at the fourth-last 12 months ago and slithering to a standstill. He is 9lb higher this year but ran a very nice trial when second in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster and this has been his target since last year.
Gallant Oscar was third to The Druid’s Hephew at Cheltenham last year and then won a valuable handicap on soft going at the Punchestown Festival. He, too, has been laid out for this by Tony Martin and might be the best of a very strong Irish presence.
Gordon Elliott fances the lightly-raced Ucello Conti (a general 25/1) to run well, however, and what a story it would be if RULE THE WORLD were to pass the post in front. I don’t know if a maiden over fences has ever won the big one at Aintree but Mouse Morris’ nine-year-old has some cracking credentials considering he’s never won over the larger obstacles. He was placed in the Irish National last year and also the Kerry National and wasn’t far behind Ucello Conti in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran in January when 6lb worse off – the general 50/1 is quite attractive on that evidence so he goes on our list.
Dour stayer Goonyella will be staying on in the closing stages if jumping round safely and is 20/1 with most bookmakers. Morning Assembly (a general 25/1) has been well backed since his second at Cheltenham while Gilgamboa (66/1 general) could also figure. Ruby Walsh surprisingly rides Sir Des Champs (33/1 with William Hill) but none of the Willie Mullins team make much appeal this time.
Silviniaco Conti has been a superstar for Paul Nicholls, winning seven times at Grade 1 level. But he’s failed twice in the Gold Cup and his chances of staying another mile at Aintree look remote under a big weight and the general 12/1 is much too short.
HOLYWELL’s lack of size could be a problem but he’s probably the best handicapped horse in the Crabbie’s Grand National off 153. He ran a blinder at Cheltenham and this is his time of year. He’s won at this meeting the past and, if he does get into a rhythm, I wouldn’t rule out a big run at the 16/1 with several layers including Betfred.
The Last Samuri is arguably the unknown quantity this year but I’m not sure he yet jumps well enough to conquer Aintree and the general 10/1 is short enough now.
Crabbie’s Grand National Current Best Odds
Many Clouds (8/1), The Last Samuri (10/1), Silviniaco Conti (12/1), Holywell (16/1), Saint Are (16/1), The Druids Nephew (16/1), Goonyella, Gallant Oscar and Shutthefrontdoor (20/1), Ucello Conti, Kruzhlinin and Morning Assembly (25/1), O’Faolains Boy, Sir Des Champs, Triolo D’Alene and Unioniste (33/1), Boston Bob and First Lieutenant (40/1), Just A Par, Le Reve, On His Own, Onenightinvienna, Rule The World and Soll (50/1), The Romford Pele, Wonderful Charm, Ballycasey, Ballynagour, Buywise, Gilgamboa, Home Farm, Katenko, Pendra, Rocky Creek, Vics Canvas, Vieux Lion Rouge, Black Thunder and Hadrian’s Approach (66/1), Aachen and Double Ross (100/1)
Bet365 are guaranteeing best odds in the race now that the final declarations have been made.
Crabbie’s Grand National Four To Follow
GALLANT OSCAR (20/1 general)
THE DRUID’S NEPHEW (16/1 general)
RULE THE WORLD (50/1 general)
HOLYWELL (16/1 general)
