QPR vs Chelsea Betting Odds, Preview & Tips – 23.10.11

QPR searching for vital home win

Premier League Betting

QPR v Chelsea Betting Tip & Odds: Well, as to be expected, Chelsea are firm favourites to win this London derby, it could just be by a matter of how many, so we will look at Asian Handicap betting for profit. So a Chelsea -1.5 Asian Handicap for Evens at Paddy Power looks like pretty good value really, as the Blues, looking at the form of things, should be able to knock a few goals in.

QPR to win: 19/2 at Victor Chandler
Draw: 4/1 at Bet365
Chelsea to win: 2/5 at Paddy Power

EPL Match Preview: There should be a great atmosphere at Loftus Road on Sunday, as the newly promoted QPR host fellow Londoners Chelsea. QPR have home advantage but they are really struggling to pick up wins at Loftus Road, and while they are struggling for goals too, many are expecting Chelsea to waltz in and pick up a strong victory to keep the pressure up on the two Manchester clubs at the top of the table. Chelsea come into the match off the back of a good week, beating Everton in the league, and then crushing FC Genk 5-0 in the Champions League, with Andre Villas Boas resting players. There is no doubt Chelsea have the supremacy here sitting ten points ahead of QPR in the league, but QPR have to pick up a win at home at some point. Will it be in a shock result against the in form Chelsea?

QPR Form: Neil Warnock’s QPR have been doing OK on their return to England’s top flight. They are just about holding their own in the middle of the table with nine points from their first eight matches. It has been a mixed bag of results for Queens Park Rangers, as expected really, and while they have scored two good wins on the road, they have also been prone to heavy defeats. They went down heavily 4-0 against Bolton on the opening day of the season, and were thumped 6-0 recently by Fulham at Craven Cottage. But QPR responded well with a battling 1-1 draw at home against Blackburn. With QPR hosting this weekend’s London derby match against illustrious neighbours Chelsea, we need to take a look at QPR’s home form, which is fair to middling as they say. Out of their four matches at home so far on the season, QPR have not managed to pick up a win yet. They have secured three draws out of those four matches though, which is a run of three straight home draws right now. They have come against Newcastle, Aston Villa and Blackburn. Clearly there is a big problem for QPR in finding the back of the net. They have managed just six league goals all season, and only two of those have come at home. So the home crowds have not had too much to shout about really, and now they face the challenge of their first match against a Big Four team from the Premier League. Although QPR are on a total run of 3 home matches without defeat, they are without a win in eight  matches at home (in all competitions), and if they are going to secure survival, they need to pick up more points at home. Against Chelsea though, that is clearly going to be a difficult proposition. They are averaging just 0.5 goals at home while conceding an average of 1.5, so their defence could be in for a difficult afternoon. QPR have conceded 6 goals at home, 14 in total so far in the season. Rangers have only scored first in 37% of their matches so far, and have yet to have anyone score more than one goal in their side. QPR’s Shaun Wright-Phillips will get to run out against his former side, while Danny Gabbidon sits out with an injury, along with striker DJ Campbell, who is out long term.

Chelsea Form: Nothing much wrong with the Blues at the moment, as Andre Villas Boas seems to be getting things together at the Bridge. Chelsea are beginning to find their shooting boots after a relatively slow start to the season by their standards. Chelsea are playing with a lot more creativity going forwards, and a lot more width. They have had an injection of pace with Daniel Sturridge playing on the right, who has been heavily amongst the goals for the Blues, while summer signing Juan Mata is really pulling the strings, drifting all over the pitch from the left. Chelsea still won’t have Fernando Torres available as he serves the last match of his ban, while midfielder Ramires misses out with a knee injury. While Chelsea’s home form this season has been flawless, they have dropped four points on the road in their four matches. Three of those were at Old Trafford, and the other was a disappointing away draw at Stoke on the opening day of the season. But Chelsea are beginning to click, having fired in twelve goals in their last three league matches, their most recent victory a 3-1 win over Everton. Chelsea are on a streak of 3 away matches with no draw, and they have scored eight away goals this season (which is more than QPR’s total goals scored for the season). Chelsea’s defence though has surprisingly not been as tight as we have gotten used to, and they have conceded five away goals. But, averaging two goals per match away from Stamford Bridge this season, Chelsea will be firm favourites to pick up three points. Their goal scoring has been spread pretty evenly through the time brackets, scoring just as many goals in the first half of matches as they have in the second. Interestingly they have not been quite as strong in opening the scoring, having scored first in just 62% of their league matches. Topping the goal scoring charts for Chelsea are Frank Lampard and Daniel Sturridge with four each, but there has been a great team contribution with goals from Chelsea. Chelsea have scored at least one goal in each of their seven matches, and have also conceded at least one goal in each of their last seven matches. 88% of Chelsea’s matches have ended Over 2.5 goals this season.

Head to Head: It has been a long time since these two sides came together in the top flight. You have to go back to the 1995/96 season for when they last met in a league match, which ended in a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge, with Chelsea winning 2-1 away at Loftus Road that season. The two sides met in the League Cup in the 2009/10 season, their most recent meeting, which Chelsea won 1-0 at home. Chelsea have a strong record against QPR, and have only lost one of the last fourteen matches against QPR in all competitions. There have only been 24 meetings between the two sides at Loftus Road, and the record is closer than you may think. QPR have won 8 of those 24, with Chelsea recording 6 wins there against the Hoops, with the other ten matches playing out as draws. QPR average 1.46 goals in this fixture, while Chelsea average 1.29 goals. Clearly most of their meetings came back in the old First and Second divisions. Out of eight Premier League meetings, Chelsea have won four, drawn three and just one win has been record by the Hoops.

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