Eurovision Song Contest 2019 Predictions & Winner Odds

Dutch favourite a false starter for Eurovision 2019?

Who needs a top weekend of sports betting when you have the Eurovision Song Contest, right? Right? Well, the famous singing competition is back for its annual blast and this year’s edition is being hosted in Tel Aviv after Israel topped the charts twelve months ago in Lisbon with the song “Toy” by Netta. That result surprised probably zero people.

This year it is all eyes on the Netherlands who are the 2/1 outright favourites* (betting odds taken from bet365 on May 15th, 2019 at 2:23 am).

Eurovision Song Contest 2019 Winner Odds*

Netherlands 2/1
Sweden 5/1
Australia 6/1
Russia 9/1
France 9/1
Azerbaijan 12/1
Iceland 14/1
Italy 16/1
Switzerland 22/1
Malta 28/1
Greece 40/1
Cyprus 50/1
Czech Republic 66/1
100/1 bar
* (betting odds taken from bet365 on May 15th, 2019 at 2:23 am)

The hype is on Holland

It is Dutch representative Duncan Laurence with his song “Arcade” that is all the rage at the moment. There really is no identikit winner of the Eurovision Song Contest, because times change, trends change and it is a competition which clearly tries to reflect what is going on in social culture. If Laurence lands it on the weekend then it will be the fifth Eurovision title for the country. He found his footing performing on the Dutch version of ‘The Voice” reaching the semifinals there in 2014. His song “Arcade” has been a huge hit on Youtube, viewed over 8 million times.

Australia and Sweden put the pressure on

Australia look to have thrown a strong hat into the ring for this edition with Kate Miller-Heidke performing ‘Zero Gravity’ which is a kind of strange operatic dance track. This has got a bit of momentum behind it and this one doesn’t actually feel like it is all about the song. It’s about Miller-Heidke as a performer, and the upbeat track features something like a bit of yodelling in there. Whatever it is, the massive falsetto that she delivers is a key component of the song and really makes it stand out. It’s a bit on the weird side perhaps, but it’s popular and Australia are 6/1 to bring it home.

Sweden are sandwiching the Netherlands and Australia at the head of the Eurovision 2019 betting market. It actually feels to us that it has a stronger chance of going all the way and winning than the outright favourite does. The Netherlands entry is a bit run of the mill about broken hearts, whereas Sweden’s ‘Too Late For Love”, despite starting off in much the same vein as the Netherlands, goes up through the gears for a fist-pumping crescendo of a catchy tune that no-one is going to forget in a hurry. That could tip it ahead of the Netherlands and if the judges are too weirded-out by the Australian entrant, then Seeden look great value at 5/1 odds* (betting odds taken from bet365 on May 15th, 2019 at 2:23 am)

Other Contenders

France have a strong contender going in this one as well. It’s about as Eurovision of a song as a song for Eurovision song could get. There’s lots of piano, lots of power and raw emotion going on in there. There is a mix of English in there as well from Bilal Hassani with her song “Roi”, which may go over favourably with the judges.

Russia are at 9/1 odds* (betting odds taken from bet365 on May 15th, 2019 at 2:23 am), the same as France are and they always seem to have their voting bloc behind them. Let’s not forget that there is politics going on with the votes handed out at Eurovision. What Russia have this year is ‘Scream’ by Sergey Lazarev who was one of the front runners for the 2016 edition.

Many thought that the only reason that Lazarev didn’t win that year, was because of political tensions between Russia and Ukraine that had gone on. Regardless of politics, this year’s entry for Russia doesn’t seem anywhere near as good as his ‘You are the only one’ effort from 2016, which arguably should have won.

Azerbaijan are a rising force in the world of Eurovision and they seem to take it pretty darn seriously. They were the 2011 winners of the competition and are looking to make further inroads into creating history. Sure the song ‘Truth’ is leaning well over into the cheesy side of things, but it’s a pretty catch ditto nonetheless. It’s something pretty accessible.

Home contenders

The UK is being represented by Michael Rice with ‘Bigger Than Us’. Not sure where this is going to go, but a flood of points probably isn’t going to be heading the way of the UK, who automatically get a free pass to the Grand Final as one of the big five nations in the competition. It is just as well because this 150/1 shot probably wouldn’t have made it through a semi-final* (betting odds taken from bet365 on May 15th, 2019 at 2:23 am).

The same kind of goes for Ireland who go in the second semi-final. Sarah McTernans is up to bat for the Irish with the song “22” and for a country with such a fine tradition and history in the competition, this one falls a long way short. It’s hard to see it reaching the Grand Finals because it is a bit of one-note miss hit.

Best Outsiders

San Marino’s Serhat with his song ‘Say Na Na Na’ can’t help bring a smile to your face. It’s catchy, it has a prerequisite amount of lyrical cheese to it and it’s just a bundle of disco fun really. Serhat himself is like a cross between Pitbull and Right Said Fred and considering that San Marino were huge outside odds (the rank outsiders at one point), but got through the first semi-final, then well, you never know.

Cyprus are our other dark horses. They have Tamta with the song “Replay” going for them, having already come through the semifinals. They are now at 50/1 to take the title* (betting odds taken from bet365 on May 15th, 2019 at 2:23 am). The artist is a well-known face, at least in Georgia and Greece where she has been a judge on the X Factor in both countries. “Replay” is a full-on party song and that is never a bad thing when the energy is high.

Predictions

Sweden may well have this in the bag. It’s just the perfect blend of a slow starter, winding up into a brilliant finish. For us, it has the edge over the Netherlands and it is a much better price as well to be taking on. At 5/1 odds, it has every chance of getting its hands on the prize* (betting odds taken from bet365 on May 15th, 2019 at 2:23 am).

Just because of the hype that it has attracted, Australia seems to be the next best option. It’s a totally different beast to that of the Swedish entry and it will remain to be seen whether that is a good thing or a bad thing.

At the end of the day, we don’t see the over-hyped Dutch entry getting the win because it’s a song that has been heard time and time again and doesn’t really build up to anything or go anywhere.


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