Roger Federer v Rafael Nadal Betting Odds & Predictions

Tennis Betting

French Open Semi-Final Preview – Friday, June 7th

It’s the big semifinal matchup that everyone wanted to see as soon as the draw for the 2019 French Open was made. It is the old rivalry between Rafa Nadal and Roger Federer taking place on Friday for a place in the final. What a mouth-watering occasion it is going to be. Looking at the odds that bookmakers have in place, they are expecting a walkover for Nadal.

Roger Federer v Rafael Nadal Betting Odds*

Rafael Nadal 1/9
Roger Federer 11/2
* (betting odds taken from Bet365 on June 5th, 2019 at 10:41 pm)

Federer finds form

There had been little or next to no form from Federer this season heading into Roland Garros. Certainly, none on clay. But once again the master has come good in reaching the final four of a Grand Slam and once again he has progressed with a relative degree of ease. He has dropped just the one set on his way to the semi-finals.

Under 34.5 Games



That one dropped set happened in his quarter-final tussle against fellow countryman Stan Wawrinka. It was a fantastic, tight battle. But once Federer had gotten his nose back in front in the third set after a tie break, the outcome looked less and less in doubt. During his long career, Federer has won the French Open title once, which was back in 2009. He hasn’t been to the final since 2011. In fact, this has been some return because he hasn’t played in the last three editions.

Head to Head

If you look at the long head to head record that these two have, it is Nadal who leads 23-15. That’s a pretty commanding lead that he has. However, Federer has won the last five matches between the pair of them, which have all be on hard court.

Five times before they have met on the dirt at Roland Garros and it has been Nadal who has prevailed in each of them. This will be the first French Open meeting between Nadal and Federer since 2011.

Nadal back in the groove

Reigning French Open Champion Rafael Nadal is going strong then. He is looking for a remarkable twelfth title at this Grand Slam. Yes, twelfth. Because of injury, it had been a fairly quiet season from him, but he has come roaring back, peaking at just the right time for the pinnacle of the clay court season. As you would expect of Nadal, who only has one clay title to his name this season, it has been a fairly comfortable run to the final.

He makes it look too easy. He has dropped just one set, which was against David Goffin in the third round. It came after Nadal had been 2-0 up in the match. Nadal hit back immediately shutting the door on any hint of a comeback from the Belgian. That’s it, he has played sixteen sets at Roland Garros this season on his way to the final four. Only two of those Nadal has given up more than three games in.


Nadal is on the money and you wouldn’t back against him on clay at all. Federer has had a good run but it has not been in the face of any real challenge. He will get one from Nadal of course. While Federer has the head to head momentum against the Spaniard, it is still so difficult in seeing Nadal fail to win this. A Nadal 3-0 in set betting is at 4/6* (betting odds taken from Bet365 on June 5th, 2019 at 10:41 pm). Federer’s likely not going to have the answers to Nadal’s attack on clay.