Newcastle 15:55 Racing Odds and Predictions June 4 – Malotru still 9/4 with Unibet

Malotru has nothing to prove in Newcastle feature

Horse Racing Betting

Newcastle, the pathfinder in UK racing’s comeback, will cede the spotlight to Newmarket in the next few days. But the card today at HQ is definitely one for future reference than the here and now and Gosforth Park has a couple of more tricks up its sleeve before taking a break, starting with the Betway Pavilion Stakes this Thursday.

Horse Racing Betting at Betway

Betway continue to earn brownie points for helping ease the way back to a recognisable racing programme and sponsor this Grade 3 sprint, run over 6f on the Tapeta course.
The race is normally run at Ascot but it’s a case at needs must at present for the British Horseracing Authority, who are trying to fold nine months worth of black-type racing into the seven months available.

Pavilion Stakes Recent Winners

Year Winner Jockey Trainer Weight Odds OR
2008 Sir Gerry Jamie Spencer James Fanshawe 9-4 4/1 110
2009 Total Gallery Liam Keniry J S Moore 9-0 11/2 103
2010 Society Rock Pat Cosgrave James Fanshawe 8-11 9/2 93
2011 Perfect Tribute Luke Morris Clive Cox 8-6 14/1 98
2012 Gusto Richard Hughes Richard Hannon Snr 9-0 6/4 110
2013 Ninjago Richard Hughes Richard Hannon Snr 8-11 7/1 95
2014 Always Win Ryan While Bill Turner 9-0 16/1 95
2015 Limato James Doyle Henry Candy 9-1 6/4 115
2016 Gifted Master Pat Smullen Hugo Palmer 9-4 3/1 111
2017 Blue Point William Buick Charlie Appleby 9-1 13/8 116
2018 Invincible Army Ryan Moore James Tate 9-1 11/8 110
2019 Calyx Frankie Dettori John Gosden 9-1 1/3 115

Pavilion Stakes Trends

Trends should probably be taken with a pinch of salt as they refer to Ascot and not Newcastle:

  • 92 per cent of the last 12 winners had run at least four times previously
  • 100 per cent of the last 12 winners had run at least twice over 6f
  • 75 per cent of the last 12 winners were rated 98 or higher

Pavilion Stakes Current Best Odds

Malotru 9/4
A’Ali 3/1
Ventura Rebel 11/2
Troubador 9/1
Dream Shot 10/1
Aberama Gold 12/1
Ventura Lightning 16/1
Keep Busy, Dubai Station and Glasvegas 25/1
Show Me Show Me 33/1
Fleeting Prince 40/1
Stormy Girl 100/1
(Odds correct at 12:30 BST June 3, 2020)

Pavilion Stakes Predictions

This looks a decent renewal considering it is being run on artificial surface.
Dream Shot (a best 10/1) and Al Aali (3/1 with Unibet) were sent to Santa Anita in November to contest the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.
The latter was the better fancied but the former finished a length ahead with both having been forced wide into the straight. Silvestre De Sousa’s mount carries a penalty having won the Grade 2 Prix Robert Papin and the Flying Childers last season and he was a little disappointing on his only previous try over 6f.
There is always a risk backing three-year-olds with little evidence that they’ve developed from their two-year-old campaign but MALOTRU’s smooth victory in a Listed race over 7f at Lingfield in February was confirmation that he’s trained on.
The 6f at Newcastle is much stiffer than on other all-weather tracks so Marco Botti’s colt is unlikely to be fazed by a small drop in distance. He clearly likes the Polytrack surface so should handle Tapeta and it’s easy to see why he’s the current 9/4 favourite with Unibet.
Troubador (a general 9/1) is an interesting runner.
Michael Dods’ stable is taking a while to emerge from lock-down but his grey was very progressive on Turf last year, winning four times. He was trying to give a useful winner 9lb in his final start in the Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy in October and is better off at the weights with fourth Aberama Gold (14/1 with Paddy Power).
Ventura Lightning (16/1 with Paddy Power) was beaten by Aberama Gold in the Listed Rockingham Stakes at York last year but may be the best of the Richard Fahey trio ahead of the less-exposed Ventura Rebel (a best 11/2).
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