A game of two halves. Whoever came up with this understatement wasn’t joking.
The stats for each half of football matches may well prove helpful in avoiding those “coupon busters”.
It’s surprising that there are always one or two teams whose away performances overshadow their home efforts.
When we split the stats into two halves this becomes more apparent.
The stats below are compiled from tables taking into account only FIRST HALF FORM. Only the top few sides in each category
have been used.
Going back as far as 2003/4 season. Premiership home team stats.
First Half wins. Full Time wins. Man. Utd. 11 12 +1 Newcastle 10 11 +1 Aston V 10 9 -1 Arsenal 9 15 +6 First Half draws. Full Time draws. Full Time wins Liverpool 10 4 10 Everton 10 5 8 Blackburn 9 4 5 Chelsea 8 4 12 Man. City 8 9 5 Wolves 8 5 7
Basically it appears that once the HOME side take the lead, in the first half, it’s rare for them to LOSE the game.
The worst that seems to happen is that they might just DRAW. Always ensuring that the odds offered are a fair representation of the bet,it might appear that a LAY bet is worth considering. Obviously there is scope here for delving deeper into possible other outcomes.
With the odd exception games, which are drawn at half time can be expected to return approximately 50% draws at full time.
Now this is all in the past, so let’s move forward and see what advances, if any at all, have been made.
Season 2010/11. Premiership home team stats
First Half wins. Full Time wins. Man. Utd. 16 18 +2 Man. City 11 13 +2 Chelsea. 9 14 +5 Liverpool. 9 12 +3 First Half Draws. Full Time draws. Full Time wins 'Spurs 11 9 9 Arsenal 10 4 11 Wigan 10 8 5 Blackburn 9 7 7 Sunderland 9 5 7 Aston Villa 9 7 8 Everton 9 7 9
Here again, HOME teams taking a first half lead tend to run out match winners.
Here also, games which are tied at half time tend to produce at least 50% draws at full time.
This is just a cursory look at the way things appear to not have changed all that much. They do say that history repeats itself but a deeper delving into the in-between seasons may prove useful too.
With most teams having only played 14 games, it’s a bit too soon to make any meaningful comparisons with this seasons stats.
However I am putting up some interesting figures for perusal only. They might give a lead or two to what might follow.
First Half wins. Full Time wins. Chelsea 5 5 +- 'Spurs 5 5 +- Liverpool 4 2 -2 Man. City. 4 7 +3 Norwich City 4 3 -1 First Half draws. Full Time draws. Full Time wins Arsenal 5 1 5 Sunderland 5 3 1 Blackburn 5 0 2 W.B.A. 5 1 2
Although these stats only cover three or so months of the season, it’s interesting to see familiar names re-appearing in the same slots. Whether or not they will be there at the seasons end is pure conjecture of course.
They do, of course, give a little indication in the way certain teams are performing at home.
Arsenal’s 5 first half draws and 5 full time wins would suggest that they are serious candidates when considering Half-time draw/Full-time home trading strategy. In fact, three of the First Half draws ended as Home wins.
For those interested, there have been FIRST HALF GOALS in four of Arsenal’s seven home games, to date.
GOALS GALORE.
Once again it would appear that the PREMIERSHIP is heading for a bagful of goals this season.
At present it is just four one hundreths of a goal away from an average of 3 goals per match. With 59% of games going OVER 2.5 goals.
The only league of any consequence that has a better average is the Dutch Eridivision hitting 3.32 goals per game and having 64% of games over 2.5 goals.
For some reason, the past couple of seasons has seen a rise in the average number of goals per game. At present the “blame” can be laid at the doors of the to five in the table as they are each averaging at least two goals per game.
What also makes it less understandable is the fact that there are some very tight defences out there too. Five of the top six in the table have conceded just 75 goals in 72 games.
There are some suspect defences in the league. Six sides have conceded more than 25 goals apiece. Two giving away 70 goals between them.
As we are heading towards the New Year, we can expect some more rousing games when the “stayers” really make their form tell.
So the outlook is exciting if you like seeing the goals roll in.
Matched Bets.
A number of NEW bookmakers are advertising their presence on the internet.
All You Bet.com is offering a 50% bonus up to £100.00.
My Bet.com is offering 25% up to £50.00 by way of a matched bet.
However the one which took my eye is ODDS FUTURES.com which is offering £20.00 bonus.
Now this is a brand new venture. They don’t want you to forecast a match result. They don’t even want you to find the winner of a horse or greyhound race. they want you to forecast which way odds on a particular event will move. You choose the event for yourself.
This concept will need a lot of studying before i can make any sort of conclusion but I thought it would be good to let everyone know what was out there.
ANOTHER SCAM?
This morning my mailbox is cluttered up with countless e-mails from “ASSOCIATES” trying to sell yet another UNBEATABLE system.
INVISIBLE DASH is it’s name and although these e-mails are the first relating to this system, they warn me that it will be sold out in 5 MINUTES. These e-mails all arrived at different times with the same message. Has somebody managed to stop the passage of time.
How good or bad this system is only time will tell but forewarned is forearmed.
As we hit the Festive Season don’t forget. Bet with your HEAD not your HEART.
