Going into last season’s Premier League, the front runners were Manchester City who were in at a price of 13/5 ahead of the big kick off to win the title. That was of course on the back of Pep Guardiola being in charge for the first time with the club, but things didn’t quite go to plan for the former Barcelona and Bayern Munich manager as City suffered a season of ups and downs and came in third. So the heavily-backed Manchester City’s failings was a really big win for the bookmakers and it was backed up by Manchester United, who were a top price of 18/5 in August to win the Premier League.
The Red Devils were expected to be stronger under Jose Mourinho, but in a season win which they drew far too many games and finished a lowly sixth, 24 points back of leaders Chelsea, it became apparent just a few weeks into the season that Mourinho’s men weren’t, after all, going to be Premier League title challengers. It was Chelsea who beat everyone to the punch and on that fateful day when they lost 3-0 at Arsenal on September 23rd, the Blues could have been backed at as big of a price as 25/1 to go and win the title.
But that was the defeat which sparked Chelsea into life as they changed things up in their following match against Hull and never looked back. The Blues went on to win their next thirteen Premier League games in a row, setting the platform for success in Antonio Conte’s first season in charge. So the Blues were the ones who defied the odds and going into next season. The Blues are 10/3 at Bet365 to retain their title, with Manchester City going as outright favourites again, trading at 15/8. Manchester United are 3/1.
The relegation scrap was an interesting one this year. You had Sunderland who 11/4 value at the start of the season to suffer relegation and compared to the price of 5/2 on Middlesbrough to go straight back down, the Black Cats were some big value back then. It was Hull, who had such limited resources who were the favourites to take the drop to the Championship and they so nearly overcame those odds with Marco Silva guiding them to precious home points, but they couldn’t get across the line. The narrow-priced 21/20 relegation shots Burnley and 23/10 rated Watford survived.
It is always hard for teams to come up and stay up and the newly promoted Huddersfield are 4/7 odds on favourites to go straight back down where they came from. Brighton looks slightly better equipped to stay afloat at a price of 6/5 with bet365 while Newcastle’s chances of survival are rated even higher at a price of 7/2. Burnley are in at 11/8 second favourites, with Watford at 6/4 and Swansea at 9/4.
The top four finish market for last season’s Premier League betting didn’t really go the way of the bookmakers at all. Manchester City and Chelsea obliged at expected odds-on prices while the bookmakers got Manchester United (2/5) and Arsenal (4/6) wrong. It was Spurs and Liverpool who filled the other two spots in the top four and Liverpool made it in at a price of 6/4 from the start of the season with Spurs at 13/8. So things are a little different heading into next season with Man City, Chelsea, Manchester United, Spurs and Liverpool all varying degrees of odds-on prices, with Arsenal back at even money.
The bookmakers got the Golden Boot wrong as well because they had priced up Sergio Aguero as the outright favourite from the start of last season at a price of 8/2. But he only netted twenty goals for the Citizens (joint-fourth) while Harry Kane blitzed his way to the finish line with seven goals in its last two games to clinch the title and he could have been backed at a price of 7/1 before the start of the season to prove that he wasn’t a one-season wonder. Kane actually scored more league goals than Middlesbrough did as a club last season (and he played seven games fewer).
Six managers left their managerial positions in the Premier League last season and this again, the bookmakers got wrong. Their stock was in Tony Pulis being the favourite to get the chop but West Brom stood by their man. He was 5/2 favourite to get the boot before the season had started and it was 8/1 shot Francesco Guidolin who was the first last season to lose his job, with Swansea ditching him.
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