We are going to look at the pre-season odds on the most likely outcomes of the top leagues around Europe and find ways to search for some value beyond outright singles. Last season across Europe ended up somewhat predictable really with strong pre-season favourites sweeping the titles in England, France, Spain, Germany and Italy.
Those are the league which we are going to be looking at again and for the ante-post markets on each of those, we are seeing the same pattern again. Namely that the bookmakers are not expecting any major upsets anywhere and that the only one of those leagues which is likely to produce a tight battle would be over in Spain between Real Madrid and Barcelona
England
Manchester City are the 8/13 favourites* (betting odds taken from July 19th, 2018 at 6:23 pm) to go and land the Premier League title in the 2018/19 season. Pep Guardiola’s men made pretty light work of things last season as everything came together so well for them. They swooped early in the summer to bring in Riyad Mahrez from Leicester which looks as if it could be a terrific addition to the squad, but it would put some pressure on Raheem Sterling probably.
City won the league last season by 19 points over their rivals Manchester United and that is a huge gap to try and close. That is the kind of thing that takes time and the dominance that the Citizens had last season is likely to spill over into this season. Manchester United may again be hampered by the tactics of Jose Mourinho, while Tottenham are lacking something to make them truly competitive in a Premier League title race.
Chelsea and Arsenal have rebuilding to do under new managers, so it is Liverpool who makes for the interesting main contenders therefore. That is because of an improvement in the goalkeeping department through Alisson Becker which they have made over the summer as well as bolstering their squad with the arrival of Naby Keita, Fabinho and a bargain in Xherdan Shaqiri. Depth is being added but still, we don’t see them toppling City.
Man City 8/13, Liverpool 9/2, Man Utd 13/2. Chelsea 14/1, Tottenham 16/1, Arsenal 20/1, bar 250/1
* (betting odds taken from July 19th, 2018 at 6:23 pm)
Spain
You can’t of course look past the big two of Barcelona and Real Madrid. Barcelona powered their way to the league title last year and they almost did it with an unbeaten season as well. That went south as they surprisingly lost their penultimate game 5-4 against Levante. Still, the Catalans won all but ten of their games last season and they are looking pretty stable. They seem to be well settled and boss Ernesto Valverde probably isn’t going to spend too big in the summer, not in comparison to what their rivals Real Madrid are going to do.
Madrid clearly needs a shake-up after finishing third in the Spanish top flight last season and a massive seventeen points back of Barcelona. There was just too much instability from them at the back through the early part of the season and when it came down to them recognising that they had no chance of overhauling Barcelona, they fully switched their focus to the serious business of winning the UEFA Champions League again. They are entering a new era with Cristiano Ronaldo having been sold off, expect them to spend heavily, but if they do would it all come together immediately for new boss Julen Lopetegui? Maybe not. We like the more stable Barcelona.
Barcelona 8/11, Real Madrid 11/8, Atletico Madrid 14/1, Valencia 100/1, bar 150/1
Germany
Bayern Munich topped the Bundesliga once again last season and that was by a margin of a ridiculous 21 points over Schalke. They have a new manager in Niko Kovac and really they are so strong compared to the rest of the league it’s hard to not back them for more domestic success. As long as they keep a hold of their scoring threat of Robert Lewandowski, who has been linked with Chelsea, then the Bavarians aren’t likely to let their crown slip. That is without doing a great deal of business in the summer transfer market.
We do like the direction in which Lucien Favre is taking Borussia Dortmund and they have some great young players there like Max Philipp, Jadon Sancho and Christian Pulisic and you blend that in with the spattering of experience that they have then they are set up pretty well. It is likely to be enough to get the better of Bayern Munich though? Probably not. The same can be said of RB Leipzig who would need a couple of real marquee signings to step it up.
Bayern Munich 1/6, Borussia Dortmund 11/2, RB Leipzig 33/1, Schalke 40/1, Bayer Leverkusen 66/1, Hoffenheim 100/1, bar 200/1
* (betting odds taken from July 19th, 2018 at 6:23 pm)
France
This is the most straightforward of all the big five leagues in Europe to call. It is PSG all the way and they aren’t going to fall from grace anytime soon. They have a ridiculously good squad and the rest of the Ligue 1 just isn’t up to scratch at all. There have been a lot of rumours that Real Madrid are going to come in and try to pry Neymar away from them, but even if that happens PSG wouldn’t exactly be short of talent. They would also have more than enough to go and spend to fill any holes that they may have floating around. They will be holding on to Kylian Mbappe and Edinson Cavani and they are going to be dominant again for new boss Thomas Tuchel. Monaco have been sellers this summer while Lyon look the better bet to at least of some kind of challenge to PSG.
PSG 1/10, Lyon 12/1, Monaco 14/1, Marseille 14/1, Bordeaux 250/1, Montpellier 350/1, bar 500/1
* (betting odds taken from July 19th, 2018 at 6:23 pm)
Italy
For the first time in a long time, Juventus were under pressure last season in the Serie A title race. That pressure was from Maurizio Sarri Napoli. With Sarri having moved over to Chelsea the club have brought in Carlo Ancelotti. But there could be something of an exodus happening with Sarri gone with it starting with midfielder Jorginho who went to Chelsea and Dries Mertens could be following him there. So Napoli may have some trouble sustaining their status of last season.
Juventus showed their quality and class last season to get over the finish line and wrestle the title back into their grasp, despite losing against Napoli with five games to go. They held on, didn’t crumble and they are keeping Massimiliano Allegri around as manager and made what will likely be the biggest signing of the summer in Europe (unless Neymar moves to Real Madrid) as they captured Cristiano Ronaldo from Real Madrid. If they can keep the bulk of their squad together from last season, and there’s no reason why they shouldn’t, throw Ronaldo in there and despite his ageing legs, that’s a huge boon for Juventus’s title defence.
Juventus 2/5, Napoli 6/1, Roma 13/2, Inter Milan 7/1, AC Milan 20/1, Lazio 50/1, Atalanta 200/1, bar 250/1
* (betting odds taken from July 19th, 2018 at 6:23 pm)
Euro Big 5 Multiples
So there are the odds for the forthcoming seasons across Europe. Let’s just list the favourites
Man City 8/13
Barcelona 8/11
Bayern Munich 1/6
PSG 1/10
Juventus 2/5
* (betting odds taken from July 19th, 2018 at 6:23 pm)
So you have some pretty strong odds-on prices there and there really isn’t going to be a lot of value in backing them as singles. Imagine having to wait a whole season for a £10 bet on Man City at 8/13 for a profit return of £6.15 at the end of the season. It is hardly worth the wait at all for that return. That is one of the better-priced options among the league winners in the big five league as well too.
Big Five Accumulator
So this is an occasion where you might want to think about creating some multiple bets. Remember though because you are looking at such short odds you are not talking about huge margins here. If you were to throw together a five-fold accumulator then you would be looking at a £40.13 profit from the five selections with a 10 stake. So that is much better than backing them all as win singles. But of course, you are increasing your risk with needing all five selections to win and nothing less.
So how about coverage?
In dropping PSG at such terrible odds you could look at the options of a Yankee or Lucky 15 on the other four short priced options. These are forms of Full Cover Bets. They are both built off four selections as well, the difference between them being that single bets are covered in a Lucky 15 and not included in a Yankee. Frankly, because the odds on the single bets aren’t great it’s worth passing them and looking at the Yankee.
Remember a Yankee is 11 separate bets created from those four selections 6 doubles, 4 trebles and a fourfold accumulator. So whatever you base stake is, in this case, £1 for our example, that would be £11 played and you would be looking at almost doubling your money with a profit of £19.18 coming back if all four of those wins. The difference between that and the acca is if say just Bayern Munich at 1/6 odds lost, you would still get a little bit of profit back (albeit £0.38) however if you had done the acca then you would be out of pocket.
So the bit of coverage through a Full Cover Bet like a Yankee on four of the five big coming through offers a little extra insurance and less risk against the stake. You could, of course, look at a Canadian or a Lucky 31 if you wanted to get all five of the selections in one multiple bet. Just remember the stake will increase and here is an example.
A Canadian (also known as a Super Yankee) is 26 separate bets: 10 doubles, 10 trebles, 5 fourfolds and a fivefold accumulator. So your stake goes up significantly but the coverage of your stake is there should only one of the selections lose. It is that which makes it more appealing than just throwing those unappealing odds-on selections of league winners from across Europe into one big bet accumulator bet.
It is always wise to keep your options open.
