Nobel Peace Prize Betting 2018 Winner Odds & Predictions

Korean leaders to share award?

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This year’s edition of the Nobel Peace Prize is going to be pretty interesting without question. That is because up as one of the front-runners is the massively controversial US President Donald Trump. Despite his entire presidency being under investigation amidst accusations of corruption, it would be a staggering achievement if he were to land this.

Trump is the 5/2 second favourite at Ladbrokes* (betting odds taken from September 28th, 7:56 pm) to win it, but of course, his potential nomination hasn’t been without some weirdness.

Table of Contents

2018 Nobel Peace Prize Winner Odds*

Kim Jong-un + Moon Jae-in 4/6
Donald Trump 5/2
UNHCR 12/1
Carlos Puigdemont 12/1
Raif Badawi 16/1
Novaya Gazeta 16/1
Angela Merkel 16/1
Pope Francis 16/1
ACLU 20/1
Edward Snowden 25/1
Bar 100/1* (betting odds taken from Ladbrokes on September 28th, 7:56 pm)

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The History

The Nobel Peace Prize has gone to some of the most famous names of world history. Think Mother Teresa, Nelson Mandela, Martin Luther King Jr and Barack Obama. Twelve months ago the Award was handed over to ICAN (International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons).

The point of the award is to acknowledge acts of humanity and it is awarded “to the person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.”

The price is handed out by a committee of five people who are in turn elected by the Parliament of Norway. The first ever Award was handed out in 1901 to Frederic Passy and Henry Dunant. The winner gets a medal, a diploma and monetary prize. The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded in Oslo in front of the King of Norway.

Kim Jong-un + Moon Jae-in

This year’s leading contender is a shared nomination of Kim Jong-un + Moon Jae-in, the respective North and South Korea leaders. There has been pretty big progress between the two nations this year with them coming together to bring some harmony between the liberal south and closed conservatism of the north.

The main area of progress has been over the denuclearisation of North Korea. The two leaders had talks earlier this year and came to an agreement on a “way to achieve denuclearisation” on the Korean peninsula. This would be huge with North Korea, known as the “hermit country” because of how it is has closed itself off from the world, always having been seen as a bit of a rogue nation and defiance of calls to abandon its nuclear ambitions.

So the inter-Korean relations have been huge. Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader has apparently looked keen to shut down facilities, but this isn’t without terms of course, because he wants the USA to reciprocate in some manner. But Mr Kim did announce transparency would be allowed in the shutting down of a main missile testing and launch facilities.

So at least being in the early days of potential peace on the Korean peninsula, there is naturally going to be a heavy leaning towards the Nobel Peace Prize behind shared between the Korean leaders which is an option at 4/6 odds* (betting odds taken from September 28th, 7:56 pm). However, critics of the award going to Mr Kim would cite that in order to further the progress of better relations, human rights problems in North Korea are being overlooked.

Donald Trump

This is also where US President Donald Trump comes in. He will, of course, claim a lot of progress in North Korea shutting down nuclear facilities, is down to him and his summit with Kim Jong-un during 2018. Just twelve months ago it appeared that the US and North Korea were looking to square off in a nuclear war, but things have come 180 with relations between the two countries in pretty “extraordinary” state according to Trump.

This is also where things have been a little weird this year. Apparently, there were two nominations for Trump for the Nobel Prize which were received before the deadline. However, both nominations were reported to be fakes and were withdrawn. The other factor in the Trump Nobel Prize situation is that the nominations had to be received before January 31st.

The issue with that is that it was some way before Trump announced plans for a summit with Kim Jong-un. The summit is basically the case on which a Trump Nobel Prize is built. So the overall signs don’t really point to Trump getting this.

Nominations

There are usually over 200 nominations each year for a Nobel Peace Prize. No-one but the committee knows who has been nominated and lists are not revealed afterwards. This is important for Nobel Peace Prize betting because it is a totally blind field from which you are choosing from.

Other potential candidates

This is the UN Refugee Agency which has won the Nobel Prize twice before for its groundbreaking work across the world. They continue to work to help people who have had to flee or who have lost their homes. Refugees, asylum-seekers and stateless people are all people of concerns to the UNHCR.

The Novaya Gazeta is expected to be in the running once again as a key nominee just as it was twelve months ago. This is a Russian newspaper which actually has been one of the frontrunners in Liberalism in the country and which hasn’t been opposed to challenging the establishment, sometimes at the risk of death among their journalists. The newspaper has had reported deaths of journalists over their investigations inside Russia.

Raif Badawi is a Saudi writer who created the website Free Saudi Liberals. He suffered an arras a few years ago, with a charge of “insulting Islam through electronic channels”. With several charges thrown at him, he was charged with lashes and a prison sentence. There have been many movements to get him freed, including Nobel laureates singing a letter to get Saudi academics to convey his flogging. Amnesty International has raised petitions. His family lives as refugees in Canada.

Carlos Puidgement, the former President of the Government of Catalonia was in the news a lot last year as he tried to push for independence for the region from Spain. The Spanish government removed him after the unilaterally Catalan declaration of independence. Taking such a bold defiance stand for his people will have given him a huge status.

Nobel Prize 2018 Predictions

The Nobel Peace Prize predictions can be a tricky thing to pull off and it’s not all that often that you will see the front-runner actually get the prize. Because all of the nominations are secret and no-one really knows how is up for the award, it is difficult to pinpoint where it is going.

For example, twelve months ago it was the ACLU which was the front-runner among others like Pope Francis, Angela Merkel and The White Helmets. The winner ICAN was barely mentioned in the build-up to the award. Because peace and progress are still a long way off on the Korean Peninsula.

They may get overlooked and where this is going in 2018 is a little hard to gauge. It may not be a huge surprise therefore for the UNHCR to get an unprecedented third award. The 12/1 odds on the organisation doing so* (betting odds taken from September 28th, 7:56 pm) is as good as anything else in the unpredictable, blind field.