We’ve now reached a point in the current season where to all intents and purposes stats mean very little. Some teams have it all to play for, whilst others just have to go thru’ the motions, in the knowledge that they’ll still be in the same division next season. Games amongst these teams usually turn out to be tame affairs. The edge has gone from the game and the tackles are not as hard or as regular as you would expect. C’est la vie!
As the interest may be moving towards the next season’s games I intend to go backwards and check-out some stats from previous seasons which may have bearings to future seasons and should be of interest to everyone.
Initially I’m looking at the Half-time/Full-time stats. As is usual I’ll begin with looking at home teams and how they have fared over the last eleven seasons.(Excluding this season).
PREMIERSHIP. Home/Home Home/Draw Home/Away Totals. 2010/2011 114 19 5 138 2009/2010 129 19 5 153 2008/2009 101 16 9 126 2007/2008 109 20 11 140 2006/2007 114 14 6 134 2005/2006 122 17 8 147 2004/2005 96 22 4 122 2003/2004 110 17 7 134 2002/2003 114 21 7 142 2001/2002 107 21 7 135 2000/2001 110 23 5 138 ----- ----- ---- ----- 1226 209 74 1509
Apart from the odd hiccup, each column is within a fairly tight range. Hopefully, proving that these are the kind of figures that can be expected to prevail over the average season.
In reality, any side taking a HALFTIME lead will keep it on four occasions out of five. On the occasions when it doesn’t keep it’s lead it will only end in defeat once every five occasions. The big ask is, of course, being able to assess when these odd occasions are going to happen. Maybe a crystal ball job?
In general the home sides with the best records in the above stats, tend to be what are generally known as the Big Four.
These sides are currently considered to be Man.Utd, Man.City, Arsenal and Chelsea. Only occasionally will there be an interloper.
Next comes the set of stats which feature The Half-time Draw.
PREMIERSHIP. Draw/Home Draw/Draw Draw/Away Totals. 2010/2011 54 70 28 152 2009/2010 52 60 31 143 2008/2009 66 62 43 171 2007/2008 61 62 33 156 2006/2007 60 66 44 170 2005/2006 63 52 39 154 2004/2005 69 63 49 181 2003/2004 47 71 36 154 2002/2003 64 49 41 154 2001/2002 51 60 37 148 2000/2001 61 57 34 152 ----- ---- ---- ----- 648 672 415 1735
Here again we have sets of figures which are pretty well within a reasonable range. As can be expected, there is the odd jump or fall over the period covered. The most “compact” is the first column. The surprising thing here is that the generally expected favoured result doesn’t work out as it should. Draw/Home is often proffered as a good betting medium, however these stats don’t agree with that advice.
The general conclusion here must be that a home team level at halftime will only lose one in four games. The trick is to find which teams are likeliest to succumb in this way.
The Draw/Away column is very much in-line with the general return of AWAY wins, approximately 24%.
The final set of stats in this mini series are below.
PREMIERSHIP. Away/Home Away/Draw Away/Away Totals. 2010/2011 11 22 57 90 2009/2010 12 17 55 84 2008/2009 7 19 58 84 2007/2008 6 18 60 84 2006/2007 8 18 50 76 2005/2006 7 8 64 79 2004/2005 8 25 45 78 2003/2004 10 20 60 90 2002/2003 9 20 55 84 2001/2002 7 20 70 97 2000/2001 13 21 56 90 ---- ---- ---- ---- 98 208 630 936
Here again, returns are fairly tight, with the odd exception.
Here the away side that leads at half-time is likely to win on two of eveery three occasions. In fact it will only fail to at least draw one game in ten.
The 70 Away/Away return in 2001/2002 season is coincidental with a 30% return on away games for the whole season.
A Premiership record. This looks as if it will be broken this season as it stands at 31.1% with 20 games left to play.
In general, the half-time score can only be regarded as a “pointer”. A little bit of study into current form and the Head-to-Head stats will often give a much sounder hint.
One thing that may bear looking into, is the increase in the number of goals being scored in the Premiership over the last couple of seasons. The effect on match outcomes is obvious but not whether there is an underlying on half-time situations.
Only time will tell.
The above stats cover 4180 matches. it will be interesting to see how the current season matches-up with them.