England v Italy Odds & Betting Prediction Euro 2012

Lost stake refunds if quarter final goes to dreaded penalties

Parker - Gerrard - Ribery
Parker - Gerrard - Ribery © GEPA pictures

We are getting into the area of the dreaded penalty shoot out at Euro 2012 and with England battling and grinding their way through the tournament so far, England v Italy betting is being covered with a Money Back Special from online bookmaker Paddy Power. This last of the quarter finals and with England having already had their fans on the edge of their seats, are their penalties looming? Well, if the England v Italy game goes to penalties, the online bookmaker Paddy Power will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct score and Scorecast bets placed on the match. So there is a bit of coverage worth taking if you are looking at those markets for your Euro 2012 betting, it doesn’t matter who wins the shoot-out, just if that is how the game is to be decided, does the Money Back Special count. Paddy Power also offer a free £50 bet for new customers registering an account, as they will match the value of your first deposit with a free bet.

England v Italy Odds at Paddy Power
England 15/8, Draw 2/1, Italy 7/4

Well, most people are pencilling this one in as being the closest of the four semi finals. This Sunday showdown will decide who plays the winner of the Germany v Greece semi final. It hasn’t been a pretty route, but England have navigated their way to the quarter finals, and it will be only the second time that they have squared up to Italy in the continental finals. England fans may not want to look at the result though, as Italy won that match 1-0 in Turin in 1980 in the group stage. Looking further back at further tournament and tournament qualification meetings between the two nations, the reading gets a bit worse for the Three Lions. Out of six comings-together at the finals of major championships (and qualification matches), England have beaten Italy just once. That was back in qualifiers for ’78 World Cup, when goals from Kevin Keegan and Trevor Brooking earned a 2-0 win at Wembley. Anyway, we have moved on quite a bit from then and England actually just about edge this next meeting as favourites. Roy Hodgson’s men held their nerve to win Group D, thanks to a lot of good defensive work, and some immense luck along the way. Maybe luck is finally on the side of the English?

England really haven’t played any convincing attacking football. They are very weak offensively through the midfield and they are unable to put their foot on the ball, maintain possession and take the sting out of the opposition. However, after an understandably cagey opening draw against France, their games against Sweden and Ukraine were very typically English Premier League style matches. Not a lot of quality but plenty of passion and hard work. Perhaps the positive thing about England is that they are not trying to play pretty football, because they can’t, and therefore Roy Hodgson is not trying to make the players he has available do something which is going to take them out of their comfort zone. England are rolling on a great team spirit, a great unity and they are really fighting and grinding their results out. The return of Wayne Rooney didn’t exactly go with a bang, but he will be better with a game under belt and hopefully a little bit sharper to face Italy. England are almost playing like the old style Italy in a way, just sitting back, soaking up pressure and grabbing goals by hook or by crook to just get the job done. There is nothing for them to fear in facing the Italians, defensively England (who haven’t actually caught anyone offside at Euro 2012 yet) should be sound enough to stand up to the Italians, and one piece of magic up front could well steal this one for the Three Lions.

Italy, one of the dark horses of the tournament, thanks to their great progression and development under Cesare Prandelli, have produced what most people expected them to do. Solid enough performances with a bit of attacking flair, but they are just lacking that extra touch of quality up front, and a little bit of leadership at the back. Italy can be gotten at, and because they will likely be the ones dictating the quarter final with possession and their eagerness to press forward like we saw them do against Spain, there could be chances for England on the break. Italy do lack a little something going forward, but not doubt Man City striker Mario Balotelli will be keen to bully John Terry and his own club team mate Joleon Lescott. They will be without defender Giorgio Chiellini because of a thigh injury and the way the new Italy play, is to press forward and play an open game. They have been guilty though of sitting back just too much once they have taken the lead in games. It happened against Spain and against Croatia in the group stage and there should be openings for England.

England v Italy Prediction: There is a good feel about the England camp, and like Chelsea in the Champions League, they seem to have luck on their side. Italy are a better footballing side, no questions there. Italy like to press high and get forward, so England may have to hang on again for long periods, but from set plays and quick breaks, England can sneak this. England to win by a one goal margin is priced at 3/1 with online bookmaker Bet365.