Epsom Derby History and Trends
Forget Kentucky, the Irish Derby and the Prix du Jockey Club, Epsom’s Investec Derby is the original and the best.
First run in 1780, a year after the first-ever running of the Oaks on Epsom Downs, the Derby pre-dates the Kentucky Derby by more than a century but would probably have been known as the ‘Bunbury’ had Lord Derby not won a coin toss with his great friend Sir Charles Bunbury. The latter would have his revenge, however, his Diomed won the first colts’ Classic at Epsom while Lord Derby had to wait until 1787 before he saw his colours carried to victory when the previously unraced Sir Peter Teazle scored under Sam Arnull.
By the middle of the 19th century, the Derby had established itself as the most important horse race of the year in Britain. Thousands flocked to Epsom Downs by any means possible and it even stopped Parliament business in the first Wednesday in June every year. The switch to a Saturday is a relatively new concept, designed to maximise betting revenue, but the race still draws thousands to Surrey and the roar as the runners hurtle around Tattenham Corner is comparable to most stirring sounds on a British racecourse.
There have been some brilliant winners in the last 50 years alone – Sea Bird, Nijinsky, Mill Reef, Shergar, Nashwan, Generous, Lammtarra, Galileo, High Chaparral, Sea The Stars and Camelot to name but a few. Victory guarantees massive stud fees and immortality.
- Confined the three-year-old colts, the season’s fourth Classic is very much a race for fancied runners. 11 of the last 12 winners have been among the top three in the betting on the day
- All of the last 12 winners had finished in the first four in their previous run
- Most of the last dozen winners had run at least three times and won at least twice with one of those victories coming at Group 3 level or higher
- All but two of the last 12 winners had run in the previous five weeks
- None of the last 12 winners had run before at Epsom
- Only two of the last 10 winners have been trained in England, seven have been trained in Ireland with four of the last six trained by Aidan O’Brien
| Year | Winner | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
| 2017 | Wings Of Eagles | Paddy Beggy | Aidan O’Brien | 40/1 |
| 2016 | Harzand | Pat Smullen | John Oxx | 13/2 |
| 2015 | Golden Horn | Frankie Dettori | John Gosden | 13/8 Fav |
| 2014 | Australia | Joseph O’Brien | Aidan O’Brien | 11/8 Fav |
| 2013 | Ruler Of The World | Ryan Moore | Aidan O’Brien | 7/1 |
| 2012 | Camelot | Joseph O’Brien | Aidan O’Brien | 8/13 Fav |
| 2011 | Pour Moi | Mickael Barzalona | Andre Fabre | 4/1 |
| 2010 | Workforce | Ryan Moore | M Stoute | 6/1 |
| 2009 | Sea The Stars | Mick Kinane | John Oxx | 11/4 |
| 2008 | New Approach | Johnny Murtagh | Jim Bolger | 5/1 |
| 2007 | Authorized | Frankie Dettori | Peter Chapple-Hyam | 5/4 Fav |
| 2006 | Sir Percy | Martin Dwyer | Marcus Tregoning | 6/1 |
| 2005 | Motivator | Johnny Murtagh | Michael Bell | 3/1 Fav |
| 2004 | North Light | Kieron Fallon | Sir Michael Stoute | 7/2 JF |
| 2003 | Kris Kin | Kieron Fallon | Sir Michael Stoute | 6/1 |
| 2002 | High Chaparral | Johnny Murtagh | Aidan O’Brien | 7/2 |
| 2001 | Galileo | Mick Kinane | Aidan O’Brien | 11/4 JF |
| 2000 | Sindaar | Johnny Murtagh | John Oxx | 7/1 |
The Betfred Dante at York has long been a good trial for the Investec Derby. John Gosden, trainer of Roaring Lion (6/1 with Betbright) plotted the same course with his 2015 winner Golden Horn and there are high hopes that the grey can get closer to SAXON WARRIOR than he did in the Qipco 2000 Guineas. However, Roaring Lion has twice finished behind 2000 Guineas third Masar this season and there seems no reason why the form should be reversed at Epsom given there is no certainty that the Gosden colt will stay 1m4f.
Masar looks overpriced at a general 14/1 by comparison but there really seems little point in opposing Saxon Warrior given Aidan O’Brien has pretty much covered every base in the Derby trials this season. His 2000 Guineas winner travelled like a dream at Newmarket considering some ‘experts’ thought that the mile trip would be too short. Quickening going into the dip at HQ, the Deep Impact colt never looked like being caught. He is bred to stay the distance at Epsom and is very well balanced considering his size so should handle the turns and gradients. BetBright are still offering 8/11 against him extending his unbeaten record and that should attract the big-hitters.
Young Rascal (a general 11/1) beat Dee Ex Bee in landing the Chester Vase and could have Al Muffrih as a pace-maker. Hazapour beat Delano Roosevelt and The Pentagon in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown and is widely available at 14/1 while French challenger Study Of Man won a Group 2 at Saint-Cloud on only his third start, though had only three rivals and can be backed at 33/1 with William Hill. The Gosden second string, Sevenna Star, is the same odds but he doesn’t look built for Epsom and would only be worth considering if the heavens opened.
Investec Derby 2018 Current Ante-Post Odds
Saxon Warrior 8/11, Roaring Lion 6/1, Young Rascal 11/1, Delano Roosevelt and Masar 14/1, Knight To Behold 16/1, The Pentagon 20/1, Rostropovich, Sevenna Star, Dee Ex Bee, Study Of Man and Kew Gardens 33/1, Nelson 40/1, Al Muffrih and Zabriskie 66/1 (Odds correct at 4.15pm May 24)
