Horse Racing Analysis and Selections – Coral Scottish Grand National Declared Runners

The Young Master can teach his Ayr rivals a lesson

Horse Racing Betting

The mighty Red Rum is the only horse to have won the Aintree Grand National and Coral Scottish Grand National in the same season and is likely to remain so if the two races continue to be scheduled as close to each other as they are this year.

It’s just seven days since the Merseyside marathon and it would be asking to much of a chaser who had completed the full 4m4f course at Aintree to be competitive over another (officially) 4m1f at Ayr in such a short space of time.

The highlight of the jumps season north of the border is deserving of full attention in any case. It’s worth more than £122,000 to the winner and was first contested more than 150 years ago, though not in the format now recognised It has been held at Ayr racecourse since 1966 after the Bogside course, which staged the race after the Second World War, closed down. The race often produces a close finish, more so than it’s English equivalent, though this year’s renewal will do well to match the drama of Aintree this season or the blanket finish of the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse.

Scottish Grand National Trends

  • No horse younger than seven or older than 11 has won in the last 20 years with eight and nine-year-olds generally faring best
  • There are no discernible patterns regarding weight carried however those rated between 131 and 140 have an appreciably better strike rate than other with regard to both winners and placed horses
  • Reigning champion Vicente, also successful in 2016, is a trend-setter as he became the first horse last year to win the Scottish Grand National after failing to complete in his previous outing. Those who have been placed in their last race, or at least finished in the first half-dozen, seem to fare best
  • This is a not race for those chasers who have been around the block more than  a few times. All recent winners had raced no more than 25 times over fences

Vicente bids to become only the fourth horse in history, after Couvrefeu II, Southern Hero and Queen’s Taste, to win the Scottish Grand National three times. Paul Nicholls’ stayer was due to run in last week’s Grand National at Aintree but was withdrawn because of the soft going. Conditions are going to be less testing at Ayr, unless they get more rain than expected on the morning of the race, and he’s been lightly raced for his age. Though 6lb higher than last year, connections have probably had this has his long-term target but he’s been priced up accordingly at a general 9/1.

Joe Farrell (a general 33/1) could run well at those big odds if he settle and stays, but those are big ‘ifs’. Regal Flow (a best 25/1) has found a new lease of life at the age of 11. He has won three times this season, including the Midlands Grand National last time when Silsol was only fourth, but has gone up another 10lb.

Vintage Clouds and Beware The Bear were third and fourth in a valuable handicap at Cheltenham last month and both come into the reckoning at 11/1 with Betbright  and 20/1 with the sponsors respectively. Ballyoptic (11/1 with Betbright) is still a novice but beat Vintage Clouds in a Grade 2 at Wetherby in February and was then fourth in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham. He is much respected as his trainer has already won the race three times.

Doing Fine (a general 12/1) is a proven stayer and his yard is back in the groove after a spell in the doldrums so he will have plenty of supporters but Neil Mulholland also saddles THE YOUNG MASTER.

Sam Waley-Cohen’s mount appears to have been around for ever but it’s easy to forget he was only a seven-year-old when he won the bet365 Gold Cup over 3m5f at Sandown two years ago. He’s not scaled the same heights since, failing to complete on four occasions, but now races off a 16lb lower mark and there was were encouraging signs at Cheltenham last time following a wind operation. The forecast good going is definitely a big plus and his very experienced amateur rider is still able to claim 3lb which means he will be able to carry the minimum 10st. If he is anywhere near his best, the 16/1 available with many bookmakers is a huge price (odds correct at 2.30pm on April 20).

Coral Scottish Grand National Current Best Odds

Vicente 9/1, Ballyoptic and Vintage Clouds 11/1, Doing Fine and Fagan 12/1, Gold Present and The Young Master 16/1, Henri Parry Morgan , Label Des Obeaux, Beware The Bear, Glencairn View, Sizing Tennessee and Looking Well 20/1, Regal Flow, Cogry and Silsol 25/1, Get On The Yager, Joe Farrell, West Approach, Indy Five, Mysteree and Sizing Codelco 33/1, Benbens 40/1, Fact Of The Matter and Straidnahanna 50/1, Alzammaar, Boa Island, Pearl Swan, Work Du Bretau and Racing Europe 66/1