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German Federal Election Betting Odds – Merkel favourite to stay Chancellor

Merkel stays on the Right side of electors

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On September 24th, 2017 the Federal Elections will be held in Germany and this will be to elect the members of the Bundestag. That is the federal constitutional and legislative body in Germany, similar to the British House of Commons. For a party to hold the majority there are 300 seats needed as there 598 seats up for grabs in total.

It is the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union which is currently holding power under Angela Merkel, who has been the party leader since 2000. At the last election, the CDU/CSU won 311 seats and they currently hold 309 of them still going back into September’s election. At Ladbrokes, the party is a 1/14 odds on favourite to still be holding power after this 2017 German elections.

The closest challengers is the SPD, led by Martin Schulz, who currently hold 193 seats in the Bundestag, but they are a massive 6/1 price at Ladbrokes to seize power. Since opinion polling following the 2013 election, current Chancellor Angela Merkel has maintained a pretty solid double-digit lead over the SPD but there was a period back at the start of 2017 when Schultz took over leadership, the gap was cut down.

German Federal Elections 2017 Infographic

The win that the CDU/CSU recorded four years was their best triumph in terms of margins since 1990 as they collected nearly 42% of all voted there which gave them, almost half of the seats in the Bundestag. They went and teamed up with the SPD to form a coalition for the third time. As well then as being a battle for Bundestag control the question of Chancellor is up as well in this one. Schultz is a massive 7/1 price at Ladbrokes to be the Next Chancellor following the elections, with Angela Merkel in at 1/12 to continue on in power.

So this isn’t really even looking like much of a two-horse battle really with Merkel’s position and party looking pretty safe to go and stay in power. The Left, which is based on democratic socialism, currently holds 64 seats with the Green party holding 63. Four years ago the FDP (Free Democratic Party) failed to win a single seat for the first time in its history and the AFD brought up the year with just 4.7% of the votes which wasn’t enough to get a seat either.

Just to highlight the strengths of Merkel’s party, the centre-left Government of one of Germany’s biggest states, lost a majority when one of the lawmakers defected over to Angela Merkel’s conservatives. The coalition in the state between the SPD and the Greens had a one seat majority until Elks Testen left to join Merkel’s Christian Democrats. That was a major blow to the struggling left ahead of the elections. Earlier this year in opinion polls the center-left party was neck and neck with Merkel’s party, but now the CDU/CSU holds that double-digit lead against at such a crucial time.

It has been a big year for German elections with Frank-Walter Steinmeier winning the presidential election back in February, taking over from Joachim Gauck who announced that he wouldn’t be standing anymore. So the outcome of the German elections looks pretty much set in stone here. But punters only have to look back at recent political upsets like Brexit and Donald Trump winning the US Election and wonder.

Next German Chancellor Odds

Angela Merkel 1/12, Martin Schulz 7/1, Frauke Petry 40/1, bar 50/1

German Federal Election Odds

CDU/CSU 1/14, SPD 15/2, AfD 40/1, bar 100/1

Odds Development German Federal Elections 2017

From the above chart you can see just what a development in the odds that has taken place since the begging of March. Realistically the AfD were never in the picture anyway at 8.50 but look how close the SPG and the CDU/CSU were at the start of March, 2.75 and 1.62 respectively. But since then they have drifted apart and it has been more the huge price drift on the SPD that has split the market, with them out at 8.00 towards the end of July. naturally that means that the odds on the CDU/CSU getting another win have shortened.

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