Trading – betting strategies (part 3)
My favourite strategy, at the moment, is Over 2.5 goals, with Insurance.
It’s not strictly, Trading, but nevertheless can be used as such should the necessity arise.
The basic strategy requires that you find a match in which there are likely to be more than TWO GOALS.
With the INSURANCE you need to decide which team will score at least ONE goal only.
Ideally, the team you choose should be the home team. All stats quoted will relate to matches in which the HOME TEAM has been chosen as the team to score at least ONE GOAL.
With this strategy there are only three scores that can go against a selection. Namely 0 – 0, 0 – 1 and 0 – 2. Now when you consider how many scores are possible in any match you can see that the percantages are in the backers favour. In fact there are SIXTEEN possible scores up to and including 3 – 3. So without the larger scores, 81%+ of games will go the way predicted.
Obviously some leagues will be give a better performance than others. However, some basic checking should make it possible to find likely matches in any league.
Checking stats at the present time in the season, may throw up one or two anomilies, but generally figures are very consistant throughout the season.
My figures will show some leagues well into their season and others just getting warmed-up.
To simplify things I’ll call games where the result is one of the three scores we DON’T WANT, losers the rest therefore , winners.
winners losers percentage percentage
of losers. of UNDERS.
Greece. 11 5 31.25 81.3
French Div 2. 47 21 30.9 69.1
Serie B. 36 9 20.0 66.7
English 2. 53 20 27.39 61.6
M.L.S. 147 41 21.8 58.0
French Div 1. 36 14 28.0 56.0
Braziliero. 172 46 21.1 52.8
Irish Premier. 111 38 25.5 52.3
Portugal Supa 18 7 28.0 52.0
Scottish Div 1. 19 6 24.0 52.0
Scottish Prem. 17 24 29.16 50.0
Comparing the two percentage figures it shows that the strategy reduces the chances of having a losing bet.
Looking at this strategy from the other side, leagues with good Overs returns, makes interesting reading.
winners losers percentage percentage
of winners. of OVERS.
Dutch Ered. 44 2 95.65 73.9
Bundesliga 1. 24 4 85.71 60.7
Scottish Div 2. 21 4 84.00 60.0
English Prem. 35 5 87.50 57.5
Norway Tippel. 153 31 83.15 57.1
Denmark SAS. 39 9 81.25 56.3
English League 1. 60 10 85.71 54.3
Championship. 61 12 83.56 52.1
Superetten 159 42 79.10 50.2
Sweden.
All figures were collated before kick-off 18/09/10.
All these figures can be up-dated match by match. There are many sites which give the necesssary stats.
Now there will be the odd occasion when things will not go according to plan, i.e. the team the underdog in your reckoning, will score first. This is known as Sod’s Law. This is were your experience comes in to play.
If you’ve chosen well there will be leeway in your expected profit to cover to minimize any loss or may even leave you with a little profit. The big question is, do you back the present score or go for broke and back 2 – 0? You obviously MUST back one of them. The cautious will go for 1 – 0, aware that there might well be another goal for the u/dog, with another chance to reduce possible losses.
In this situation experience really counts.
The answer to all situations is to CHECK THE STATS. Find the high scoring fixtures from the past and choose your games from the middle of the table teams. Forget the top quarter and bottom quarter of the league tables and the games you’re left with will be priced to give you more than a sporting chance if you need to get out of trouble.
More information about betting strategies
