This league is used as an in-between for the most inveterate punters. For those who know their stuff there is cash to be won. A casual look at the league results will often show a few results which appear to go against the expected outcomes. This is a quite common occurrence in this particular league.
As with most leagues, there are discrepancies in form which are hard to foresee. However, dig deep enough and the signs are all there. Away records for this league are probably the most intriguing. The eight most popular leagues for betting by British punters, rarely return an AWAY WINNERS percentage in excess of 29.9%. In fact there have only been 9 instances between the whole eight in the last sixteen years. The Irish premier League though has a record of exceeding 30% on six of the last nine seasons, for which records are available. Last season they returned 37.2% such wins. Match this alongside our own Premiership who returned a record 30.5%.
The other most popular leagues show returns as follows.
Spain 29.7% (a high for the last sixteen seasons)
Italy 27.5%
France 27.4%
Portugal 29.4%.
Germany 33.3%. (Highest. In total they had FOUR returns in excess of 30%)
Eredivision 35.0% (They too had FOUR seasons which bettered 30%)
Belgium 33.1% (This is a ONE OFF in sixteen seasons.)
This gives just NINE occasions in a total of 112 seasons (7 x 16).
Looking at the Irish figures against this background their returns are quite intriguing.
The HOME WINS situation, does as anyone will realise, suffer when the AWAY returns are so high. One thing that does stand out is the lack of consistency. From a low of 36.1% to a high of 45.5%. The number of games played per season may have some effect on the returns. One season saw only 165 matches played. Three other seasons consisted of 198 games. However the last three seasons has reverted back to 180 matches as in the first of the seasons covered. What the reasons lay behind the up and down figures is anyone’s guess. One thing you can rely on in this league is, form is usually unreliable.
Apart from the first season when there were 35.6% DRAWS the general occurrences of drawn games is about average. Well into the high 20%’s. There is one thing that will pay dividends. A good study of HEAD to HEAD results. This does appear to be the place to find the TURN-UPS. It doesn’t always seem to be when any one side is playing away. A fixture between two particular sides appears to be the sign for an upset, usually an AWAY win, whichever side is at home.
Another pointer worth noting is teams which find it hard to score at home. There are a few teams who for some reason, find it easier to score when playing away. Currently, Bohemians, Dundalk and Monaghan have abysmal goalscoring records at home, 0.67, 0.50 and 0.17 respectively. Yet boast an away scoring record of, 1.00, 0.86 and 1.29 respectively. Each one an improvement on their home form. On the other side of the coin we have Bray and Cork who respectively ship 2.67 and 1.43 goals at home but have better away figures of 1.29 and 1.00 respectively.
All these small pointers and lead to the unexpected results.
General goalscoring abilities in the league have over the nine seasons under review been very much an up and down affair. The UNDERS/OVERS 2.5 goals returns are very irregular. UNDERS ranging from 47.2%, last season, to 61.6% in 2008. The best OVERS of 52.8% occurred last season.
Average goals per game range between 2.16 (2007) and 2.79 last season. The current season’s form looks as upside down as ever when you read the STREAKS stats. Longest winning streaks at home are TWO, by two teams. Cork and Sligo. Best away streak is also two, by Derry.
In the NO WINS at HOME Monaghan boast a run of 6 games, whilst UCD have an identical AWAY record.
I’m sure anyone who bets regularly in this league will agree that the watchword MUST be CAUTION. This is not a league to bet maximum stakes on. The best way to play this league, is in my opinion, TRADING IN-PLAY. Otherwise be very very careful.
