Giro d’Italia Betting 2018 Winner Odds & Predictions

Competitive Giro field offers deep value

Sports Betting

The first big cycling event of the year gets underway on May 4th, 2018 and this time the Giro d’Italia is going to create some history. For the first time, it will be starting in Israel as the first leg will be going from Jerusalem with a 9.7 km individual time trial. There will be two more stages in Israel before the Giro goes to Italy for the final 18 stages of the race. Starting in a foreign country is nothing new, every other year since 2010 is has been started outside of Italy. Amsterdam, Herning, Belfast and Utrecht have all hosted the openings recently, but this will be the first time that is has started outside of Europe.

Teams

There are 22 teams in attendance at the Giro d’Italia 2018 and those are comprised of the 18 UCI World Teams and four wildcards from the UCI Professional Continental teams. The starting number for each of the teams in attendance is now eight after a rule change, coming down one from nine.

Giro d'Italia 2018 Infographic

Giro d’Italia 2018 Winner Odds*

Chris Froome 13/8, Tom Dumoulin 13/8, Miguel Angel Lopez 5/1, Thibaut Pinot 6/1, Fabio Aru 7/1, bar 20/1* (betting odds taken at 3:48 a.m. on April 30th, 2018)

Froome Rides for Team Sky

Team Sky have selected Chris Froome for the Giro d’Italia 2018. He is still under investigation after he was found to have elevated levels of salbutamol during last year’s win at La Vuelta. That is asthma medication and it’s a listed substance, so he is free to carry on racing even with the ongoing investigation as he tries to clear his name. Why with this cloud over him is the four-time Tour de France winner putting himself under scrutiny in challenging for the title? Because he could become just the seventh rider ever to win all three of the Grand Tours. He needs the Giro d’Italia to complete that (that is if, at the end of his ongoing investigation he doesn’t become just the second rider since Alberto Contador to be stripped of a Grand Tour title).

2018 Giro d’Italia stages

Stage 1: May 4, Jerusalem (Isr) – Jerusalem (Isr) 9.7 km individual time trial
Stage 2: May 5, Haifa (Isr) – Tel Aviv (ISR) 167 km
Stage 3: May 6, Be’er Sheva (Isr) – Eilat (ISR) 229 km
Rest day: May 7
Stage 4: May 8, Catania – Caltagirone 191 km
Stage 5: May 9, Agrigento – Santa Ninfa (Valle del Belice) 152 km
Stage 6: May 10, Caltanissetta – Etna 163 km
Stage 7: May 11, Pizzo – Praia A Mare 159 km
Stage 8: May 12, Praia A Mare – Montevergine Di Mercogliano 208 km
Stage 9: May 13, Pesco Sannita – Gran Sasso d’Italia 224 km
Second rest day: May 14
Stage 10: May 15, Penne – Gualdo Tadino 239 km
Stage 11: May 16, Assisi – Osimo 156 km
Stage 12: May 17, Osimo – Imola 213 km
Stage 13: May 18, Ferrara – Nervesa Della Battaglia 180 km
Stage 14: May 19, San Vito Al Tagliamento – Monte Zoncolan 181 km
Stage 15: May 20, Tolmezzo – Sappada 176 km
Third rest day: May 21
Stage 16: May 22, Trento – Rovereto individual time trial 34.5 km
Stage 17: May 23, Franciacorta Stage (Riva del Garda – Iseo) 155 km
Stage 18: May 24, Abbiategrasso – Prato Nevoso 196 km
Stage 19: May 25, Venaria Reale – Bardonecchia 181 km
Stage 20: May 26, Susa – Cervinia 214 km
Stage 21: May 27, Rome – Rome, 118 km

Giro d’Italia Jerseys

The maglia rosa is the equivalent of the Tour de France yellow jersey. The rider with the lowest cumulative time across the stages to the current position in the race gets this.
The maglia ciclamino is the red(ish) jersey for the points classification leader at the Giro. You will easily be able to spot the King of the Mountains as it will be the one who looks like he is wearing an Italian soccer shirt (in terms of colour). The maglia azzurra goes to the King of the Mountain. The white jersey at the Giro is the same as at the Tour de France, it goes to the best young rider (25 or younger) and this is the maglia bianca.

Chris Froome

This is such a strange situation for Froome who is the 13/8 joint favourite at Ladbrokes. How will the other front-runners feel about him being there? What if Froome wins this and then gets stripped of his titles? It’s very confusing, but it has shown some strong character on his behalf to face the public in this race. He hasn’t really targeted the Giro d’Italia before, having a run at it in 2009 and finishing well down the pack before disqualification a year later. He was the man to beat in the other Grand Tours last year and given his success in the sport, he still is. The overall Giro setup may not particularly suit him and play to his strengths though because of the two-time trials (1st and 16th stages) and a lot of climbing with eight summit finishes to come (6, 8, 9, 11, 14, 18, 19 & 20). It is such a strange situation and how much of his mental approach can be really positive and in focus? He was found wanting a bit in the recent Tour of the Alps.

Tom Dumoulin

The Dutch rider won last year’s Giro but this, as he even he has said himself, is a totally different beast this year and he didn’t decide on chances until after he had seen the full course. He also admitted that Froome being in there made the challenge even more difficult. Twelve months ago Dumoulin got his first win on Stage 10 of the Giro and followed it up with a second on the 14th Stage. He came through to take the win by 31 minutes ahead of Nairo Quintana. So after his big breakthrough, last year can he follow it up? The last man to win it in back to back years was Miguel Indurain in 1992/93. He should be there near the top of the general classification and at 13/8 odds* (betting odds taken on April 30th, 2018 at 2:26 p.m.) to oppose a potentially distracted Froome, he will have plenty of support.

Miguel Angel Lopez

The aggressive riding style of Lopez is going to be a joy to watch and the Colombian is really starting to come good. He is a fantastic climber and at last year’s Vuelta a Espana he claimed a couple of stage victories which helped him into eighth in Spain. That was a massive step forward for him and he has slowly and steadily delivered and improved upon his potential which started with his 2016 triumph at the 2016 Tour de Suisse. He is seen as a pretty big threat in this one and the price of 5/1 at Ladbrokes* (betting odds taken on April 30th, 2018 at 2:26 p.m.) on him reflects that.

Thibaut Pinot

Like Lopez, Pinot is looking for his first Grand Tour success and he looks to be in pretty good shape to at least put in a good Giro overall. At the recent Tour of the Alps winning the event with Lopez in third place. The promising young Frenchman had a good Giro twelve month s ago with a fourth place finished and is such a consistent rider. His Tour of the Alps ride will have given him a tremendous amount of confidence.

Others

Fabio Aru was not on his game at all at the Tour of the Alps and on the basis of that, he doesn’t look primed and ready to launch an all-out assault here. The Vuelta win in 2015 remains his career best, and despite a third and a second before in the Giro, this is too deep of a field to back him in. Britain’s Simon Yates is in good form picking up the white jersey at last year’s Tour de France. He surely has more to come but at big 33/1 odds* (betting odds taken on April 30th, 2018 at 2:26 p.m.) the bookmakers believe that he’s not ready to mix it with the big boys yet in terms of winning a Grand Tour. There’s plenty of time ahead though in his career. Canada’s Michael Wood has found a bit of form, not only with a seventh at last season’s Vuelta out of nowhere but took second in the Liège-Bastogne-Liège in what was a very challenging field.

Predictions

A fantastic competitive field is out for this one and it’s Froome who is the one to beat despite everything going on. It would have been so easy and understandable for him to have missed this but he has put himself in the mix. In terms of riding, he may find this a little more difficult than his other successes, but Dumoulin winning back to back titles seems like a bit of a tough reach to get to. Young Lopez is such an exciting prospect and will attack on the climbs. Froome though wasn’t quite right at the recent Tour of the Alps, so maybe with distractions on top, this could be a year to look a little deeper in the field and the two who impress are Lopez and Pinot.


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