Royal Ascot has its Ladies Day and the Friday at Aintree’s Grand National meeting is when all of Merseyside gets to show off its finery. You’ll find the Cheshire set at Chester’s Roodee in the spring but Geordies have to wait until the end of June or beginning of July to get into their posh frocks and suits.
Newcastle’s Gosforth Park is the venue of choice for many a hen or stag party in high summer and the Northumberland Plate has always been held in high esteem, even when the local colliers barely had two ha’pennies to rub together for a bet. The race is not known as the ‘Pitmen’s Derby’ for nothing!
But I do wonder what the Victorian miners would have said of the race now being run on Tapeta rather than Turf. Probably something along the lines of ‘If I’d wanted to look at sand, I’d have gone to Whitley Bay!’
Northumberland Plate History and Trends
First run in 1883, the Stobart Rail Northumberland Plate is the highlight of the three-day Newcastle meeting staged at the end of June. A Class 2 handicap, the race is limited to 20 runners and run over 2m but this is only the second year that it has been run on the all-weather so I’m not sure if past trends really apply.
It’s doubtful, however, that the draw advantage which has greatly favoured those starting near the far rail will be reversed. Overturn did win from stall 21 in 2010 but had the early pace to get to the front before the first bend. The last five winners have all had single-figure draws, including Antiquarium in the first running on Tapeta, and that’s bad news for top weight Clever Cookie and the fancied Lord George.
Age-wise, there are no specific trends though there has only been one winner aged older than six in the last 12 years. In the last five years, horses rated between 95 and 104 have dominated while nine of the last 10 winners finished in the first five on their previous start. All of the last 10 winners had run at least twice that year so Flymetothestars’ comparative lack of action is a worry, though Sir Mark Prescott’s lightly-raced stayer has been the subject of a major gamble. A few of the stable’s runners in Northumberland Plate have been similarly well-supported, however, and none have won.
Natural Scenery has already won twice at Newcastle this year with his defeat of London Prize in February working out well. He looks to be Godolphin’s best hope of back-to-back victories in this prestigious handicap and is an each-way price at 9/1 with sportingbet, though one could also make a case for stable companion Good Run (a general 20/1) on his form at the track.
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Higher Power also has to go on the short-list having chased home subsequent Ascot Gold Cup winner Big Orange in a Group 3 at Sandown last time. He has solid form on Polytrack so should handle the surface. Odds of 8/1 are a fair reflection of his chances, however, and we prefer to give last year’s second SEAMOUR another chance.
Though only a best 11/2, this has been the target for Brian Ellison’s consistent stayer since he was collared inside the final furlong by Antiquarium 12 months ago. You could argue that he has more to do off a 4lb higher mark but he was a real eye-catcher on his reappearance in a Listed race at York when in need of the run. This will be his third try at winning this race and he deserves a change of luck. Jaameh (10/1 in a couple of places) is an improving stayer and has a nice draw but the penalty he’s picked up for winning at Newmarket may just have tipped him over the edge.
Stobart Rail Northumberland Plate Current Best Odds
Flymetothestars (5/1), Seamour (11/2), Higher Power (8/1), Natural Scenery (9/1), Jaameh (10/1), Lord George (12/1), Sir Chauvelin (16/1), Yorkidding, Good Run and Hot Beat (20/1), Maleficent Queen (22/1), Clever Cookie, Suegioo, Champagne Champ, My Reward, Sam Missile and Winterlude (33/1), Corton Lad and Gavlar (40/1), Cosmelli (66/1)
