Summertime and the living is anything but easy. At least when trying to make a profit.
Now is as good a time as any to look at some of the summer leagues and how AWAY sides leading at the interval fare in general. From a footballing point of view I would rate Brazil’s first division as the strongest of them all. Amongst the Scandinavian leagues Sweden’s Allsvenskanliga is very popular with most punters. The Iceland Premier division offers plenty of opportunities for those who like small leagues which barely overlap our own Premiership, running from May to September. (I feel a song coming on). LOL. Also popular is the Irish League which usually play their games on a Friday evening. I’ve also had a good look at the
Norway first division (Tippeligaen).
The more I look into this strategy the more I find that there is not a lot of difference in percentage terms regarding the concept that the AWAY side when leading at the interval, is usually a good bet to stay in the money. The side leading by 2 or more goals at half-time shows phenomenal returns, in that I’ve only found TWO occasions when The Home side has reversed the situation. One in Norway and the second in Ireland. The problem we have with the 2 goals or better sides is that any prices offered at half-time are very Scrooge like. Perhaps further investigation will give a glimmer of hope or something better.
Norway 2013.
There were 240 matches played in which 50 had the visitors ahead at the interval. (21%). The final results breakdown was…….
6 HOMES (12%), 14 DRAWS (28%) and 30 AWAYS (60%).
Teams leading by 2 or more goals at half-time, were victorious (11) or drew (3) in 14 out of 15 matches(93%).
In 44 games there were goals in the second half. (88%). Plenty of opportunities for those dutching the two sides, to,”score next goal“, to make a fair level stake profit. Those games that failed to produce further goals were well spaced throughout the season to provide a very good chance to use a slightly increasing stake on the following game.
Those that fancy LAY the DRAW Would have had 36 successes.(72%). However as the odds on offer would be rather restricting a slightly increasing stake would be needed to show a profit.
Laying the HOME side at half-time would have been a winner on 44 occasions. (88%). Here again it would be necessary to “play it by ear” regarding staking these selections.
The RED CARD count is minimal at 34, which equates to a touch over 1 card per weeks programme.
Iceland 2013.
Here we have what you might call a rather compact league of just 12 teams. Thus giving a rather short season lasting around just 5 months. They play just 132 matches in the season and as can be assumed they have a low RED CARD count at 30. Averaging just a little over ONE card per week’s programme.
Half-time scores show 45 games being in favour of the AWAY side. (34%). The final results of these matches being……6 HOMES (13%), 6 DRAWS (13$) and 33 AWAYS (73%). In 9 of these games there were no further goals scored. (20%). Here also the “rogue” games were well spaced to enable a profit with or without a staking plan.
The six games which ended as HOME WINS after being behind at the interval ALL were behind at half-time by 0 – 1.
Of the nineteen games which had more goals than the single score at half-time, 18 ended as AWAY wins.
For those with an interest in Lay the Draw 39 games (86’7%) would have ended thus. Similarly those laying the Home side, at half-time, would have had identical returns of 39 successful forecasts.
In the 132 games played during the season there were a total of 30 Red cards.
Brazil Serie A 2013.
Probably the strongest league outside of Europe. Their season runs from May to December.
As with all 20 team leagues, they play a programme of 380 matches. Their Red Card count is a pointer to their Latin temperament, a total of 103 giving an average of 2.7 cards per weeks games.
The games we’re interested in total 77. The full-time results of these games were 4 Homes, 55 Aways and 18 Draws. ( 5.2%, 71.4% and 23.3% respectively).
There were “no further goals” in 19 matches. Here a profit could have accrued with a little vigilance and an adept juggling of stakes. However, certainly not for the novice or newcomer to “dutching”.
Sides leading at half-time by 2 or more goals returned 100% winners for the second half of matches. 17 from 17.
Laying the draw from these first half leaders would appear to be of no use whatsoever. Whilst there were 68% second half draws the prices on offer would probably make a profit very doubtful.
Laying the Home side at half-time would be much more successful with 73 games out of 77 going the right way 95% accuracy.
All in all, it would be very advisable to bet very carefully on this particular league. With the sides leading by 2 or more goals being the best bet but the prices offered would be very restrictive.
Sweden Allsvenskanliga 2013.
This league is very popular with the punters and runs from late March until early November. One of the smaller composed leagues, it is nevertheless one that is worthwhile studying as can be appreciated such a compact league doesn’t lend itself to any outlandish stats.
There were 56 matches in which the Awayside led at the interval. 23.3% 0f games played. These ended up 5 homes ( 8.9%), 37 Aways (66%) and 14 Draws (25%).
There were 9 matches in which the half-time score ended as the final score (16%). Here again a good profit would have been possible when “dutching” the “next team to score” market.
Laying the second half Draw would have been a little bit of a nerve twitcher. Once again the odds on offer would probably have been too tight. Laying the Home side in the second half would almost certainly have been profitable with a return of 91% winners.
There were 11 matches in which the half-time leaders led by 2 or more goals. None of these teams lost.
As can be be expected, such a small set-up, as with others like them, have a fairly good disciplinary record. Only 45 Red Cards were shown throughout the 240 matches played. A touch under ONE CARD EVERY FIVE GAMES.
Ireland Premiership 2013.
A league which seems to change it’s make-up as often as the weather. At present it is composed of 12 teams playing 33, yes 33, games each. The set-up could only be compiled in Ireland. Their season runs from March to October. Giving the punters a nice overlap to our own season.
There were 59 matches which were led at Half-time by the visiting team. The final results for these games were 5 Homes (8.5%), 43 Aways (73%) and 11 Draws (18.5%).
There were 10 games in which there were no further scoring in the second half. These were well spaced and a good profit would have accrued from a level stakes regime.
As might be expected there was one aberration in that a team leading by TWO goals at the interval was beaten. That’s the Land of the Leprechauns for you. Nevertheless Laying the home sides at Half-time would have been profitable. Odds permitting.
The teams leading at the interval by 2 or more goals returned 14 successes and one defeat. A good chance for profit-making.
Laying the Half-time Draw wasn’t as good as it might have been. Here again, the odds on offer would have had a great bearing on the profits possible.
The Red Card count was 58 from the 33 matchdays working out at under 2 per matchday.
The last few articles have been very enlightening and I have come to the conclusion that “Dutching” the “next goal” when the away side has the lead at interval will be a very good way of making a profit. For some reason there seems to be a greater chance of making a larger profit than when Dutching the next goal when the home side has been dominant. Of course there needs to be some work on the part of the punter especially if he wants just ONE match to bet on. Some study won’t go amiss. In fact it is really a necessity for the serious player. There will be days with, say, three games to choose from. What is the plan of action? Choose one match or split the overall stake three ways. My choice would be stick with ONE match. However whatever the choice is, GOOD LUCK.
Some of these stats have been taken from current seasons form and results whilst others have been from the last full seasons results.
Whilst “thunder does strike twice” were football results are concerned The more study put in the greater profit will come out.
