Hindsight is, of course, a wonderful thing. However, I’ll wager that the ECB instantly regretted the arrangement of last week’s one-off Test with Ireland in the wake of England’s World Cup win just days earlier.
The team selection rather pointed towards compromise but a huge blow to morale looked to be on the cards until the weather and Irish benevolence came to England’s rescue.
Joe Root was muttering afterwards about poor batting conditions but that wasn’t even an excuse for two batting collapses (which included a pair for Jonny Bairstow) and general indiscipline.
So what can England do to redress the balance ahead of the Ashes?
England Team News and Form
England have won just two of their last six Test series which have featured more than one match. But they’ve not lost a home series against any nation since Sri Lanka triumphed narrowly in a two-match series in 2014.
That said, their 4-1 defeat of India last summer greatly favoured Joe Root and his team. A subsequent whitewash in Sri Lanka came against a team in transition and old frailties against pace bowling resurfaced against the West Indies later.
There are real concerns about England’s top order. The selectors are taking a gamble on Jason Roy, who is a white-ball specialist, while Rory Burns looks totally out of sorts. Joe Denly will bat at three, ahead of Root. Bairstow needs to recover his World Cup form but the return of Ben Stokes and Jos Buttler, rested against Ireland, will strengthen the middle order.
There are no concern among the bowling ranks apart for injury. James Anderson and Stuart Broad will be praying the current overcast conditions last until the autumn as they are masters of swing. Chris Woakes has had a superb summer and so has Jofra Archer, who is the unknown factor. Sam Curran and Olly Stone provide decent back-up and Moeen Ali’s value shouldn’t be underestimated.
Australia Team News and Form
For the first time since that infamous ball-tampering scandal, Australia name Steve Smith, David Warner and Cameron Bancroft in the same squad.
We’ll never know how much real regret the trio feel over one of the darkest days in Australian cricket. Smith and Warner have lost their positions of authority but has the Aussies’ ‘win-at-all-costs’ policy been truly abandoned? In the pressure cauldron of an Ashes Test, will the morality wheels come off again?
Smith clearly hates not being captain but did play some excellent innings in the World Cup and looks in good nick. Warner also made hundreds but it might not help the Baggy Greens that both openers will be left-handed.
Like England, Australia’s strength is their bowling. Six seam bowlers have been selected in their Ashes squad. Peter Siddle, James Pattinson and Michael Neser are named alongside Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins and a recalled Josh Hazlewood.
They’ll be licking their lips in anticipation of a bowl at England’s fragile openers and this area is where the battle may be won or lost.
England v Australia Recent Ashes Series
Australia’s win in Sri Lanka over the winter was their first in a Test series since they beat England 4-0 in the Ashes at the beginning of 2018. In between they lost to South Africa, Pakistan and India. They’ve not won an Ashes series in England since 2001 but the swagger is back.
England v Australia Ashes Current Best Odds
England 10/11, Draw 7/1, Australia 6/4 (Odds correct at 2.15pm July 29)
England v Australia Predictions
Justin Langer will have the Aussies ready from the off and their preparation has probably gone more smoothly than England’s. But there will be enormous crowd pressure on Warner and Smith, their two key batsmen. If they fail, not even a superb bowling attack may be enough for the Aussies to retain the urn.
Root is the key for England. He will not want to be the first England captain to fail to win the Ashes in a home series in 20 years. Archer apart, England’s bowlers aren’t as quick as the Australians but there will utilise conditions to the full. Expect plenty of low-score innings and spinners Moeen Ali and Nathan Lyon to play more of a part that is anticipated.
England are taken to regain the Ashes, but only just! The series will probably swing one way and the other with the likelihood of few draws unless the weather intervenes. Floodlights and state-of-the-art covers will take care of most of that.
A 3-2 Correct Score in England’s favour is 7/1 with Betfred.
