Does the destination of the Premier League title look done and dusted? Manchester United are sitting top of the Christmas table, four points clear of defending champions Manchester City. Since climbing to the top of the table, the Red Devils have been strong favourites to go on and reclaim their title. Online bookmaker Bet365 have the Red Devils installed as 8/15 favourites at the moment to go on and take the title. However, there is of course great history linked between the team top of the table at Christmas and the eventual league winners. This is because the season is half done and anyone holding an advantage at this point is naturally a strong front runner.
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But what does history say? What are the stats surrounding Christmas leaders? The team who have been sitting top of the league at Christmas has gone on to win the league the same season just nine times out of 20 seasons. So that is less than a 50% shot on United winning the 2012/13 Premier League. It means that the above listed price on the Red Devils is not tremendous value at all.
United’s strike rate
In Premier League history, United have been the Christmas leaders six times and have converted four of those occasions into league titles. Manchester City did it last season in a last gasp effort from Sergio Aguero, taking the title after being Christmas number one. That was the third season in a row that the Christmas leaders had taken the title. Will there be a fourth this term? The thing in United’s favour is that they are generally specialists when it comes to the busy month of December. Not including this season United have won 19 of 25 matches played in the Premier League during the month of December since the 2007/08 season. Only Arsenal can match United’s points haul of December points (59pts). Another thing about United’s festive history is that they have won seventeen and lost just one of their last 20 Boxing Day fixtures (winning the last eight in a row). Christmas consistency could get United out of sight come the New Year.
Will QPR win again in 2013?
City the only side to mount a challenge?
So while the odds are short on the Red Devils converting, is it worth looking at value beyond Manchester United? Of course. In the final round of matches before Christmas, Man City cut a six point deficit down to just four as they secured a late three points against a resilient Reading, and United were held to a draw by Swansea. Manchester City are trading at good value of 2/1 with online bookmaker Bet365 in Premier League outright winner odds. This does represent value as the Citizens have shown tremendous resilience this season, pulling points out of the bag. There is still room for improvement though and they could push off on a very good run. They have it in them. They simply are value because they are highly likely to be the only other side in with a shot at the title come the end of the season. City have won 13 of 27 fixtures in December since the 2007/08 season and have won four and drawn one of their last five Boxing Day fixtures.
Long shots Chelsea and beyond
Falling further back out in the Premier League winner odds are Chelsea who are at long odds of 12/1 with online bookmaker Bet365. Rafa Benitez’s men really don’t look that much of a threat to muscle their way into the Manchester monopoly. All three of Chelsea’s league titles have come when they have been leading at Christmas, and with them being eleven points off the lead despite being in third place this time around, a Chelsea renaissance looks highly unlikely. That is about the sum of all your Premier League outright winner betting odds really, with the challenges of Arsenal, Everton and Spurs ranging out from 66/1 to 200/1.
Boxing Day Stats
Man United: Have won eight in a row now, losing just one of their last twenty,winning seventeen of them
Man City: Have taken four wins and a draw from their last five PRemier League Boxing Day fixtures
Chelsea: Have taken three wins and four draws of their last seven Boxing Day matches. They have drawn the last four in a row
Premier League Outright winner odds at online bookmaker Bet365
Man United 8/15, Man City 2/1, Chelsea 12/1, Arsenal 66/1, Tottenham 175/1, Everton 200/1, Liverpool 60/1
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