Lexus Melbourne Cup 2019 Odds and Preview – Horse Racing Betting November 5

Can Downdraft complete a quick Flemington double?

Horse Racing Betting

If you’re an Australian, the Lexus Melbourne Cup is equivalent to the Grand National, Derby and Royal Ascot all rolled into one. It’s billed as the race that stops a nation and it’s been an increasing magnet for runners from the UK, Ireland – who had the 1-2-3 in 2017 and last year – and France in recent years. The winner of this Group 1 handicap at Flemington will also become an instant hero or heroine and, long after the thousands of plastic glasses have been swept from the lawns in front of the grandstands, their name will always ben spoken with reverence. Of course, pocketing more than £2.3million in prize money is also a nice memento of the day.

Melbourne Cup History and Trends

While a Tuesday is an unusual day on which to run the biggest race in a country’s horse racing calendar, it’s a Melboune Cup tradition that dates back to 1875, and Australians have never been slaves to conformity.

The famous ‘Fashion on the Field’, which is now an integral part of the big day for many racegoers, is more of a modern phenomenon but that has been a regular feature for more than 50 years. Four horses have won the Melbourne Cup twice but only one – Makybe Diva in 2003, 2004 and 2005 – has won it three times. Only one woman jockey has ever been successful – Michelle Payne on board Prince Of Penzance four years ago.

Recent Melbourne Cup Winners

Year Winner Draw Age Weight Jockey Trainer
2018 Cross Counter 8/1 19 3 8-3 K McEvoy C Appleby
2017 Rekindling 16/1 22 3 8-0 C Brown J O’Brien
2016 Almandin 10/1 17 6 8-3 K McEvoy R Hickmott
2015 Prince Of Penzance 100/1 1 6 8-5 M Payne D Weir
2014 Protectionist 7/1 11 4 8-13 R Moore A Wohler
2013 Fiorente – 6/1F 5 5 8-9 D Oliver G Waterhouse
2012 Green Moon – 19/1 5 5 8-6 B Pebble R Hickmott
2011 Dunaden – 17/2 13 5 8-8 C Lemaire M Delzangles
2010 Americain – 12/1 12 5 8-8 G Mosse A De Royer-Dupre
2009 Shocking – 9/1 21 4 8-0 C Brown M Kavanagh
2008 Viewed – 40/1 9 5 8-5 B Shinn B Cummings
2007 Efficient – 16/1 10 4 8-9 M Rodd G Rogerson
2006 Delta Blues – 17/1 11 5 8-11 Y Iwata K Sumii
2005 Makybe Diva – 17/5f 14 7 9-2 G Boss L Freedman
2004 Makybe Diva – 13/5f 7 6 8-11 G Boss L Freedman
2003 Makybe Diva – 7/1 15 5 8-0 G Boss D Hall
2002 Media Puzzle – 11/2 3 5 8-4 D Oliver D Weld
2001 Ethereal – 9/1 13 4 8-2 S Seamer S Laxon
2000 Brew – 14/1 24 6 7-10 K McEvoy M Moroney
1999 Rogan Josh – 5/1 21 7 7-12 J Marshall B Cummings
  • No horse starting from stall 18 has ever won the race. The draw is an important factor to consider with an inside draw preferable due to the size of the field, though the outside berths are no longer ‘coffin’ boxes
  • No mare has won the race since Makyebe Diva and she was also the last to carry more than 9st to victory
  • Two six-year-olds have won the race in the last 10 years but four and five-year-olds have the best record in the modern era, though three-year-olds have won the last two
  • Five of the last eight winners have started at 10/1 or shorter
  • 13 0f the last 15 winners had raced within the previous four weeks
  • All of the last 15 winners had already won at Group or Grade 3 level or higher

Melbourne has had plenty of unseasonal rain and the going is likely to be soft for this year’s Lexus Melbourne Cup – that will suit some runners more than others. It could also partly negate the draw if earlier races have churned up the ground on the inside of the track.

Kerrin McEvoy is bidding to ride the winner for the third time in four year and the fourth time in total. The weighing room veteran is on board Finche for Chris Waller. The five-year-old runs in the Khalid Abdullah colours and was second in Turnbull Stakes at Flemington before swamped close home in the Caulfield Cup behind prolific Japanese raider Mer De Glace (8/1 with 888sport).

Vow And Declare, Mirage Dancer, Constantinople and Mustajeer also finished close up in that Melbourne Cup trial and punters have latched on to David Hayes and Tom Dabernig’s three-year-old, who didn’t get much of a run and is a now a best 13/2.

Cross Counter is a classy stayer but will have to give weight to all of his rivals if he’s record back-to-back victories and can be backed at 14/1. Last year’s runner-up Prince Of Arran is a general 16/1 despite having won the Geelong Cup last month.

Aidan O’Brien runs three but has never enjoyed much fortune in the Melbourne Cup. Ryan Moore rides Magic Wand but she’s on a long losing run and will have her stamina to prove. Fillies also don’t generally fare well in the race.

Joseph O’Brien had a winner at the Breeders’ Cup on Saturday and won this in 2017 with Rekindling. His entries this year include last year’s Irish derby winner Latrobe (a best 20/1) and Frankie Dettori’s mount Master Of Reality, who finished ahead of the aforementioned in this year’s Irish St Leger but was behind Southern France and Cross Counter. DOWNDRAFT looks overpriced at 20/1 with Betvictor.

John Allen steered him to an effortless victory in the Hotham stakes at Flemington on Saturday and he’s twice run well over 1m6f this year – the step up to 2m could bring about further improvement and he’s weighted to reverse Curragh form with Southern France.

Lexus Melbourne Cup Current Best Odds

Constantinople 13/2, Mer De Glace 7/1, Finche 10/1, Vow And Declare 12/1, Cross Counter, Surprise Baby, Il Paradiso and Raymond Tusk 14/1, Mustajeer, Prince Of Arran, Latrobe and Master Of Reality 16/1, Downdraft and Magic Wand 20/1, Southern France 25/1, Hunting Horn 28/1, Mirage Dancer 33/1, Youngstar, Twilight Payment and Steel Prince 50/1, Rostropovich 70/1, Neufbosc, Sound and The Chosen One 100/1
(Odds correct at 2.15pm November 3)


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