Classic Chase History and Trends
This Grade 3 staying chase began life at the Warwick National in 1974 with the current conditions adopted in 2004. It was frequently abandoned due to icy conditions in the Seventies and Eighties but enjoyed an uninterrupted run between 1988 and 2008, though was lost to the weather again in 2009 and 2010. However, conditions seems set fair for this weekend with good jumping going forecast.
Colonel Christy won the race as a six-year-old in 1981 while Midnight Madness, Fiddlers Pike and Willsford have won it as 12-year-olds.
Recent Classic Chase Winners
2018 – Milansbar 12/1
2017 – One For Arthur 14/1
2016 – Russe Blanc 20/1
2015 – Hawkes Point 15/2
2014 – Shotgun Paddy 9/1
2013 – Rigadin De Beauchene 5/1
2012 – Hey Big Spender 14/1
2011 – West End Rocker 10/1
2010 – Abandoned
2009 – Abandoned
2008 – D’Argent 18/1
2007 – Ladalko 9/2 fav
2006 – Eurotrek 6/1
2005 – Baron Windrush 11/1
2004 – Southern Star 15/2
- The one outstanding trend in this 3m5f contest is that no recent winner has been off the track for more than six weeks previously. The top three in the weights – Un Temps Pour Tout, Sizing Codelco and Step Back – look at a considerable disadvantage therefore.
- Winning form beyond 3m is a plus.
- Only three of the last 13 winners carried more than 11st2lb.
- Only one favourite has won in the last 15 years.
Milansbar (11/1 with William Hill) bids to be the first horse to win the Classic Chase for the second year running. Neil King’s veteran has only had one run so far this season so this has probably been the long-term plan. But he is 6lb higher than 12 months ago but every one of his six career victories has come on ground with some give and he really needs the mud. The mild and dry weather has conspired against him this year and others are preferred.
Ibis De Rheu has come in for plenty of ante-post support even though he is technically still a novice. Though he’s been running over fences for more than two years, he didn’t win his first chase until November. There is also the worry that 3m has proved his limit so far in terms of distance so the general 7/1 offers little value.
A couple of these arrives off recent victories. Cogry, runner-up last year, showed his customary resilience to win a Grade 3 at Cheltenham but is now on a career-high mark, though usually runs well at Warwick and is a best 8/1 with William Hill. Carole’s Destrier landed the Mandarin at Newbury two weeks ago and still nicely treated on his best form but he is very difficult to predict nowadays and this an ultra-competitive contest so I wouldn’t be rushing to back Neil Mulholland’s 11-year-old at the best 10/1.
Impulsive Star, another Mulholland entry, may still be a maiden over fences but he finished fourth in the 4m National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last year and will have needed his reappearance at Plumpton. He could be interesting for each-way purposes at a best 8/1 and last year’s fourth, Crosspark (20/1 with William Hill), also warrants a mention. Cogry’s stablemate Calett Mad (a general 7/1) just lost out over 4m at Kelso last time so will stay every inch of the trip at Warwick but he hasn’t won over fences in more than two years.
DUEL AT DAWN was second in the novice chase on the same card at Warwick 12 months. Earlier novice form puts him on a par with Sizing Tennessee, who won the Grade 3 Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury last month off a mark of 148. Alex Hales’ nine-year-old, who hasn’t had much racing, is only rated 137 at present and wasn’t given a hard time in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock on his reappearance, his first run since March. He was still only half-a-length behind last Saturday’s easy Sandown winner Houblon Des Obeaux and the fourth, Sharp Response, won Thursday’s North Yorkshire National in a canter so that form is working out really well. He’s only a best 7/1 but, from a handicapping perspective, is the one to beat.
Classic Handicap Chase Current Best Odds
Ibis Du Rheu, Calett Mad, Duel At Dawn and Step Back 7/1, Cogry and Impulsive Star 8/1, Carole’s Destrier 10/1, Milansbar and Sizing Codelco 14/1, Un Temps Pour Tout 18/1, Crosspark 20/1, Ultragold 25/1, Chase The Spud 40/1
(Odds correct at 6.00pm January 11)
