The first knockout stage of the UEFA Europa League fires up this week with most of the action on Thursday, February 15th. There is limited British interest going into the Round of 32. Arsenal are the only side from England still in contention for the European silverware and they are joined by fellow Brits Celtic who took a drop down from the UEFA Champions League after a rough time in the group stage.
While Arsenal are trading as one of the front-runners to land the title ahead of the Round of 32, Celtic are seen as nothing more than big outsiders. But among the leading pack are some of Europe’s heavyweight who took a surprising fall from the Champions League group stage and heading them all is Spain’s Atletico Madrid who are 7/2 favourites at Betfair* (betting odds taken on January 13th at 5:30 p.m.)
Europa League Winner odds
Atletico Madrid 7/2, Arsenal 5/1, Napoli 10/1, Borussia Dortmund 10/1, AC Milan 12/1, Lazio 14/1, RB Leipzig 20/1, Lyon 20/1, Zenit 20/1, Villarreal 25/1, Sporting Lisbon 25/1, Real Sociedad 25/1, bar 33/1
Key Round of 32 Draws
Napoli v RB Leipzig
Italian giants Napoli, who missed out on qualification from their Champions League group to Manchester City and Shakhtar Donetsk get a run against European debutantes Leipzig in the round of 32. This is the sixth time in eight seasons that Napoli have found themselves at this stage of the competition. The Italians hold a W4 L3 record against German opposition at home and they have won just one of their last five. But they are in good home form this season, winning three of their four home games in Europe and in the Europa League specifically, they are unbeaten in 13 home games now. Leipzig are enjoying their season in Europe after finishing runners-up to Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga last season. They were also in the group stage of the Champions League, but finished third behind Besiktas and Porto, landing their first ever European away win in a 4-1 victory out at Monaco. Their lack of experience as they head to Naples is probably going to be telling and the Italians are value to land the home win at 19/20 with Betfair* (betting odds taken on January 13th at 6:32 p.m.) and they are favourites to get through to the next round.
Lyon v Villarreal
This is probably the headline draw of the round of 32, a real top clash between two of the sides who have the credentials to go all the way and win the Europa League outright. Lyon do have a bit of extra incentive because this season’s Europa League final is being held at their home. This is a tough match up for the French side though, and they finished second to Atlanta in the group stage. Lyon’s record against Spanish sides (they have never met Villarreal before) is W9 D8 L13, but at home, it is a favourable W6 D4 L5. Lyon are currently unbeaten in eight home games in Europe with wins in six of them and they have won their last four home games in the knockout stages of the Europa League. They have only one clean sheet in eight Europa League home games and that could be a concern. Villarreal topped their group in the first round and they are unbeaten out on the road in seven games now in Europe. They have won their last two away from home. In the history of the Europa League, no team has won more games or scored more goals than Villarreal have done. This should be an epic tie and over 2.5 goals at Betfair for 4/5 odds looks great* (betting odds taken on January 13th at 6:32 p.m.). With the second leg in Spain, Villarreal are the ones to back to get through the tie to the next round.
Copenhagen v Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid are the outright favourites to win the Europa League. They had a really disappointing Champions League group stage campaign, they just weren’t at the races and were beaten out by Chelsea and Roma in a tough group. They really just never showed up but as the season has worn on, they have gotten better and better. This is the first time in five years that Atletico have been in the competition and their overall European form isn’t great. They’ve only gone W2 D5 L2 in their last nine European games home and away, drawing all three road games in the Champions League group stage (two 0-0 results and a 1-1 tie). Still, they are favourites here as they face up to Copenhagen who have failed to win a game against a Spanish side in ten previous attempts. Copenhagen were in the group stage of the Europa League and came through as runners-up. They have taken a clean sheet in each of their last three home games and this is likely to be a low scoring game. Under 2.5 goals is the best way to cover the first leg, but ultimately Atletico are likely to qualify.
Celtic v Zenit
Celtic had a pretty miserable time of things in the Champions League group stage, losing all three of their games in Glasgow. This is a really tough tie as well for the Scottish Champions as they head down into the Europa League. Celtic have failed to win any of their last eleven European home games (outside of qualification matches) and have lost each of their last five. It’s not pretty and they only have a W1 D1 L1 home record against Russian opponents at Celtic Park as well. Zenit breezed through their Europa League group, chalking up sixteen points and netting seventeen goals along the way, which was better than anyone else managed in the stage. Their only previous meeting with a Scottish side was a triumph over Rangers in the 2007/08 UEFA Cup final. Zenit are unbeaten in their last seven European games now, winning six of those and that is without having kept a clean sheet in any of their last five. They are going to be a handful for Celtic to handle and the Russians are actually nice value at 8/15 with Betfair To Qualify from the tie* (betting odds taken on January 13th at 6:32 p.m.).
Ostersunds v Arsenal
Swedish underdogs Ostersunds who are making their European debut, did tremendously well in getting out of their group to make it through to the knockout stage of the Europa League. It has been a dream run for them and they have been in pretty sharp form at home as well along the way. Of their six European home games, they have won five of them to nil. The exception was a 2-2 draw against Atletico on match day three. So that’s some good form and they created history by becoming the first Swedish side to make it to this stage of the competition. Arsenal are in their first ever Europa League campaign and breezed through their group. Each season they have faced a Swedish side in Europe, Arsenal have gone on to reach the final (losing each of those finals though). Arsenal are W3 D1 against Swedish sides and this could be a tricky away evening for them, but their experience should see them land a draw at least and the Gunners should have enough over the two legs to sail through.
Borussia Dortmund v Atalanta
This is a big duel between the Germans and Italians. Atalanta were partly responsible for Everton’s failure to get out of the group stage as they produced some fine performances. They do make one of the better outsider choices in the Europa League this season. Atalanta remains unbeaten in the competition this season and with Dortmund a bit out of form, not having won a single European match this season (D2 L6), then the Germans are going to have a tough time of things. This will be the first meeting between the two sides but Dortmund hold a W10 D4 L17 record against Italian opposition while for Atalanta this is only the second time that they have faced a German side, knocking out Cologne back in the 1990/91 UEFA Cup 2-1 on aggregate. With Dortmund having lost three of their last four European home games and a bit out of sorts, Atalanta are great value to avoid defeat in the first and an Atalanta-Draw Double Chance at Betfair is at 11/10* (betting odds taken on January 13th at 6:32 p.m.). The Italians are well worth considering to back to qualify from this tie.
