How Man City have dominated the Premier League Winner market

Punters and probability all on City's side

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Manchester City

The Premier League title race is almost a third of the way done and dusted, and the season (and therefore the title race) has been dominated by one team and one team alone, Manchester City. Pep Guardiola’s charges have been the ones to catch, having set a phenomenal pace at the top of the pile and breaking records. No amount of investments over the summer, nor any potentially signings to come in the January transfer window for anyone else, appears as if will be enough to slowing up the Citizens on their title march.

City’s continuous odds drop

Manchester City opened the new season on August 12th when they took a 2-0 win at the newly promoted Brighton and Hove Albion. On that date, Bet365 had the Citizens priced up at 6/4 to win the Premier League title. Their odds since then have continued to tumble and tumble thanks to their stunning winning form and goal output and on September 9th when they went out and destroyed Liverpool 5-0 at the Etihad that was when things started to work their way towards even money.

Premier League Odds Development

The Citizens hit the even money mark with bet365 in mid September as they just continued to keep winning matches and right at the end of September when they put in an impressive performance to beat reigning champions, Chelsea, the Citizens dropped to odds-on for the first time, going as short as 8/11 in the title race. Towards the end of October that was down to 1/5 and that price was chopped even further as the close of November rolled around, with the Citizens at 1/10 for the title.

Main Challengers Fall

Naturally, with such a strong outright contender coming to the fore in the Premier League title betting, it means that there were significant changes going the other way in the odds development. Manchester United, who put together a great unbeaten streak of form from the start to the season were right there matching their great rivals in the outright market through to around the middle of September but with a slump from mid October to the start of November, the Red Devils went on the drift as Manchester City kept their winning momentum going.

The Red Devils started really going on the drift in mid September out to 5/2 and then 7/2 at significant points and after a small recovery, towards the end of October Bet365 had them out at 10/1 to win the league title from just 4/1 earlier that month. Jose Mourinho’s men had hit a high of 14/1 odds in the Premier League outright winner market towards the end of November. Reigning Premier League champions Chelsea who hadn’t been backed that well from the off to retain their title followed a similar odds progression path to that of Manchester United’s and they found themselves out at 20/1 in the middle of November.

Tottenham’s decline in odds in the Premier League outright winner market was a little less severe. They couldn’t get themselves under the 10/1 mark to win the title and that price had almost trebled in November as the Lilywhites were apparently struggling to balance Champions League success with domestic success and suffered a couple of high profile losses away from home to Arsenal and Manchester United to see their challenge wane.

Arsenal and Liverpool implode

The two clubs of the big Premier League six that have suffered the most rapid and severe drift in odds are Liverpool and Arsenal. Neither of them looked a particularly strong wager, nothing more than an outside bet at best through the entire season, but around the middle of September, Liverpool were actually seeing their odds trimmed down and getting closer to that of Chelsea in single figures. But then a steep and rapid decline beset them as their clinical finishing went and their defence continued to throw away cheap goasl and just a couple of months later were massive 50/1 shots at bet365 to win the league. Arsenal went from around 25/1 in mid September to 66/1 outside shots by the middle of November.

Premier League Probabilities

As most punters know, odds are linked with probability. The smaller the odds then the more probably an event is likely to occur. This is all calculated into e odds. You work this out yourself from either decimal or fractional odds.

Fractional Odds Probability:
8/13 = 61.9% probability. [{13/(8+13)}*100].

Decimal Odds Probability
2.20 = 45.45% [(1/2.2)*100].

So the probability of Manchester City winning the league title has been getting stronger and stronger all season with the cutting of their outright odds. The big momentum shift again was around mid September when the Citizens really started separating themselves from the rest of thepacl. That is when Man City’s probability sky rocketed and their man challengers, Manchester United’s pretty much tanked. Now it has left the rest of the top six with a diminished probability of winning the league, but the biggest losers in terms of whose probability has taken the biggest hit, is Manchester United, down from around 30% to under 10% within the space of a couple of months.

Premier League Probability Winner

Premier League Outright Winner Odds at bet365

Man City 1/10, Manchester United 14/1, Chelsea 22/1, Tottenham 50/1, Arsenal 50/1, Liverpool 66/1, bar 1500/1.