Premier League Relegation Odds Update – West Ham into 2/1 for the drop

Slumping Irons heading towards the drop?

Issa Diop /West Ham ©imago images / Action Plus 27.01.2020

With this weekend’s break for the FA Cup fourth round, it is a good time to take stock of some Premier League issues. Given that Liverpool are streaking away to the title, the options there are not even on the table at this point.

But when it comes to things at the other end of the table, it is a totally different picture. Relegation is a real threat for some. A recent slump from West Ham has seen them fall into danger again.

The Irons join Watford and Bournemouth on 23 points each, the latter two in the drop zone alongside the surely-doomed Norwich.

Premier League Relegation Odds*

Norwich 1/4
Bournemouth 10/11
Aston Villa Evens
West Ham 2/1
Watford 2/1
Brighton 10/3
Newcastle 6/1
Burnley 12/1
Crystal Palace 12/1
Southampton 40/1
Bar 100/1
* (betting odds taken from Bet365 on January 23rd, 2020 at 9:43 pm)

Norwich as good as down?

There is no point looking at Premier League relegation betting and including Norwich. They are six points from safety at the moment, with the worst defensive record going in the top flight. With each passing week, they slide further and further away from safety.

They have some tough games on their return. Following a trip to Newcastle at the start of February, Norwich face Liverpool, Wolves and Leicester in a three-match spin. Relegation is not mathematically certain of course, but they need miracles.

The Thirty-Pointers

From 10th placed Arsenal down to 14th placed Newcastle, there are five teams sat on 30 points, five points clear of the drop zone. Considering that leaves six teams below that line, we are going to skip over those 30-pointers as being genuine relegation candidates at this point.

West Ham Relegation


West Ham’s slump gaining attention

When David Moyes was brought back for a second spell with West Ham, things couldn’t have gotten off to a better start. West Ham produced a thumping 4-0 home win over the struggling Bournemouth and things suddenly looked much brighter for the Irons.

Three matches later with only one point from that run, West Ham suddenly find themselves level on points with the Cherries and only out of the drop zone on goal difference. Getting dumped out of the FA Cup by Championship side West Brom on the weekend didn’t help morale much.

Come the end of February and West Ham could be in big peril. They do have a game in hand over those around them, that game, however, is against Liverpool.

In their next four Premier League games, West Ham have to face Liverpool twice as well as taking a trip to Manchester City. A home game against Brighton at the start of February may be their only relief in that spell.

It gets worse.

Seven of their next nine Premier League games are against teams who are currently in the top seven in the league. West Ham have already been trimmed down to 2/1 odds in Premier League relegation betting and laying that fixture list out, those odds could shorten considerably quickly* (betting odds taken from Bet365 on January 23rd, 2020 at 9:43 pm).

Will the season end with a sour taste for the Cherries?

Bournemouth did win their last Premier League game, a home success over Brighton. They needed that as well as they had been on a four-match losing streak. Bournemouth have lost 10 of their last 13 league games, failing to score in seven of their last ten played.

There are problems there for Eddie Howe’s men and they are 10/11 odds on for the drop* (betting odds taken from Bet365 on January 23rd, 2020 at 9:43 pm).

When they return to league action on February 1st, they have a huge fixture against Aston Villa at the Vitality to play. With the Villains two points ahead of them, that is a crucial fixture for Bournemouth.

The Cherries are on very shaky ground at the moment with only two sides having scored fewer league goals. Their last two league losses have been against Watford and Norwich, alarmingly the only two sides beneath them in the standings.

Can Watford’s revival under Pearson go all the way to safety?

Watford’s surge of form under Nigel Pearson (W4 D2 L2) has given the Hornets a great shot at safety. They were unbeaten in six games before suffering a major setback with their survival hopes in a loss at Aston Villa last time out. Three points there and the Hornets would have been breathing much more freely.

But there is still a lot of work to do for Watford to do. Considering that they won only one game from the start of the season through to December 14th, it is remarkable that they can even be looking at any kind of light at the end of the tunnel.

Only two of their next five games are at home, however, and one of those is against Liverpool. The Hornets are at 2/1 to suffer relegation* (betting odds taken from Bet365 on January 23rd, 2020 at 9:43 pm).

Key Facts – playera vs playerb Betting Tip

  • 7 of West Ham’s next 9 games are aginast top seven teams
  • Big Bournemouth v Aston Villa clash when EPL returns on Feburary 1st
  • Watford with one winnable-looking home game in next 5 fixtures


Can Villa’s goals keep them afloat?

The one thing that Aston Villa have had going for them this season is goals. They are the highest scoring side in the bottom half of the table. While they currently boast the joint second-worst defensive record in the top flight it could be their scoring output, especially at home, that could get them across the finish line.

The Villains have won two of their last three home games and those were telling wins in relegation battles against Norwich and Watford. When they come back to league action they hit the road and go to Bournemouth.

That’s such a huge fixture for Dean Smith’s men as a win would see them open up a five-point cushion over the Cherries. The Villains are currently even money for the drop* (betting odds taken from Bet365 on January 23rd, 2020 at 9:43 pm).

Brighton not out of the woods yet

The Seagulls maintained their Premier League status at the end of last season by the skin of their teeth. They finished fourth from bottom despite not winning any of their final eight games of the season (D3 L5). Brighton are currently two points above the drop zone, but with only two points secured from their last four games and only one win in their last nine league fixtures, they aren’t out of the woods yet.

However, one thing that they do have going for them is a decent home record. Brighton have lost just one of their last five at the Amex. To their credit, Brighton have avoided defeat at home this season against any team currently sat inside the bottom half of the table alongside them.

It looks as if their survival is going to hinge on scrapping every point out at home. Brighton are 10/3 in Premier League relegation betting* (betting odds taken from Bet365 on January 23rd, 2020 at 9:43 pm).

Premier League Relegation Predictions

Norwich are going to be playing in the Championship once again next season. It’s just too hard to see a way out of their troubles. West Ham at 2/1 is the big call for us* (betting odds taken from Bet365 on January 23rd, 2020 at 9:43 pm).. Their next four opponents have averaged 2.17 points per game between them. West Ham are currently only averaging 1 point per game this season.

So February could get pretty rough for them and after spending so much over the summer, aren’t likely to risk shopping in what is left of the January transfer window. The other pick for the drop is Watford. Having had their momentum bust against Aston Villa will have knocked them back.

Bournemouth are in a mess with no punch in attack, but they seem to trust in Eddie Howe’s plans. Watford have one winnable looking home game in their next five league fixtures which could leave them in big trouble at the end of February. Unless of course, they can get over that major Villa setback.