No matter how we try it’s impossible to ignore goals, whether they are for or against.
A lot of talk has always been about goals being scored late in the first half and more so in second half of the game.
Especially when a version of LAY the DRAW is being contemplated.
Just how often are LATE GOALS being scored. Not as often as we are led to believe.
The most proficient 5 minute spell is undoubtedly from the 86th minute onwards. This is only
to be expected as this period of time also includes ADDED TIME.
In the Premiership this season, so far, there have been 713 goals scored. Of these only 79 have come along in the last 5
minute plus spell. A mere 11%.
Man City with 11 goals are well ahead in the scoring stakes here. Their nearest rivals are Sunderland, with a miserable
7 goals.
Late goals in the first half are even more of a scarcity. Probably because the last 5 minute period of the first half usually
has less added time than it’s second half counterpart. Often a maximum of 2 minutes is the most you can expect, whereas the
86 to 90 minutes period is extended by, on average, at least 3 minutes.
The total of the 41 to 45 minute spell has so far this season amounted to 52 goals. Just 7.2%.
The most prolific team is Man Utd with seven goals followed by, believe it or not, Blackburn Rovers and Wigan Athletic
with 5.
One trading method that keeps cropping up is the Lay the Draw. It appears in various forms but one that takes my eye is
getting into the fray if the game is level on 70 minutes. This is where the late scores mentioned above comes into play
only it’s necessary to look into other stats from 70 minutes onward.
Most prolific 70 mins+ scorers are:-
Man City 18 goals Newcastle 11 - Norwich 12 - Sunderland 12 - Arsenal 17 - Chelsea 11 - Everton 12 - Stoke 10 - Man Utd 16 -
Whilst these figures may not engender too much enthusiasm at first glance, teams scoring 12 + goals are averaging a late
goal every second match. Plus, of course there is always the possibility that two of the listed teams could be playing
each other. Another thought to employ is, head to heads give a good pointer to scoring abilities of each pair of teams
when they have met previously.
Plus of course, the last six to eight games played will show whether teams are on a purple or barren spell.
We can, of course look at the other end of the scoring charts when endeavouring to find a match which may well end all
square at half time.
'Spurs 7 - Q.P.R. 5 - Bolton 7 - Wigan 7 - Swansea 6 - Liverpool 8 - Aston Villa 6 - Fulham 8 - Wolves 9 - W.B.A. 9 - Blackburn 7 -
It’s very obvious, that no matter what type of bet you indulge, there is no substitute for good old STUDYING the FORM BOOK.
I know a few of you will think that FORM STUDYING is for the bees. However it is just the start of the long road to
PROFIT MAKING.
During my years as a betting shop manager I would dissect the bets of the punters that won on a consistent basis.
I didn’t give a second glance to the guys who had the occasional big win. That included a chap who picked-up over
£11,000 on a £1.50 Lucky Fifteen. (£22.50 staked). I knew that what he had won would, given time, end up back in the till.
He simply didn’t study form.
Trying to find out what was worthwhile on the football betting front was much harder work than for the horses.
One thing that did stand out was the fact that the successful punters more often than not employed a number of bankers in
their bets. Usually they would have, say four or five bankers, (homes naturally) and a couple of two-way selections. Just
a FOUR LINE PERM.
1111 1111 1111 2x2x x2x2
Five selections @ 1.5 will return 7.59 pts. However if just one of the two-way selections results in a draw, 3.5 this will
rise to over 17 1/2 points. Two draws would return in excess of 60 pts. As a draw is the generally agreed alternative to
an outright result, this type of return can be expected fairly often.
The general selection method should be quite straight forward as far as the bankers are concerned. For the two-ways I’d
tend towards teams at around the EVENS mark.
At this time of year though, there are many potential BANANA SKINS awaiting the unwary.
From now on we can expect some unlikely results. The relegation battlers are getting touch desperate. If they are at home,
forget them. If they’re at away to a team in the bottom half of the table, consider them for one of the two way slots.
DON’T FORGET, the recent head to heads are a powerful ally to have at your disposal. The only worry I would have is if the
past results favoured one team too much. Perhaps something like 10 homes 0 aways 0 draws. This match I would give a wide
berth as this type of streak is due to end, sometime soon. If there was a head to head that included a win or a draw
against the general flow of results, within the last two or three seasons, then that would be more acceptable.
( 8 – 0 – 1 or 8 – 1 – 0) would be preferred to 10 – 0 – 0.
It is just as likely to find that the away side has run up a series of wins in previous encounters so 1 – 8 – 0 is not a
surprising set of stats.
Using stats carefully at this time of the year can be very rewarding just be aware that streaks you encounter have a habit
of ending at the worst possible moment, for the punter. Sod’s Law again.
EARLY SCORERS.
Scoring in the first half in PREMIERSHIP matches is usually low. To date ( 18/02/12) there have been 299 first half goals
in 250 games, out of an overall total of 713 goals. 41.93%.
It is quite interesting when the actual scores are split into individual totals.
0 – 0 happened in 74 matches.(29.6%). 1 – 1 surprisingly only in 32 matches.(12.8%0). 1 – 0 and 0 – 1 were surprisingly
close with 43 and 39 occurrences respectively.(17.2% and 15.6%). This leaves 62 matches with scores at the interval were
at least one side has netted twice. (24.8%).
Broken down like this it’s clear to see that 0 – 0 and 1 goal either way will be correct in three of every five games.
(62.4%).
In most circumstances, these three scores will, if “dutched” give an approximate profit of 40% plus. Not an earth
shattering figure when there is a 40% possibility of losing. It does however give a decent opportunity for trading once
the game gets underway.
REMEMBER, Bet sensibly.
