We’re just a few days away from the first tee-shot of the 2017 U.S. Open and the favourites to win the prestigious golf competition are beginning to emerge from the pack. Even after Sergio Garcia’s relatively surprising win at the 2017 Masters Tournament – it was the Spaniard’s first major success in 74 attempts – the odds are shaping up to suggest that the in-form players who make up the top ranking spots are going to dominate the second major of the year.
With that in mind, is your best bet to back the bookie’s favourite or are there some outsiders who could be worth keeping an eye on? And if the outright winner is too close to call, what other betting options should you look at if you want to make a buck or two.
Erin Hills Course Preview
The 117th U.S. Open Championship will be played from the 15th to the 18th of June at Erin Hills in Wisconsin. This is the first U.S. Open to be played in Wisconsin and the course presents some stern challenges to the field with its make-up of undulating terrain of hills and valleys with tall fine fescue in the rough areas and a lack of trees to provide shelter from the wind. To look at Erin Hills on an ordinary day, it would be easy to mistake it for a wild coastal links in the UK rather than the usual tamed and cultivated appearance of golf courses in the United States.
What does this mean for the golfers and, more importantly, what does this mean from a punter’s point of view? In the bluntest of terms, no-one really knows. The simple fact is that this relatively new course (it was opened in 2006) has never hosted a top professional competition before, meaning that the first round of this event will be the litmus test for players and punters alike. So, you might want to wait until the first day is over before you make any calls on who the ultimate winner will be.
On the flip side, while it might be tempting to think that an untamed and untested course will provide the perfect conditions for some upsets, it would be wise to remember that the official rankings are made up from many results from over a long period of time which include a mixture of different courses. So, if a player is at the top of the golf rankings, they have earned their place by proving that they have the skills to perform under the challenging conditions that Erin Hills might provide.
Four-Way Fight for the Win?
When it comes to looking at the outright markets for the winner of the 2017 U.S. Open at Erin Hills, it’s safe to say that the bookies are banking on the top ranked players to come good. Plus, it also seems as if the popular sports betting sites have tried to cover themselves by shortening the odds on some outsiders who have a good record playing links style golf.
Let’s have a look at the odds by breaking down the players into the following three categories: main contenders, outsiders with a chance and big name dark horses.
Main contenders
If the implied probability of the bookmakers’ odds are anything to go by, then we could be looking at a four-way battle on the final day of the 2017 U.S. Open. Great for neutral spectators but probably not ideal if you have money on the outcome and a nervous disposition!
The four golfers who are favourites to be in contention before a shot has been played are Dustin Johnson at 8/1, Rory McIlroy at 12/1, Jordan Spieth at 14/1 and Jason Day at 16/1 – all of whom have been mainstays in the top 10 rankings for the past couple of years. Realistically, all four of these players have the long and short game to master Erin Hills, and these big hitter will certainly have an advantage on a course that is longer than the average golf course at a length of 7,812 and a par of 72.
Who is our money on? If we had to choose one of the four then it would be a toss up between DJ and McIlroy with a leaning towards the latter simply because it would provide better value. Our thinking behind this is that the Northern Irishman could feel at home of the course that has a very Irish Links feel to it while his American rival – although fully competent to handle the challenges of Erin Hills – could be a bit rusty after returning from a back injury that forced him to miss the Masters earlier in the year.
Outsiders With a Chance
As ever with a major golf tournament, there are plenty of outside favourites who have every chance of lifting the trophy providing that they put in some blinding rounds (and also providing that the top runners have some shocking rounds…). Some of names who make up this uncertain middle ground include top 10 ranked golfers such as Jon Rahm (22/1), Rickie Fowler (22/1), Sergio Garcia (28/1), Hideki Matsuyama (30/1), Henrik Stenson (33/1), and Alexander Noren (66/1).
Dispersed in between those top players are some other contenders who might not grace the top spots of the official ranking lists, but can never be ruled out for various reasons. Justin Rose, for example, is sitting at 25/1 after a strong performance in the 2017 Masters at Augusta while the likes of Adam Scott, Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka can be found with odds of 33/1, 40/1 and 51/1 respectively.
One of the more interesting situations is whether or not Phil Mickelson will even play in the tournament since he was prioritised attending his daughter’s high school graduation over teeing off on the first day at Erin Hills. However, the three-time Masters winner has been giving a tee-off time and some bookies have pencilled him in with 40/1 odds of winning this year’s U.S. Open.
Big Names
If you want to make some profit from this tough-to-call U.S. Open, then we wouldn’t recommend backing a long-shot. However, we realise that there are punters out there who don’t mind splashing a few quid on their favourite golfers, even if those players are a bit out of form so to speak. Some popular names that you will find further down the odds table include Paul Casey at 66/1, Bubba Watson at 80/1, Lee Westwood at 100/1, Graeme McDowell at 150/1, Jim Furyk at 250/1, Danny Willet at 250/1 and Angel Cabrera at 500/1.
Other Betting Options
The question on everyone’s lips before the competition (and hopefully up until the 18th hole of the last day) will be “who’s going to win?” However, there are many other betting options to consider beyond the outright winner markets.
– Top 5 Finish – If you are fairly confident that one of the top players will be there or there abouts on the final day but don’t have the conviction to back them as the winners, then you can place a bet at shorter odds for them to finish in the top five. Dustin Johnson is currently at 7/4 with Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth at 5/2
– First Round Leader – This one will be very tough to call since it’s hard to say how the course at Erin Hills will play on the first day. Nevertheless, this could be a good option for punters who don’t want to wait around for four days to see if they have won or not. Dustin Johnson leads this market at 12/1 with McIlroy and Spieth on 18/1.
– Play Off? 17 major golf tournaments have been decided in a playoff since the year 2000, so a tie-break can never be written off. However, will the 72 par course at Erin Hills see one player manage to break away from the pack? You can place a bet at William Hill on there being a playoff at odds of 3/1 whilst the odds of no playoff are 2/9.
