Premier League Odds Updates – November 18th, 2018
The Premier League heads into another break, so it is another good chance to take stock of the main betting markets. There has been a clear separation between the top sides in the league and the rest, with Man City, Liveprool, Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal all making lightwork of teams outside of the top six.
Manchester City took a marquee win just before the international break in landing a home success in the Manchester derby over rivals United. Liverpool though are still there hot on the heels of the Citizens. At the other end of the table, there have been signs of fight from the likes of Newcastle, Cardiff and Huddersfield, but times are tough for bottom side Fulham.
Premier League Title Race
Well, it would appear that this isn’t so much of a five-horse race after all. Manchester City take a two-point lead into the November international break with them. Those odds of 1/4 on Manchester City taking the title* (betting odds taken on November 11th, 2018 at 9:33 pm) translates to an implied 80% chance by the bookmaker that Pep Guardiola’s men will pull off a repeat of last season’s success.
That is a W10 D2 record that they have posted so far and they have averaged exactly three goals per game. On their return, they only have one fixture against a side currently in the top four until they meet Liverpool on December 31st (that is Chelsea on December 8th). So it’s a pretty comfortable run of fixtures for them. Liverpool are the ones on their coattails although their form dipped a little with a W3 D3 record in their last six league games before the break.
Premier League Winner Odds*
Manchester City 1/4
Liverpool 4/1
Chelsea 20/1
Tottenham 40/1
Arsenal 125/1
Manchester United 200/1
* (betting odds taken on November 11th, 2018 at 9:33 pm)
Table of Contents
Reds and Blues still unbeaten
But for the Reds, it looked as if Mo Salah was getting back to his best and the Reds have a very impressive home record running for them this season. The Reds Will face Manchester United, Arsenal and Manchester City before the end of the calendar year so that could be a bit of a defining run for them over the next couple of months. Jurgen Klopp’s men are at 4/1 odds to take the title* (betting odds taken on November 11th, 2018 at 9:33 pm).
Even though Chelsea have remained unbeaten, the only other side apart from Man City and Liverpool to do so thus far, the Blues are out at 20/1 odds* (betting odds taken on November 11th, 2018 at 9:33 pm). They dropped points in a draw against Everton just before break and it has long been suggested that they are not going to have the legs to stay the distance. They certainly don’t have such enviable depth in their squad compared to that of Manchester City, but to their credit, they outscored Liverpool by four goals over the course of the opening dozen games of the campaign.
Premier League Winner Prediction
This is probably a done deal already. Manchester City have looked head and shoulders above everyone else once again. There have been periods from them this season where no team in the world have been able to touch there. There have also been times when they have dug things out. City all the way.
Top 4 Finish Odds*
Man City 1/1000
Liverpool 1/25
Chelsea 1/5
Tottenham 1/2
Arsenal 6/4
Manchester United 7/2
Everton 50/1
100/1 bar
* (betting odds taken on November 11th, 2018 at 9:33 pm)
So you can pretty much predict that Manchester City, Liverpool and probably Chelsea can earn themselves a top four place taking into consideration what they have shown so far. But it will be interesting to see who manages to squeeze into the top four alongside them if that is the case. Manchester United certainly are the ones of the big six who have looked them most unlikely to secure a Champions League spot for next season through a top-four finish.
But things could be tight between Spurs and Arsenal. Arsenal have started to show some signs that they could get back to much better things. New boss Unai Emery seems capable of injecting that spark in them which could get them together for a top-four challenge. But Spurs, even though we haven’t seen the best of them like we have over the last couple of seasons, have found ways to keep churning out the results. They have produced a lot of fine margin success though and haven’t been at their fluent best.
Premier League Top 4 Prediction:
Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea look good options, but we would lean towards Arsenal joining them over Spurs. Tottenham’s season has been all about very fine margins and that could easily dwindle away when the tough winter months and bush schedules take their toll. Arsenal just looks a bit more cohesive and dangerous at the moment.
Premier League Relegation
Huddersfield at 4/9 odds* (betting odds taken on November 11th, 2018 at 9:33 pm) implies a probability of almost 70% that they are going to get relegated this season. It’s not too difficult to reach that conclusion with them picking up just seven points (W1 D4) in their opening twelve games. They did however at least show some fight with four points in two games before the international break.
Cardiff have bagged two wins in their last four games, totally out of the blue, to lift themselves away from the bottom of the table, but overall still look as if they are going to have a massive struggle to stay up. So too Fulham who are rock bottom with five points. They came up with some optimism and a wealth of summer signings to strengthen them. It’s been dire from them and boss Slavisa Jokanovic may not be in charge when they come back from the international break. Or if so, not long afterwards if the wins don’t start coming.
The other teams who look in danger are Southampton and Crystal Palace. The Saints actually look well out of their depth this season and have managed only the one win in their twelve games this season and they have such terrible home form in the top flight they have to be at risk. Crystal Palace have shown more fighting spirit but seem to be down in their luck regardless and are sorely lacking quality in the final third.
Premier League Relegation Odds*
Huddersfield 4/9
Cardiff 8/15
Fulham 813
Burnley 5/4
Newcastle 3/1
Southampton 4/1
Crystal Palace 9/2
Brighton 10/1
West Ham 22/1
66/1 bar
* (betting odds taken on November 11th, 2018 at 9:33 pm)
Premier League Relegation Prediction:
Huddersfield and Cardiff are still looking strong candidates to take the drop, but if Fulham change things up, get a bit of defensive strength in quickly, they could turn the corner. The ones that we see as being most at risk are Southampton. They just look devoid of fight, of depth and of quality and they have a tough run of games before the end of the year. They have to face Man Utd, Spurs, Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea before the turn of the new year. That could leave them floundering badly at the start of 2019. Huddersfield, Cardiff and Southampton to go.
