With Real Madrid and Barcelona having dominated the recent UEFA Champions League seasons the odds going down in this season’s campaign suggests that punters are expecting a couple of new forces to rise to the top and challenge the old guard. Between them, Barcelona and Real Madrid have won five of the last seven Champions league titles and in 2017, Real Madrid became the first side ever to successfully retain the title. But now punters are thinking the old guard may be about to fall and they are putting their stock in PSG and Manchester City to throw down serious challenges.
The rising forces of PSG & Man City
The two sides who have been developing as the strongest new series challengers to get their hands on the Champions League title this season are Manchester City and PSG, with good reason as well. Manchester City reached the semi finals of the UEFA Champions League in the 2015/16 when they lost out to Real Madrid. Many thought that with Pep Guardiola arriving, they would be making a good run again the following season. It didn’t quite pan out that was as they lost out on away goals in that crazy 6-6 aggregate draw with Monaco in the round of sixteen.
But this season, Manchester City have hit the ground running in both Europe and on the domestic front and are serious challengers this go around for the title. No-one is going to want to face up to them. After dominating their group stage they look as solid of a bet to win the thing outright as the two Spanish giants are, more so perhaps the way the odds are going. Plus now, they have been fully moulded into Pep Guardiola’s way and their overall results this season have confirmed that they are currently on a different level to what they have been before.
PSG have put a lot of stock into Neymar following his massive transfer over from Barcelona to the French capital. The Brazilian was brought in to help give PSG them an extra edge on the European front. With a game to spare, PSG set a new Champions League record for group stage goals this season as they piled seven goals past Celtic in the City of Light on match day five. That took their tally to 24 goals in Group B with another fixture to come on Match Day Six still against Bayern Munich. Like Manchester City, they have an abundance of scoring power, talent, depth and have a world class striker in Edinson Cavani firing on all cylinders this season.
PSG have gone out at the quarter finals in three of their last four UEFA Champions League campaigns and they want better. You can tell that they are hungry for it. In last season’s round of sixteen they pummeled Barcelona 4-0 in the first leg before falling to that stunning 6-1 second leg comeback that Barcelona, inspired by Neymar, pulled out of their hat. That’s not going to happen this time around as they have bought the man that destroyed them. PSG are a massively ambitious club with plenty of spending money as they have already shown over the summer. But can they take things to the next level and claim that Champions League trophy? The way that they tore Bayern Munich apart in Paris in the Group Stage would suggest that they can get pretty close. They are one to fear.
Old Guard Fading?
Real Madrid have looked far more vulnerable in their domestic campaign this season, where they are trying to defend their title, and they could only get second place in their Champions League group to Tottenham this season as well. The Spaniards only collected the one point against the Lilywhites, losing heavily in London against the Premier League side. Barcelona pipped Italian giants Juventus to top spot in their group but struggled with back to back 0-0 draws at Olympiacos and Juve along the way. Barcelona not scoring? Then there is Bayern Munich who have already had a change of manager this season and were humiliated by PSG in the group stage.
Betting reflects belief in new challengers
In the middle of September, Bayern Munich were running with around a 13% probability of winning the Champions League and PSG were just around the same mark. The paths the two have taken since then tells a big tale as Bayern have slipped back to around a 10% chance with PSG’s probability of winning the title has gone through the roof to around 22%. It’s been a dramatic positive move, backed by punters for the French champions to taste continental glory this season.
Manchester City have seen their probability increase dramatically as well because back in mid-September they were running with around an 8% chance of winning the title but after their strong group stage campaign, they have risen to a good 18% chance of winning the Premier League title this season. Barcelona’s probability has remained pretty much the same around the 13% mark while Real Madrid, after failing to win their group which potentially puts them in a tough round of sixteen tie against an unseeded team, have seen their probability fall from 21% in September to 15% in November.
This probability is all backed and based on odds and how much punters have been throwing at the respective teams. There has been a clear decline in the standards of the likes of Bayern and Real Madrid and it hasn’t been hard to not have noticed that the sheer growing forces of PSG and Manchester City could well rise to the fore. Just to put all of this into context when was the last time that you saw neither Barcelona or Real Madrid as one of the top-two favourites to triumph in a Champions League season?
UEFA Champions League Odds at bet365
PSG 7/2, Man City 9/2, Real Madrid 11/2, Barcelona 6/1, Bayern Munich 8/1, Man Utd 16/1, Tottenham 16/1, Juventus 20/1, Chelsea 20/1, Liverpool 25/1, Roma 66/1, Napoli 801/ bar 150/1.
