Emirates Cesarewitch Odds and Preview – Horse Racing Betting October 12

Frankie hoping Buttercup will bloom in Cesarewitch

Horse Racing Betting

Horse Racing Betting at Ladbrokes
Like last year, Frankie Dettori arrives back at Newmarket having won the first leg of the Autumn Double, the Cambridgeshire, on Lord North. Given the Italian’s popularity, there may be more than a few bets running on to Buildmeupbuttercup in this Saturday’s Emirates Cesarewitch worth almost £218,000 to the winner.

Cesarewitch History and Trends

The Cesarewitch is a run over a distance of 2m2f on the Rowley Mile course at Newmarket every October. Unusually for such a long distance, the race is run in almost a straight line (there is just one bend after about 1m2f). A unique feature of the Cesarewitch course is that it crosses a county border – the race starts in Cambridgeshire and finishes in Suffolk.
It’s unusual name is owed to an anglicised version of Tsarevich, the title of the heir to the throne in Imperial Russia. The race was named in honour of Tsesarevich Alexander (later Tsar Alexander II), after he donated £300 to the Jockey Club.
First run in 1839, it’s been a regular fixture in the racing calendar since and is, traditionally, one of the big betting heats of the year.

  • Cesarewitch winners certainly require stamina in abundance as every winner in the last 20 years had previously won over at least 1m6f, with many of those having proven themselves over 2m.
  • Only five of the last 20 winners won their previous race, though most often ran well.
  • A race within the last two months is preferable while 14 of the last 17 winners carried 9st 2lb or less. The draw has no significant impact judged on recent results.
  • Only one three-year-old winner this century
CESAREWITCH WINNERS OF THE LAST 10 YEARS
Year Going Ran Winner Draw Age Weight Rating Form Last ran Trainer Jockey SP Time
2018 Good to Firm 33 Low Sun 13 5 9 2 97 145-116 45 days W P Mullins S Heffernan 10/ 1 3:48.96
2017 Good 34 Withhold 24 4 8 8 87 72121-3 21 days R Charlton S De Sousa 5/ 1 3:45.59
2016 Good 33 Sweet Selection 23 4 8 8 87 411145 29 days H Morrison S De Sousa 7/ 1 3:53.41
2015 Good 34 Grumeti 15 7 8 2 84 13P-576 91 days A King A Beschizza 50/ 1 3:56.02
2014 Good 33 Big Easy 2 7 8 7 87 1806-72 21 days P Hobbs T Queally 10/ 1 3:49.10
2013 Good to Soft 33 Scatter Dice 18 4 8 8 88 725604 13 days M Johnston S De Sousa 66/ 1 3:52.75
2012 Good to Soft 34 Aaim To Prosper 1 8 9 10 107 742096 16 days B Meehan K Fallon 66/ 1 3:51.51
2011 Good 33 Never Can Tell 36 4 8 11 85 1-42121 29 days J Osborne F Dettori 25/ 1 3:48.04
2010 Good to Soft 32 Aaim To Prosper 30 6 8 2 87 638283 21 days B Meehan L Beuzelin 16/ 1 3:59.10
2009 Good 32 Darley Sun 25 3 8 9 94 141212 36 days D M Simcock A Atzeni 9/ 2 3:49.80

Everest to peak in Newmarket marathon?

Willie Mullins, Ireland’s champion NH trainer, saddled the first and second in last year’s Cesarewitch. He has three runners this year including Stratum, who won his latest race on the Flat at Killarney and started favourite 12 months ago. Stablemate Great White Shark boasts similar credentials and is the mount of William Buick but Frankie rides BUILDMEUPBUTTERCUP, the first of our two against this 31-strong line-up.
Against her is best odds of only 5/1 with Ladbrokes in what is a huge field but there are also plenty of positives.
Her stamina is proven as she was second over 2m4f in the Ascot Stakes in June. She won a bumper on soft going when trained by Mick Channon and the form of her latest second over 1m5f at Leopardstown was franked when the winner, Kastasa, won a Group 3 over 2m at the Curragh on her next start, beating Aidan O’Brien’s Cypress Creek (25/1 with Betvictor) by an easy seven lengths.
If backing the favourite in a race like the Cesarwitch is off-putting, it’s worth noting that four of the last five winners have started at 10/1 or shorter.
There is a chance that MR EVEREST will start shorter than his current general 16/1 if Tony Martin’s followers take an interest.
His profile stacks up as a typical Martin long-distance plot as he’s hardly had any racing this year. Just four runs in 2019 have resulted in two decent efforts in maiden hurdles and a couple of below-the-radar outings in staying handicaps. His seventh at Listowel last time was particularly eye-catching and it was around this time last year that he beat a big field on the Flat at Naas.
This is a very classy handicap, of course, so nothing can be taken for granted but it does appear that the Irish runners may hold the upper hand.
Sneaky Getaway (22/1 with William Hill) is held in high regard and Party Playboy is overpriced at a best 50/1 as he’s near the foot of the weights despite having run in similar contests over the season. Great Trango is also not without a chance at a general 18/1.
The weights are headed by Chester Cup runner-up Who Dares Wins, winner of the Northumberland Plate in June. He’s a general 28/1 with one of Alan King’s other runners, Coeur De Lion, at the same odds with Ladbrokes. King won the race in 2015 with Grumeti and this is very much a race in which NH trainers traditionally do well.
Mark Johnston is also triple-handed but all of his entries are three-year-olds and none from that age group have won the race in 10 years. Themaxwecan (a general 20/1) and Summer Moon (40/1 with William Hill) are two of four recent winners carrying penalties. The others are Land Of Oz (a general 7/1), who carries 7lb extra and Ranch Hand (a general 15/2). Timoshenko (9/1 with Ladbrokes) has won his last six races and stays even further so can’t be left out of calculations.

Emirates Cesarewitch Current Best Odds – can Frankie complete the Autumn Double?

Buildmeupbuttercup 5/1, Land Of Oz 7/1, Ranch Hand 15/2, Timoshenko 9/1, Great White Shark 12/1, Mr Everest 16/1, Great Trango 18/1, Themaxwecan 20/1, Sneaky Getaway 22/1, Time To Study, Stratum, Eddystone Rock and Cypress Creek 25/1, Coeur De Lion and Who Dares Wins 28/1,  Darksideoftarnside 33/1, Summer Moon, Dubawi Fifty, Coeur Blimey, Rainbow Dreamer, Garbanzo, Rochester House and Carnwennan 40/1, Seinesational, Party Playboy and Billy Ray 50/1, Not So Sleepy, Nuits St Georges and Graceful Lady 66/1, Sovereign Duke 80/1, Hermoso Mundo 100/1

(Odds correct at 11.30am October 11)


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