The Northumberland Plate is the biggest race of the year at Newcastle. It’s a massive social event in the north-east, though I’m not sure how much relevance it’s alternative name – ‘The Pitmen’s Derby’ – carries nowadays. For a start, there are no working mines anywhere near Newcastle any more and the race is now run on the Tapeta surface at Gosforth Park, the Turf on the Flat course having been dug up three years ago.
Northumberland Plate History and Trends
First run in 1883, the Stobart Rail and Civils Northumberland Plate is the highlight of the three-day Newcastle meeting staged at the end of June. A Class 2 handicap, the race is limited to 20 runners and run over 2m but this is only the third year that it has been run on the all-weather so it’s still early days to assess whether past trends really apply.
It’s doubtful, however, that the draw advantage which has greatly favoured those starting near the far rail will be reversed. Overturn did win from stall 21 in 2010 but had the early pace to get to the front before the first bend. Five of the last six winners have all had single-figure draws, including Antiquarium in the first running on Tapeta, but Higher Power won from stall 13 12 months ago.
Age-wise, there are no specific trends though there has only been one winner aged older than six in the last 13 years. In the last six years, horses rated between 95 and 104 have dominated but last year’s winner did buck that trend, winning off 107. Ten of the last 11 winners finished in the first five on their previous start and all of the last 11 winners had run at least twice that year.
Ante-post favourite Withhold doesn’t have a single-figure draw but has not fared too badly with stall 11. However, he hasn’t raced since running away with the Cesarewitch in October, is 12lb higher and was beaten off a 20lb lower mark on his only previous run on an artificial surface so the general 7/2 looks pitiful.
Last year’s winner Higher Power (9/1 with 888sport) is only a pound higher this year. He’s been prepared with a repeat bid in mind and should again beat last year’s fourth and stablemate Lord George (16/1 with Coral), who is 8lb worse off, though runner-up Natural Scenery (14/1 with Coral) is 3lb better off for a half-length defeat. Last year’s sixth, Sir Chauvelin, is a pound lower and is a general 20/1.
Lagostovegas (10/1 with Betfred) won the Ascot Stakes over 2m4f only last week and is probably still well treated on the Flat, despite a 5lb penalty. He’s bidding to be a first winner in the race for champion NH trainer Willie Mullins in the Northumberland Plate but jump yards have had some success in the race in the past.
AMAZING RED was beaten by Island Brave over 1m4f at Newcastle in March but that distance is too short for Ed Dunlop’s stayer. The five-year-old won on his first try over 2m at Kempton next time and a very comfortable victory over 1m6f at Newmarket three weeks ago earned him the penalty that allows him to take his chance in this valuable handicap. Jim Crowley’s mount is still near the foot of the weights and looks to have the right combination of pace and stamina to emerge successful – a stand-out 8/1 is currently available with BetVictor
Time To Study probably has too much weight but could attract each-way interest at a general 20/1 given he’s been flying high this season. Top Tug (25/1 with Coral) is having a first race over 2m on the Flat but has won over hurdles. He looks in good form but the outside draw is off-putting.
Stobart Rail and Civils Northumberland Plate Handicap Current Best Odds
Withhold 7/2, Amazing Red 8/1, Higher Power 9/1, Lagostovegas 10/1, Natural Scenery 14/1, Lord George 16/1, Sir Chauvelin and Time To Study 20/1, Byron Flyer and Curbyourenthusiasm 22/1, Island Brave, Nakeeta, Prince Of Arran, Top Tug, On To Victory and Watersmeet 25/1, Soldier In Action 33/1, Cayirli and Clever Cookie 40/1, Arch Villain 50/1 (Odds Correct at 3.45pm on June 28)
