Loosing Home teams can make punters win

No recovery

Cyril's Betting Advice
Cyril's Betting Advice

A couple of strategies I mentioned a while back are proving themselves this season. The main purpose was to show how few HOME sides recovered from being behind at half-time and how this information could best be used. Up to now, (week 21 in the programme), only 5 HOME sides have managed to reverse the half-time result. Only ONE of them being better placed in the league table. Where the HOME side have been losing by 2 or more goals, NONE have managed to reverse the situation. A further 8 games have ended all square. Of these games there have been 5 games where the only second half goal was scored by the HOME team.

There have been 210 games so far and the overall number of away wins is higher than in the average season. Averaging 27 % (1030 matches) over the last 10 seasons. Up to week 10 there had been 32 AWAY wins from 100 games played. (32%). At present time there have been 69 AWAY wins. 32.9% of games. The best previous season being 2011/2012 when there were 116 AWAY wins all season. (30.5%).

So it would appear that the stats are proving themselves to be reliable. Yet another reliable bit of info is that there have only been 7 matches in which there have not been further goals scored in the second half. 6 of those games ending 0 – 1. We are now in a position the find a use for these stats. Altogether there have been 48 half-time away wins so far this season. Ending as follows:- 5 Homes, 8 Draws and 35 Aways.

There are some straight forward possibilities for betting action.
1. LAY the home side at half-time. The odds will be very tight but with a little experience it should be possible to root out any possible “spoiler”.
2. Here again the odds may be a little prohibitive but sort the wheat from the chaff and it should be possible to make some cash. The market here is the old favourite LAY THE DRAW. To make any sort of profit the stake would have to be increased somewhat. The beauty of the strategy is that if there is an equaliser it can be turned into an ARB and you back the DRAW.
3. Probably the most lucrative of the three options. Here again a little study of form, both recent and previous head to head, is worthwhile. The bet is simple. “Dutch” the two teams to be “Next Goal Scorer“. Under normal circumstances there will be at least a 20% PROFIT from each game covered. There is always the possibility of a “TURN-UP”, however, here again a little application to past and present form should be more than helpful. The alternative is to LAY…..No Next Goal. however the difference will only be a matter of pennies, either way.

I’m sure any of the three options given can be improved upon. After all, that’s what attempting to find new strategies is all about.

The obvious question I ask myself is, “do other leagues have similar outcomes when the half-time leader is the away side?” Time to find out.