Rafael Nadal v Roger Federer Tennis Winner Odds & Predictions

Federer can outlast old rival Nadal

Tennis Betting

Wimbledon Semi-Final Preview – 12th July, 2019 at 1.00 pm

Well, there you go. We may as well just have skipped the last eleven days and just put this semi-final fixture on the board from the get-go. It is a massive heavyweight showdown between Rafa Nadal and Roger Federer in the semi-finals of Wimbledon. It’s their first meeting at SW19 since their 2008 epic Final meeting which Nadal won.

Rafael Nadal v Roger Federer Odds*

Rafael Nadal 8/11
Roger Federer 11/10
* (Betting odds taken from Bet365 on July 11th, 2019 at 4:41 am)

Can Nadal triumph over Federer once again at Wimbledon?

Nadal, relatively fresh off his French Open success this year, is the favourite to win this semi-final tussle. He was only seeded third for the tournament which is why he has ended up in a fight in the final four against Federer. In his quarter-final match, Nadal was up against American Sam Querry and after a tight first set won by Nadal, he just then raced away to a straight-sets victory. That has been the theme of his wins in the last three rounds.

Total Sets 5


The only bigger challenge he has faced was in the second round when he was up against Nick Kyrgios. The two players don’t exactly see eye to eye and Kyrgios was winding Nadal up again, getting under his skin with his antics. But Nadal dug deep to take a four-set victory over the Australian. Nadal is a two-time Wimbledon champion, claiming the title in 2008 and 2010. He hasn’t made it to the finals in any of his last six attempts but was a losing semi-finalist 12 months ago.

Head to head

Nadal is 24-15 up in the head to head against Federer. There has been so many wonderful meetings down the years. They have met twice this year and that was back at the French Open. Nadal was totally unplayable on the clay, racing away to what was an easy straight-sets victory in the semi-finals over Federer. Prior to that though, Federer had won six in a row against Nadal. They have met three times at Wimbledon. The first in 2006 was won by Federer in the Final. That was the exact same story a year later. Fast forward another twelve months and Nadal earned some revenge.

That 2008 Final

It is one that sticks in the memory. The 2008 Wimbledon Final when Federer and Nadal met on Centre Court. Nadal was putting the heat on early and went two sets up and in the driving seat to get his first Wimbledon title. But Federer wasn’t going down without a fight. He battled back taking the next two sets on tie breaks. The final set was just intense.

Just before nightfall, Nadal managed to seal the title, finally putting an end to the Federer comeback by taking the final set 9-7. At the time it was the longest match in the history of Wimbledon as it went 12 minutes shy of five hours on court. Because of rain delays, the actual final stretched out over seven hours. It was something to behold. Arguably the greatest Wimbledon match ever.

Can Federer find a way to beat Nadal?

Federer was up against Neki Nishikori in the quarter-finals of Wimbledon 2019. He had some wobbles at the start too and had to fight off three break points to stop himself from falling 3-0 down in the first set. It wasn’t quite flowing from Federer in that first set and could do nothing to prevent the set going the way of his Japanese opponent. But then Federer clicked and won the second set 6-1 in response, before seeing out the rest of the match in straight sets.

It is two sets that Federer has dropped at Wimbledon this year. The other one was in his very first match against South Africa’s Lloyd Harris. In that one too Federer had powered back by winning the second set 6-1. He’s a bear that you don’t want to poke. The eight-time Wimbledon champion is still strutting his stuff and still powering along, forming the big three with Nadal and Novak Djokovic. He is looking for his 12th Wimbledon Final appearance.


Federer is still the greatest on grass and probably will always be. Nadal did get the better of Federer comfortably at the French Open. But that was Nadal’s domain. Wimbledon is where Federer rules and he can take down the Spaniard again. He has won two of the three previous Wimbledon meetings against Nadal and was on six-match winning streak over the Spaniard before this season’s French Open.

There have been a couple of early wobbles in matches from Federer but both times they have brought out the best in him. Federer, having played on clay this season, may be helping him in terms of match sharpness and endurance. He plays the grass better than anyone and has to be worth a look at 11/10 underdog* (Betting odds taken from Bet365 on July 11th, 2019 at 4:41 am).