Greece’s win at Euro 2004 and Leicester City’s recent Premier League title success suggests it’s dangerous to write off too many sides. What made Leicester City’s title success all the more remarkable is that underdogs are renowned for sometimes springing a cup surprise. However, to sustain strong form for months on end was something that nobody could have forecasted.
An outsider winning Euro 2016 doesn’t need to win anywhere near as many games as Leicester managed in England this season. Indeed, they can qualify without winning a group game and the knockout stage can involve progress through victory in penalty shoot-outs.
Casting out minds back twelve years, Greece began Euro 2004 with a shock 2-1 win over Portugal before a 1-1 draw with Spain and then a 2-1 reverse at the hands of Russia. So just the one victory to reach the last eight.
The Greeks then edged out France by a 1-0 scoreline before doing the same against Czech Republic after extra-time. The final saw Greece manage another 1-0 win, this time against hosts Portugal whom they beat for the second time.
So that remains a successful blueprint for any team hoping to land victory at the European Championships this summer. On a slightly different scale, Atletico Madrid’s path to the Champions League final this season illustrates that a team with slightly modest resources can punch above their weight and knock out powerhouses such as Barcelona and Bayern Munich.
It is clear that hosts France can triumph this summer, while a victory for Germany or Spain would be in keeping with their recent triumphs in major tournaments.
After that, there would be an element of surprise if another team won. England have not won anything since 1966 although they could be powered by a series of players who have helped Tottenham punch above their weight this season.
The same applies to Belgium, who will enjoy the services of Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld, the Spurs duo who have been rock-like at the back all season. They also boast Kevin de Bruyne who looks set to outshine Eden Hazard based on club form this term.
That leaves nineteen teams and Italy, Portugal and Croatia have all demonstrated in recent tournaments that they have the pedigree to go deep in a major tournament.
Most would happily take these eight teams against the rest, although it appears that Austria could be the dark horse and they have now shortened to 33/1 (bet365) to claim what would be a remarkable success.
This is a nation who has only featured in one European Championships and that was as co-hosts at Euro 2008. However, qualifying was a highly-impressive affair and there are several highly-talented players in the squad.
Marc Janko has a one-in-two goal ratio for the national team, Marko Arnautovic is one of the best players in the Stoke City squad and David Alaba is the jewel in the crown. Then there is Christian Fuchs, captain of the team and Leicester’s Premier League title-winning left-back.
Austria are the first of several teams that are likely to make the last sixteen stage and then go for broke against a more-established side for a place in the quarter finals of the competition.
Switzerland and Poland hover at the 66/1 mark with bet365 at the moment, with the Poles thrust into a lively-looking group which also features Germany and Ukraine. It’s worth noting that they did manage to beat the Germans in Warsaw during qualifying and certainly won’t be in awe of them in France.
Even a team like Wales can’t automatically be ruled out at odds of 66/1. Indeed, Chris Coleman’s side fit the right sort of mould when it comes to a Greek-like victory and the Euro 2004 winners certainly didn’t have a player like Gareth Bale to wreak havoc.
The team spirit within the Welsh camp ultimately helped them to get the better of Belgium in qualifying, while this was a difficult section that also included the likes of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Israel.
Therefore, teams at the foot of the betting market should be written off lightly. We are prepared to draw a line through Albania who had some fortune to come through qualification after a controversial clash with rivals Serbia, even if their odds of 500/1 are ten times smaller than the 5000/1 about Leicester winning the Premier League title.
Northern Ireland are another side who will struggle to make any sort of impact. They may have topped their section although Michael O’Neill really does have to plumb the depths of the Football League to find eligible players and there is so much goalscoring reliance on Kyle Lafferty.
Hungary won just four of their ten qualifying matches in the same section as the Northern Irish before coming through the play-offs to snatch their place in the twenty-four. Meanwhile, the Romanians had an amazing defensive record in qualifying of only conceding two goals in ten matches. However, they now face a strong calibre of opponent.
Slovakia are the other team who are likely to struggle, although we give every other team a fair chance at Euro 2016 this summer. Strange results happen in knockout football and the fact that there are three rounds to the final leaves open the prospect of more shocks than before.
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The Republic of Ireland showed when beating Germany 1-0 at the Aviva Stadium during qualifying that they can produce a performance on the day capable of defeating any side. Meanwhile, Iceland are no mugs after winning a group that featured the hapless Netherlands and they can belie their minnow status by having a surprise impact.
Turkey, Sweden and Czech Republic have all got the capabilities to reach the last eight stage from their groups. From that point onwards, we know that international tournaments can often start to get cagey and a moment of magic can send teams to further success.
