It will be all eyes on the famous Churchill Downs this weekend as the 144th edition of the Kentucky Derby will be run. This is for a 20-horse field with a massive prize purse of $2 million dollars riding it. It is open to three-year-old Thoroughbreds and it is a two-kilometre run (1 1?4 miles). The Kentucky Derby is a Grade 1 Stakes race and last year’s winner was Always Dreaming.
Qualification
You don’t simply pay and turn up at the Kentucky Derby. There is a series of races collated in the Road to the Kentucky Derby and the points amassed from those races count towards entry. The highest points-earners from those races will get to take one of the spots at Churchill Downs. There is also a European Road to the Kentucky Derby and a Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series as well. This replaced an earnings-based qualification system that was in place before. The races in the main Road to the Kentucky Derby start in the preceding September when the horses are two-year-olds and goes through to the following April when they had turned three. The top four finishers in each race gets points and there are more points on offer in the big preparatory races just before the Kentucky Derby like the Santa Anita Derby and the Arkansas Derby. That’s when you’ll see the big contenders step it up.
2018 Kentucky Derby Winner Odds*
Justify 4/1, Mendelssohn 9/2, Audible 5/1, Magnum Moon 8/1, Bolt D’oro 9/1, Good Magic 11/1, Vino Rosso 16/1, Hofburg 20/1, Noble Indy 20/1, Solomini 20/1, bar 25/1* (betting odds taken at 5:37 p.m. on April 29th, 2018)
Justify
The last time that a horse went out and won the Kentucky Derby after not having competed at all as a two-year-old, was Apollo back in 1882. So the weight of history is clearly not in favour of Justify going out and winning the race. But he has form behind him after stepping out for the first time as a three-year-old at the Maiden Special Weight in February which he won. He went on to take longer-distance victories in the Allowance Optional Claiming and then in the Santa Anita, one of the final major prep races for the Kentucky Derby. He took the Santa Anita by three lengths over good Derby long shot Bolt D’Oro. For those concerned that he didn’t break in as a two-year-old, light racing colts seem to be the trend and he looks an assured challenger to break that Apollo curse. He is the 4/1 favouirte at bet365 to do so* (betting odds taken at 5:37 p.m. on April 29th, 2018)
Mendelssohn
Trained by Aidan O’Brien, Mendelssohn has been carrying some strong form with a three-race winning streak going. He really stepped it up at the UEA Derby in March, destroying the field by 18th lengths so has to be a serious contenders in the first leg of this Triple Crown affair. Granted at the UAE Derby he wasn’t up against the kind of quality that he is going to be battling against in the Kentucky Derby, but his pace looks on point and so does his sprint finish. The European horse will have to overcome some history though because the highest ever finisher in a Kentucky Derby of a UAE Derby runner was Master of Hounds who took fifth place in 2011. Look at the strong challenger Thunder Snow last year (UAE Derby winner) at Churchill Downs for further evidence, who pulled up early. But Mendelssohn has been a USA winner, collecting the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar.
Audible
Audible hasn’t been as hyped as much as the other main contenders like Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon and of course, Justify, but is in the picture. He landed the G1 Florida Derby back at the end of March for trainer Todd Pletcher who has four runners in this season’s Derby. That was following a success back in February at Gulfstream as well in the Holy Bull Stakes so has had a good road to Churchill Downs. Can certainly get himself well in the picture here as part of that powerful contingent at the head of the market. It was a fantastic run in battling from the back of the pack to take the Florida Derby. A faster pace will suit.
Magnum Moon
Magnum Moon had a solid series in the Race to the Kentucky Derby. He’s been out three times in 2018 and has won them all. He produced a great win over Quip and Solimini at the Arkansas Derby in mid-April and that was after taking down Solomini at the Rebel Stakes in February. His first outing this season was over a mile at Tampa Bay when he won the Allowance Optional Claiming. He looked pretty solid for trainer Todd Pletcher. The question is can he get up enough to challenge in a tough, tough field? The year that the American Pharoah won the Kentucky Derby he won both major prep races that Magnum Moon has won this season as is so tempting at those 8/1 odds at bet365* (betting odds taken at 5:37 p.m. on April 29th, 2018).
Bolt D’Oro
Is a top outsider chance here. This is a superb colt who has been well exposed against the best in the business and has handled his own for the most part. He did have a rough one at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but took a win in San Felipe over McKinze and just back at the Santa Anita Derby he showed up superbly in taking second place behind Justify. At the 9/1 odds with bet365* (betting odds taken at 5:37 p.m. on April 29th, 2018) he will have each way appeal.
Good Magic
Like Bolt D’Oro, Good Magic is a decent longer odds prospect. The trouble for both of them really is that this is an immensely talented and stacked field. Good Magic won the Blue Grass Stakes and has put in a lot of work as the Kentucky Derby will be the sixth race of his career. He won the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile back in November and after a third at the Fountain of Youth Stakes in March got that very good win at the Bluegrass.
Predictions
Mendelssohn has looked so strong and so impressive that even though history as a UAE runner isn’t on his side for the Churchill Downs battle ahead, he has to get himself in the frame. There is just such a good field out here with the overall quality a huge step above what was out at Churchill Downs last year. There appears to be a chance of rain so it could end up being a slog. A lot of the hype in this season’s Kentucky Derby is about Justify being able to break that 100-year Apollo curse. But look instead for the intriguing Mendelssohn to finally show up at Churchill Downs to represent and break UAE Derby runners’ bad luck at Churchill Down. Maximum Moon is our big tip for a longer each way option.
