The Summer League sides are getting ready for conflict.
I find that as they run alongside the winter leagues it gives them time to settle down and gives the punter a chance to evaluate form without losing any cash.
BRAZIL.
Biggest of the summer competition, at least by repute, must be BRAZILIERO.
Competition here must be a little intense. Especially at the lower end of the table were FOUR teams are relegated to the Paulista.
A noticeable occurrence over the past 6 seasons has been the rise in drawn games. 2005 saw just over one in five ending all square.(102).
It has progressed from there to last seasons 31.1%.(118). Formerly the home stats were over the 50% mark but last season it dropped down to 47.1%.
Perhaps the level of ability is beginning to level out somewhat. Nevertheless, it’s something to keep in mind.
Goals whilst showing an average of 2.6 per game teams do seem to find it hard to score with any regularity. Best team total is 68 by Gremio Porto Alegre only 1.78 goals per game. Gremio P A and Corinthians managed only 41 goals each at home (1.07) and they were the best in the league.
Away team goals eke out at 1.0 per game. Individual team performance being best from Fluminense and Santos with 31 goals each.(0.81 per game).
Best HOME defensive side was 12th placed Ceara giving away just 12 goals in 19 games. They did rather spoil things by shipping 32 goals in away games.
Palmeiras 10th in the table were best AWAY defensive team giving away just 20 goals. Just to mix things up even further OVERALL BEST DEFENSIVE team was
Fluminense giving away just 36 goals to average 0.94 per game.
Add to these figures that in almost 10% of all games at least one team scored four or more goals.
All in all I would consider it imperitve to follow the form book but with caution.
ALLSVENSKAN. (SWEDEN)
Probably the most popular European Summer League.
Composed of 16 teams. Champions get a Champions League Qualification spot. 2nd and 3rd get Europa League Qualifications spots. Relegation is automatic for bottom two, whilst 14th placed team has a play-off against Superetten 3rd place side. Syrianska and Norrkoping were automatic promotion teams for the coming season.
Over the past few seasons honours have beenspread around without any teams really dominating as with some of the lower class leagues.
Form must be scrutinised very closely. Last seasons returns of 49.0% home wins was a vast improvement on all of the previous six seasons.
Twice the home teams returned just 39.0% wins. Real food for thought. The return for draws is also quite erratic. A low of 20.9% and a high of 30.8%.
The aways figure has been fairly constant are 28%+.
Last seasons champions were Malmo. A repeat of 2004. Since then they’ve hovered around between 5th and 10th.
Total goals last season were 601 over 240 matches. An average of 2.5 per game. Malmo were top of the scoring chart with 59 goals. 27 at home and 32 on opponents grounds.
Worst defensive side was Atvidabergs shipping 51 goals with 32 of them away from home.
With an average of 2.5 goals per game, there’s always the likelihood of a few high scoring games. Last season there were 21 games were four goals were scored by
at least one side.
57 games ended 1 – 0 or 2 – 0.
Ireland (Republic).
This league must pose quite a challenge when it comes to forecasting. Most leagues average around 47/48% on home wins. Not so here. The last few seasons
have seen figures ranging between 36% and 45%. The low 40’s should be the average expectation. Obviously someone must be gaining from the home teams low
showings and that appears to be the away sides. They regularly ring up over 30% successes. Something I have noticed over the past couple of years is the
unexpected away win. They seem to have a habit of happening when the home side looks "nailed-on".
Over the past few seasons Bohemians have been the most consistent side with Shamrock Rovers (Champions last season) and St. Patricks Athletic being not too far behind.
The League Champions get a Champions League qualifying spot. 2nd and 3rd get Europa League spots.
Bottom side is automatically relegated but 8th and 9th have a play-off to decide who meets the winner of the First Division 2nd and 3rd place play-off.
Which means it’s possible only one side will be promoted. Still with me?
Goal average per game was at a high last season at 2.6 per game. Sligo Rovers were top scorers with 61 goals. Their home win percentage of 61.1 was, along
with Shamrock Rovers, the best in the league.
Worst defensive sides were Bray Wanderers and Drogheda United who each gave away 74 goals.
Unfancied Sporting fingal were draw championa with 14 out of 36.(38.9%).
There has been some upheaval in the past couple of seasons due to cash problems. Mainly Cork City and Derry City who found themselves relegated. However Derry were
1st Division champions last season, so be prepared for a bold showing in the coming Premier season.
