Nine colts have gone on to win the Investec Derby after landing the Betfred Dante and it’s widely acknowledged as the best trial for the Epsom classic. But plenty have also triumphed at Epsom having been beaten at York and there is no guarantee that Golden Horn will confirm running with Jack Hobbs and ELM PARK this weekend.
Connections forked out £75,000 to supplement Golden Horn (7/4 with betway) at Epsom as he wasn’t originally entered. Yet breeder and owner Anthony Oppenheimer is still to be convinced that the horse’s stamina will stretch to 1m4f. Before York, Golden Horn was only entered in the French Derby, over 1m2f, and there are legitimate grounds for thinking that both the second and third could reverse the form at Epsom in what is sure to be a truly-run affair.
Jack Hobbs, like the favourite, is also trained by John Gosden. He was forced to race wide at York but was travelling as well as the winner approaching the final furlong and, unlike Golden Horn, the extra quarter-mile should suit. He’s still improving but is only a general 9/2 at present which is bordering on the edge of each-way value with all major layers going a quarter the odds on the first three for place purposes.
I really like Elm Park and have since I saw him gallop from pillar to post to land the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster in the autumn. He was beaten six lengths by Golden Horn in the Betfred Dante but trainer Andrew Balding and jockey Andrea Atzeni could hardly contain their delight afterwards, suggesting they had left plenty to work on. Elm Park had, indeed, looked the likely winner halfway up the straight until lack of condition told and he wasn’t given a hard time once headed.
The 15/2 with BetVictor looks outstanding value as the Phoenix Reach colt will stay every inch of the trip at Epsom and should be able to grab a prominent pitch from stall three – I’m not looking any further for the Investec Derby winner!
So what of the others? Ballydoyle has three entered and it would be no surprise if team tactics were employed. The trio including Hans Holbein (16/1 with Paddy Power), who beat subsequent Goodwood winner Storm Of Stars (a general 20/1) in the Chester Vase, Giovanni Canaletto (8/1 with Paddy Power) and Betfred.com Derby Trial winner Kilimanjaro (20/1 with Skybet, Stan James and Coral), will all want a fast pace.
Criquette Head-Maarek runs Longchamp second Epicuris (a general 20/1), who is a Group 1 winner. But, on a line through Medrano, he appears closely matched with Hans Holbein and Storm The Stars. More interesting is Ken Condon‘s Success Days. He’s won four of his last five starts and scored by 10 lengths last time. At the general 16/1, he could be worth a saver even though he’s yet to encounter ground as fast as this.
