As I mentioned recently I’ve delved into the results of some of the more used foreign leagues and looked at the outcome of the matches where the AWAY side have been leading at Half-time. There were some very interesting conclusions.
For instance, in the French League only 2 HOME sides managed to turn the game around. In other words 96% of Lay the home side bets after half-time bets, were successful. Unfortunately I can’t find any stats covering odds available but with just TWO losers from 48 bets a profit must have been certain.
Spain’s La Liga fared slightly better. Only 2 winning HOME side from 52 games. Slightly in excess of 96%. Here again a profit would be assured would be assured.
Individual leagues are as follows:
Spain. (Each team having played 20 games so far) A total of 52 (26%) games went to the AWAY side at half-time. Final results were, 2 HOME wins, 9 DRAWS and 41 AWAY wins.
LAY the losing HOME team at Half-time bets were successful 50 out of 52. (96%).
LAY the DRAW at Half-time had 43 successful outcomes from 52. (83%).
In 12 games there were no “further goals scored” after half-time. Dutching both teams to be next goal scorer in all games you would be lucky to break-level. However, using even a basic staking plan it would be criminal not to have made a profit.
On 9 occasions the AWAY side was leading by at least 2 goals. 8 games ended as a AWAY wins (89%) and the other ONE was a DRAW.
Italy. (Each team having played 20 games). A total of 33 matches (16.5%) saw the AWAY team leading at half-time. The FINAL scores resulted in 4 HOMES, 5 DRAWS and 24 AWAY wins.
LAY the losing Home team at Half-time, resulted in 29 winning bets from 33. (88% success).
LAY the DRAW at Half-time had 28 successful outcomes from 33 games. (85% success).
In 5 games there were “no further goals” scored giving plenty of scope for a profitable outcome when “Dutching both teams to be “next goal scorers” in ALL the games.
On 9 occasions the AWAY side led at Half-time by 2 or more goals. 7 of these ended as AWAY wins,(78%) with the other two split between a home win and a Draw,
Germany. The Bundesliga went into their winter break when all teams had played 17 games. These stats revolve around those games. There were 43 games (28%) which at Half-time had the visiting team in the lead. The FINAL scores resulted in 5 HOMES, 9 DRAWS and 29 AWAYS.
LAYING the losing HOME Side at Half-time ended with 38 (88%) successful out of the 43 game.
LAYING the DRAW at Half-time was a disappointing 34 (79%) out of 43 attempts.
In 8 of the games there were “no further goals” after the interval. Giving a possible small level-stakes profit when “dutching” the two sides to be “next goal scorer”. Here again, a very basic staking plan would have generated a good profit.
There were 11 games where the AWAY team was leading by 2 or more goals at the interval. These finally ended, 7 AWAY wins (78%), and 4 draws.
France. Stats here are complete up to and including week 21. A total of 210 matches having been played. A total of 48 matches had half-time scores which were in favour of the AWAY side. (23%). The FINAL scores ended 2 HOMES, 12 DRAWS and 34 AWAYS.
LAYING the losing home team at Half-time was successful on 46 of the 48 matches. (96%).
LAYING the draw at Half-time was the least successful of all the leagues studied. 36 games ended as forecast. (75%) Which is the worst of those leagues I’ve looked at.
In 11 of the matches there were “no further goals ” scored. Not viable on a level-stakes platform for “dutching” both teams but here again a basic staking plan would certainly ensure a good profit.
There were 12 matches in which the AWAY sides were leading at Half-time by 2 or more goals. One of these matches ended all-square the other 11 were AWAY wins. (92%).
Netherlands. Probably the most erratic of the popular leagues. High scoring games are a regular occurrence. These stats cover up to and including week 19. A total of 171 matches played with 39 being AWAY leaders at Half-time. (23%). These 39 matches ended, 6 HOMES, 7 DRAWS and 26 AWAYS.
LAYING the losing HOME team at Half-time was successful in 33 of the games. (85%).
LAYING the DRAW at Half-time resulted in 32 correct forecasts. (82%).
There was only ONE match which remained goalless in the second half. 38 games showing further goals. (97%).
In 13 games the AWAY side led by 2 or more goals at the interval. Only 1 HOME side was good enough to turn the tables completely. (92%).
Now we have two of the smaller European Leagues. Nevertheless the stats make interesting and hopefully, beneficial reading.
Belgium. One thing to remember when betting on this league is that it has an extremely HIGH RED CARD rate. Even STANDARD LIEGE who are league leaders are joint second in the Red Card table with 7. More about Red Cards later. These stats cover up to week 23. Up to this weekend 184 matches have been played. In these 23 weeks there have been 47 matches where the Half-time leaders were the visitors. Final results breakdown being 5 HOMES, 8 DRAWS and 34 AWAYS.
LAYING the losing HOME team at Half-time was successful on 42 out of 47 occasions (89%).
LAYING the DRAW AT Half-time finished with 39 winning bets. (83%).
There were 11 games where the visitors led by 2 or more gaols at the interval. ONE match ended all square and the other 12 were AWAY wins. Seven of these games were without further scores. An opportunity to profit when dutching both sides at Half-time.
Portugal is another 16 team league. It appears to be another league where AWAY teams play it very tight, especially in the first half. In the 24 matches in which the visiting side led at Half-time only TWO of the Home teams managed to score before the interval. 14 of the Away sides won their match to Nil. The Full-time breakdown being 2 HOMES, 3 DRAWS AND 19 AWAYS.
LAYING the losing HOME side at Half-time had a 22/24 success rate. (92%).
LAYING the DRAW at Half-time not quite as good at 21 out of 24. (88%).
FOUR visiting teams led by 2 or more gaols at Half-time and ALL 4 duly won their games. There were FIVE games where dutching both sides for “Next goal scorer” would have probably broken even, at least. Here again a small increased stake after a loser would have ensured a profit.
The above seven leagues, plus our own Premiership, are the most appealing leagues to most punters.
Something which caught my eye whilst delving in the record books was the number of RED CARDS being dished out. Some leagues appears to thrive on such a diet.
This list shows the number of red cards issued and the average number of games against each card issued.
Premiership. 27 Cards in 220 games. One card issued every 8.15 games. Bringing to round figures, so to speak, this would equate to one card each match week of ten matches. & teams are “cardless”.
Germany. 34 cards in 152 matches. One card each 4.47 games. Rounded-up gives 2 cards per match week.
Netherlands 43 cards from 180 matches. One card every 4.18 games. Approaching 3 cards per match week.
Getting into Southern Europe now,
Spain. 51 cards from 200 games. One card every 3.92 games. Almost in line with Netherlands at around 3 cards per match week.
Italy. 56 cards from 200 games. One card every 3.57 matches. Almost 3 cards per match week.
France. 55 cards from 171 matches. One card every 3.11 games. 3 cards per match week.
Belgium. 65 cards from 184 games. One card every 2.83 games. 3 cards per match week.
Red cards are fairly plentiful in what used to be a “clean” game. Apart from a fairly good “return” from the PREMIERSHIP red cards appear to be a way of life in the rest of Europe. Spain have only 3 teams without “reds” Three leagues have only 2 teams without, 1 league has 1 team without and in 2 leagues every team has at least one red to their me. Giving rise to the fallacy that football is just a game. Shame.
Figures have been rounded up, where necessary, to Two DECIMAL POINTS.
A similar trek into the summer league stats might make reading as “interesting” as the above. It will be very interesting to see if the warmer climates have any influence it the players behaviour. Perhaps the Brazilians might show a different discipline pattern to the Scandinavian leagues.
Happy punting.
