Nottingham Forest v Swansea Championship Play Off Semi Final First Leg
Thursday, May 12th – 7.45 pm Kick Off
Third placed Swansea head to sixth place Nottingham Forest in the first of the two Championship play off semi finals. Despite a strong run in of three straight wins to close out the regular season, it was not enough to push them into an automatic qualification place. Those spots went to QPR and Norwich, and now one final berth in next season’s Premier League awaits one of four teams. During the regular season, both sides scored home victories over the other and there really isn’t too much to separate the teams. Swansea finish four points back of fourth placed Norwich, but have consistently been one of the stronger teams in the Championship this year. Most of the success of Swansea has been built upon their defence, and it is that aspect of their game which could get them back into the top flight of English football, a place they have not been for 28 years. Nottingham Forest v Swansea betting odds are a close call, because although the Welsh unit will be slight favourites, and six third placed teams have come through the play offs to make it to the Premier League before, and they face a Forest side which are on fire at the moment. But you can’t look at Swansea and ignore the defensive duties which they have so admirably performed this year. They finished the regular season with the second best defensive record in the Championship, and have managed to stop the opposition from scoring in three of their last four matches. Taking that a little bit further, Swansea have conceded just two goals in their last seven matches, and over the season, they average conceding a goal every fifty minutes. At the other end, they haven’t been one of the prolific goal scoring teams in the promotion hunt, but did finish level on 69 with Forest.
Something to take into consideration for your Nottingham Forest v Swansea betting, is the fact that the Welsh side haven’t been great on the road this year. They have suffered eleven defeats, with just a 39% win percentage on their travels. Swansea have won just one in their last six away matches, losing four and drawing one, so not a sharp record to take to Forest. As for Nottingham Forest, Billy Davies will be looking to take the club a step or two further than last year, when they lost in the Championship play off semi finals to Blackpool. Davies could be a key factor with good experience in these situations. He has certainly ramped up Forest, as they romped home, closing the season out with four straight victories. Apart from a bad patch of a month between March and April, where they lost five of six games, they have finished with great aplomb, banging in fourteen goals in those last four matches. With McGugan and Earnshaw weighing in with 21 goals between them, Nottingham Forest average 1.86 goals per game at home this season. On the defensive end, Nottingham Forest are nowhere near as solid as Swansea are. Forest have conceded a worrying five goals in their last four games, so they have to go out and attack at home to try and gain some kind of advantage for the away leg. So this could come down to an in form Forest attack taking on a very solid Swansea back line. Which will gain the upper hand? Well, Forest have a poor record in the Championship play offs, having won only one of their last six play off matches. The head to head doesn’t reveal much to sway Nottingham Forest v Swansea betting, with 24 wins for Forest and 22 for Swansea, pretty much levelling things out.
Betting Tip: Good value in a draw here as they could cancel each other out.
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