It’s the Grand National, Derby and Royal Ascot all rolled into one, the race that stops a nation and an increasing magnet for runners from the UK, Ireland, Germany and France. It is, of course, the Emirates Melbourne Cup.
Melbourne Cup History and Trends
A Tuesday is an unusual day on which to run the biggest race in a country’s horse racing calendar but it’s a tradition that dates back to 1875 – and when have the Australians have ever been conventional?
The famous ‘Fashion on the Field’, which is now an integral part of the big day for many racegoers, is more of a modern phenomenon but that has been a regular feature for more than 50 years. Four horses have won the Melbourne Cup twice but only one – Makybe Diva in 2003, 2004 and 2005 – has won it three times.
Only one woman jockey has ever been successful – Michelle Payne on board Prince Of Penzance two years ago. Kathy O’Hara, who partners Single Gaze, is the only female riding this year. No horse starting from stall 18 has ever won the race, which doesn’t bode well for Gallante, and the draw is an important factor to consider. Other stalls not to have fared well in the last 30-plus years include six, 12, 15, 18 and 19. The outside berths – 23 and 24- have also been ‘coffin’ boxes.
No mare has won the race since Makyebe Diva. Two six-year-olds have won the race in the last 10 years but four and five-year-olds have the best record in the modern era. Eleven horses have completed the Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup double and Boom Time will attempt to join that list this Tuesday.
Carrying 8st 6lb, BIG DUKE may be just below the ideal weight range but looks overpriced at 25/1 with Stan James.
The pick of Darren Weir’s three runners, the five-year-old has come a long way since winning a Wetherby handicap in May of last year for Michael Wigham. Just beaten in the Group 1 Sydney Cup at Randwick on his last run over 2m, Brenton Avdulla’s mount was behind Libran and Cismontane when odds-on in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last time but didn’t have much room on the inside. Well drawn, he can reverse running over the extra half-mile.
With the suspension of Damien Oliver, Frankie Dettori has picked up a plum spare ride on Almandin. Jamie Spencer rides US Army Ranger for Joseph O’Brien and Olivier Peslier partners French raider Tiberian, who has won four of his five starts this year.
Marmelo is 8/1 with Stan James and looks the pick of the English-trained runners. Hughie Morrison’s stayer beat a subsequent winner at Deauville in August and was an eye-catcher over an inadequate trip in his prep race in the Caulfield Cup, though Hugh Palmer’s Wall Of Fire could also run well at around the 14/1 mark. All-conquering Aidan O’Brien runs Johannes Vermeer and he’s run well in two races in Australia, though is unproven over 2m.
Melbourne Cup Current Best Odds
Almandin and Marmelo 8/1, Johannes Vermeer 11/1, Humidor and Wall of Fire 14/1, Thomas Hobson, Max Dynamite and Rekindling 16/1, Red Cardinal 20/1, Amelie’s Star 22/1, Big Duke and Nakeeta 25/1, Hartnell and Tiberian 28/1, Boom Time and Ventura Storm 33/1, Cismontane, Libran and Single Gaze 50/1, Wicklow Brave, US Army Ranger and Bondi Beach 66/1, Gallante 100/1
