Lions coach Warren Gatland has put a couple of surprises into the starting lineup for his side as the tourists go into the First Test against the All Black on Saturday, June 24th. Ireland flanker Peter O’Mahony is captaining the side with Tour captain Sam Warburton on the bench from the start. In the back three, Gatland has suprisingly taken Liam Williams over Leigh Halfpenny at fullback and England’s Elliot Daly comes into the wing after a good performance against the Chiefs. Anthony Watson makes up the back three.
Maro Itoje, who many thought would start in the second row on the back of his great form hasn’t been handed a start, with Gatland having gone for the experience of Alun Wyn Jones instead. Whatever side Gatland was going to put out, this is a massive task ahead for the tourists who go into the match as heavy 7/2 underdogs at Boylesports. The Lions haven’t beaten New Zealand since 1994 so this is a huge test for them at Eden Park in Auckland on the weekend.
It hasn’t been the smoothest of Tours from the Lions, with defeats along the way and they struggled to get out of the blocks in their early matches. But their form has been improving and they have outscored their opponents 9 tries to three in their last 4 warm up matches, including wins over the Crusaders and the Maori All Blacks. If you look back at their Tour so far, the defeats against the Blues and the Highlanders were both closer affairs and the tourists could have won them.
The Lions can take some heart from Ireland’s win over the All Blacks in Chicago last year when their game plan was simple. It was just a plan of dominating the set pieces(in particular the line-out) and then they can put themselves in with a chance in this one. New Zealand coach Steve Hansen has criticised the style of the Lions but maybe that is a compliment in a way because he is seeing things that could rattle his side. The Lions are +10 in the handicap market at Boylesports for this opening match up.
New Zealand are unbeaten at Eden Park for 23 years as well and they have thrown in captain Kieran Read and Ryan Cotty into the lineup who have just come back from injury. Fly-half Beauden Barrett is going to be a key figure in how the All Blacks tick over. If the Lions can target him and shut him down in the match then they will also increase their chances of success in the match. But then again, everything is easier said than done when it comes to the All Blacks. They are the best side in the world and with good reason.
The first half will probably be tight, because the game plan of the Lions has been to grind things out in the first half of matches, ensuring that their defence remains on point against fresh legs, which makes sense. The one thing they can’t do is let New Zealand get the first try on the board because that will spell huge problems for them. The Lions aren’t exactly built to go out and play catch-up rugby and when you look down the line up with the like Sonny Bill Williams and Israel Dagg in there, who is 13/2 outright favourite at Boylesports in the First Tryscorer market
New Zealand v Lions Betting Odds
New Zealand 1/4, Lions 7/2, Draw 28/1
Prediction: The Lions have stuck in there through decent first halves of matches on the tour so far and they can hang close enough to the All Blacks at the break to warrant backing at 6/5 in a Lions +3.5 first half handicap. Overall, taking on New Zealand at Eden Park is something that nations have tried time and time again to handle and time and time again have failed. It’s hard to see the Lions having enough to play catch up if they fall behind and under 41.5 Points Total in the game at 5/4 has some value.
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