The next golf major of the season is already here, hot on the back of The Open Championship. This year’s PGA Championship is being hosted at Bellerive Country Club in Missouri. This will be the second time that the course has hosted the PGA Championship. This will be the last time that the PGA Championship will be hosted this late in the year as from 2019 it will be moving up to May.
This year’s tournament is a par 70 at 7,329 yards with a field of 156 players and the winner will walk away with almost a $2 million prize. The reigning champion is Justin Thomas who is right up near the head of the market at 14/1 odds with bet365* (betting odds taken on July 6th, 2018 at 7:42 pm) and he had a pretty good warm-up ahead of his title defence by winning the Bridgestone.
Here are our PGA Championship 2018 predictions.
2018 PGA Championship Winner Odds*
Dustin Johnson 8/1
Rory McIlroy 12/1
Justin Thomas 14/1
Brooks Koepka 20/1
Jason Day 20/1
Justin Rose 22/1
Rickie Fowler 22/1
Jordan Spieth 22/1
Jon Rahm 25/1
Tiger Woods 25/1
Tommy Fleetwood 28/1
Francesco Molinari 30/1
Patrick Reed 40/1
Tony Finau 40/1
Patrick Cantlay 40/1
Henrik Stenson 45/1
Marc Leishman 55/1
Bar 60/1
* (betting odds taken on July 6th, 2018 at 7:42 pm)
Dustin Johnson
He took a T13 at the 2017 PGA Championship and heads up the market for this year’s renewal. Johnson has a pretty strong record at the tournament as well with four top ten finishes from eight previous attempts. His best ever finish was a T5 at the 2010 edition but he is generally just so strong and consistent in the major events that he is going to draw a lot of appeal, despite the short price. Johnson goes into Bellerive on the back of a T3 at the WGC Bridgestone and that was on the back of the win at the Canadian Open so he is bang in form at the moment.
Rory McIlroy
McIlroy is another one who is ticking over in some pretty solid form and so nearly got himself to The Open title recently. He ended up second there with four solid days and with another strong performance behind him at the WGC Bridgestone then he should be pretty dialled in. This is a tournament which McIlroy has won twice before, in 2012 and 2014 and he has three other top ten finish at the even besides those victories. He has only missed the cut once in nine previous PGA Championship quests. McIlroy is a 6/4 price at bet365* (betting odds taken on July 6th, 2018 at 7:42 pm) to land a top ten finish but opposers will question his short game at the moment.
Justin Thomas
The reigning PGA Championship holder couldn’t have had a better warm up. He stormed his way to the Bridgestone title over the weekend with a four-stroke victory. Last year’s success at the PGA Championship was his first and only Major title so far and after a T17 at the Masters and a T25 at the US Open this year, he will go to the tournament after another missed cut at The Open. But his response at Firestone was tremendous and as he will be in a group with Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy then there’s every expectancy that he will turn up with his game-head on. After his breakout year in 2017, he has the chance to build.
Brooks Koepka
The American has produced some strong finishes since May, starting with his second place at the Fort Worth Invitation. He landed the big US Open title in mid-June and over the weekend came home 5th at Bridgestone. So the potential is there for him to make a decent fist of this. He will certainly have more appeal than the likes of Justin Rose who has had a back problem, Jordan Spieth who isn’t there with his form and Rickie Fowler who keeps on missing at the Majors. Koepka took at T5 at the 2015 PGA Championship and then a T4 in 2016 so has a decent track record at the event. For sure he looks some value at 4/1 for a top-five finish* (betting odds taken on July 6th, 2018 at 7:42 pm).
2018 US PGA Championship Top 10 Finish Odds
Dustin Johnson evens
Rory McIlroy 6/4
Justin Thomas 6/4
Justin Rose 9/4
Jordan Spieth 5/2
Brooks Koepka 9/4
Rickie Fowler 5/2
Jon Rahm 11/4
Jason Day 9/4
Tiger Woods 3/1
Francesco Molinari 11/4
Tony Finau 7/2
Patrick Reed 7/2
Paul Casy 7/2
Henrik Stenson 7/2
Alex Noren 9/2
Patrick Cantlay 4/1
Xander Schauffele 11/2
Hideki Matsuyama 5/1
Bar 6/1
* (betting odds taken on July 6th, 2018 at 7:42 pm)
Some Trends
Ten of the last 12 major titles have now gone to a first-time winner. The last three PGA Championship winners have all be first timers, culminating in Thomas last season so there is a bit of a trend there to look outside those who have won one of golf’s biggest prizes during their career. It appears to be the easiest of the Majors at which players can break their duck.
So looking at that a little more you could look at someone with a big price and just think back a year ago because Thomas was at 50/1 ahead of the tournament. The year before that Jimmy Walker won it from around 200/1 pre-tournament. But don’t go too big perhaps as every single major since 2012 has been won by a player sitting inside the current top fifty in the world.
You are also likely going to be wanting to look at a player who has previously won a tournament as well. All but three of the last US PGA winners had previously won a tournament during that year before picking up the Major. There does appear to be a bit of a value in looking for a player who had a strong performance in their final tournament prior to the PGA Tour as well. Looking at Firestone particularly, all but two of the last six winners of the PGA Championship were in contention at Firestone in the week prior to picking up the US PGA title.
Predictions
Of the lot we like the look of Thomas, who has successfully defended a title before, albeit not a Major of course. However, title defences specifically at the US PGA have been rare (with only Tiger Woods having done it) so we are just going to have to look past him. He’s worth a small bet, but nothing big we feel.
Dustin Johnson ticks a lot of boxes with his current form but the price on him doesn’t offer a lot but still, those two do look to be the ones to beat this week. We are going to take a look at a solid performance at Firestone coupled with a top-fifty and current form. Along with a seeker of a first Major.
So with that in mind, we like the look of Tommy Fleetwood who has had such a good year and is nicely set at 28/1 odds* (betting odds taken on July 6th, 2018 at 7:42 pm).
As a long shot you have Thorbjorn Olesen who powered his way impressively to a T3 at Firestone on the back of a T12 at The Open and is a big 70/1 shot* (betting odds taken on July 6th, 2018 at 7:42 pm) but perhaps worth a little flutter.
He is outside of the top-fifty ranking though. The final one we will look at is Tony Finau who has the distinction of being the only player to have landed top-ten finishes at each of this season’s Major while Xander Schauffele has had top-six finishes at the last two Majors.
