The penultimate race of the day at Newcastle on Friday is the 18:45 which is a Fillies’ Handicap. This Class 5 trip over the All-Weather track is at just over the 7f distances. There are eight entered for the race with Dancing Rave looking like the one to beat as she was still being trimmed in price late on Thursday evening.
Newcastle 18:45 Race Odds*
Dancing Rave 2/1
Oriental Lilly 4/1
Waitaki 5/1
Forever Mine 6/1
Strawberryandcream 7/1
Tarnhelm 9/1
Siena Mia 10/1
Betty Grable 11/1
* (betting odds taken from Bet365 on January 30th, 2020 at 23:08)
Horse Racing Betting at Bet365
Table of Contents
Dancing Rave all the rage
Having secured a win in her last race, it is Dancing Rave who is a strong favourite to bring home the bacon at Newcastle on Friday. Her last trip was earlier this month when took a victory over Bint Dandy by one and a quarter lengths at Lingfield. The price that she has paid for the win is a 5lb hike, but that looks like something that the four-year-old can handle. She’s a four-time winner between 5 and 7 furlongs. She lines up in the 18:45 at Newcastle as the 2/1 favourite* (betting odds taken from Bet365 on January 30th, 2020 at 23:08)
Can the experienced Oriental Lilly challenge?
Oriental Lilly has won six times between 5f and 7f on the All-Weather, so that’s well worth noting. Last time out the mare only came home a fourth of seven from a 6/1 mark. That was after an absence though, so it should have sharpened her up better for this one. She could easily come back and challenge strongly in this one. That last race was at Newcastle at 6f so has that bit of recent track experience too and is well priced at 4/1.
The Distance Winners
The two front runners have both won at distance, as have Strawberryandcream and Waitaki. The latter took a decent enough third-place finish at Southwell at the 7f distance in early January. That was in a field of eleven so she held herself pretty well.
Siena Mia’s last run was at course and distances in December. Unfortunately, the trip didn’t go as well as she was 8th of 14 at 14/1 odds. From six previous starts, she’s now only managed to get a place finish once.
The Rest of the Pack
Betty Grable wasn’t in bad shape before a break. But on her return, she was last of 9 over a 1m trip at Newcastle earlier in January this year. That knocked her back quite a bit but will be down in the weights because of it.
Tarnheim has finished ninth and eighth in her last two runs. The most recent was in a field of 11 at course and distance in January. Forever Mine is less experienced with just three starts under her belt and this is her handicap debut. There’s not been a place finish yet and will be 5lb out of the handicap so may have each-way appeal here. She was an 80/1 shot in her last run, which was at Newcastle and was 5th of 7.
Predictions & Tips
Dancing Rave went well at Lingfield to score the win and she was in cheekpieces for the first time. That stays the same and she looks as if she has the kick in her to handle the 5lb bump that she’s going with.
Waitaki and Oriental Lily do both have decent enough claims for the fixture. The latter is familiar with the course but is taking a step up in trip. Neither may be quite progressive enough to stop Dancing Rave taking this. There should be considerations on Forever Mine on her debut because of weights.
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