The half time/full time result is becoming more popular by the day. Some online experts, I use the word with reservations, are telling us that around 75% of half-time results will also be the final results. In other words the “result” at half-time will be repeated at full-time, in three quarters of games played.
This I cannot agree with. Altogether there are NINE possible half-time/full-time results. I have had a quick look at the PREMIERSHIP results for 2012/13 season.(Up to 31 games played each team). The three repeat results, i.e. Home/home, Away/away and Draw/draw, only match-up at just under the 60% mark.
Still the remaining results do offer some food for thought. For instance, how many teams winning at half-time when playing away are then beaten? In the season under review it happened on only 10 occasions. Similar stats prevail for a side winning at home at the break and then losing at full-time. The answer is only 5. Something to think about. The experts think that a side winning at half-time will be available at around 1.3 to back, to continue it’s good fortune. I’m not so sure. It will really depend on whether the winning side is the Home or Away team and which one was favourite at the start of the match. Also the price offered before the kick-off will also have some bearing on the Price for the second half. It should however still not turn victory into defeat. Definitely a lot of scope for some TRADING, here.
Delving a little deeper I’ve looked at another two previous seasons in the Premiership. With stats showing not a great difference from the 2012/13 season returns.
2012/13 season (up to 31 games played each),showed that there were 64 occasions when the AWAY side were leading at half-time. The full-time results for these matches were;- Home win 10, Away win 38 and Draw 16. This gives an overall “non-lose” for the half-time winning side of 84.4%. in other words an 84% winning situation if the, losing at half-time, Home team becomes a LAY bet. The prices would be short but I’m sure some filtering could further reduce the number of bets to a very manageable figure.
2011/12 This season had a few more instances of the Away side leading at half-time. 88 in total. The full-time results showed that once again ten home sides turned the result to a win in their favour. 22 were Draws and the remaining 56 stayed as they were. In all 78 matches were non-homes. Which gave 88.6% opportunities for Lay bets.
2010/11. Here once again, figures don’t show much variation. There were 88 matches in which the visiting team led at half-time. Only 10 of them were turned around to become Home wins.(11,4%). Matches finishing Away/Away were 56.(63.6%). Not quite as good as the previous season. Finally there were 22 matches which ended all square. (25%). In total there were 78 matches in which the Home side failed to win. (88.6%). Once again plenty of scope for LAY BETTORS.
Stats for the three seasons under review are:-
2010/11 Homes 10 (11.4%). Aways 56 (63.6%). Draws 22 (25.0%).
Opportunities for Laying The Home team at Half-time 88.6%.
2011/12 Homes 4 (4.3%). Aways 69 (74.2%). Draws 20 (21.5%).
Opportunities for Laying The Home team at Half-time 95.7%.
2012/13 Homes 10 (15.6%). Aways 38 (59.4%). Draws 16 (25.0%).
Opportunities for Laying The Home team at Half-time 84.4%.
The DRAW returns of 25% is about what can be expected in an average season. With a little research and filtering, it should be possible to remove some games from consideration and turn the stats to profitable use.
Laying the HOME side at half-time should be a profitable possibility. It will of course depend on the prices on offer. Especially if the Home team was the favourite at the outset, as the money men will expect a reversal. Which rarely happens.
