Italy v Sweden Betting Preview – World Cup 2018 Qualifiers 13th November
Based on the evidence of Friday’s first leg in this World Cup 2018 qualifier there is a lot more left in this tie. Sweden holds a 1-0 advantage as the two square off at the San Siro on Monday after a deflected shot separated the two teams in the first leg. It is almost unthinkable to imagine a World Cup without the Azzurri. But the game was wide open and pretty even and Italy carved enough decent chances to suggest that they can get themselves back into this. There’s still a long way to go.
Italy v Sweden Betting Tips
What a set up for the second leg of this World Cup play off tie. Italy were always likely to end up in the play offs having unluckily been drawn with Spain in their qualification group. They got a tough draw for themselves in the play off and they found that out for certain on Friday night as they lost 1-0 in Stockholm. The game got off to a flier with chances for both sides, but Sweden were on top for most of the half. Italy then were much better after the break but were ultimately sunk when Sweden’s Jakob Johansson drilled home from 20 yards, the ball taking a massive a Daniele de Rossi deflection en route to the back of the net. Italy will have to be a little more positive and clinical for the second leg, and Italians are odds-on favourites at bet365 to win back at the San Siro and turn this around.
Italy recently beat Sweden 1-0 at the 2016 European Championship and they have a good head to head record against the Swedes. In their overall head to head against Sweden, Italy are up W11 D5 L6. At least that is a positive for the Azzurri and given their powerful home form, it’s unlikely that they are going to lose this second leg. That is because they are on a 44 match undefeated streak at home in competitive matches, a run stretching all the way back to 1999 and totalling W36 D8. That’s remarkable and you would expect them to set the pace and take most of the initiatve on Monday. A 1-0 correct score for Italy at bet365 will have some appeal but they are going to need more than that to get through. Of their ten matches against Sweden on home soil, Italy are W7 D2 L1. The Italians are now W3 D1 L2 in their last six games home and away in both competitive and friendly matches after their slip in Stockholm, the other loss in the sequence coming against Spain in the group stage qualifiers.
Will Sweden be able to grind this one out and get to their first World Cup since 2006? It is going to be a long night of them if they try and sit back for 90 minute on Monday. It will be tempting for them to just sit and play for the clean sheet that moves them to Russia 2018. They will know of course that an away goal probably secures them a place in the World Cup next summer and both teams to score at bet365 may have some appeal. The Swedes did really well in the first half of the first leg, and were clearly the better of the two sides and they were up for it. Sweden finished with a shot count advantage of 6-1 at the break before Italy worked their way back into the game. Sweden have quality up front in Marcus Berg, who netted eight times in qualifying and with Italy having to press in this one, the Swedes could set themselves up for the counterattack well.
But one concern for Sweden as well as having to face Italy’s formidable unbeaten home form is that their away form isn’t quite there. They have slipped to three defeats in their last four road games now, shipping to Bulgaria, Holland and France out on their travels in the World Cup group stage. That will make them just a little bit vulnerable. Sweden are not a goal-shy side as they showed in the group stage and over 2.5 goals at bet365 may well be worth a flutter because frankly that first leg were more wide open than anyone would have ever imagined it would have been. Both sides looked totally committed to trying to get through the tie in a positive fashion. Italy didn’t look great through qualifying at times and weren’t very convincing in that first leg overall, so there is an opportunity for the Swedes here. However, they Swedish will be wary of the intimidating atmosphere that awaits them at the San Siro.
Italy v Sweden Betting Odds
Italy 4/7, Draw 3/1 Sweden 9/2
Italy v Sweden Predictions
Italy to win: Can Italy do enough to get the required win on the board in ninety minutes? Yes. They weren’t great in that first leg and Sweden are clearly up for this. But the Swedes have had recent slips on the road and Italy have a strong home record. Italy can win this in a game over 2.5 goals.
