Trading – betting strategies (part 4)
This strategy is really for the Big Hitters.
I am assuming that you have an account with at least one Exchange. You should also have access to a good Odds Comparison Site.
The idea is to choose your match as early as possible. Most games in the major leagues will be offered at least two days in advance.
The strategy is very basic.
Choose the team you expect to win and check the odds being offered by the bookies. Compare the best odds from the comparison site with the exchange. If the odds are comparable BACK it on the Exchange. Over the following days monitor the prices on the Exchanges. When the price on offer is to your liking, you then LAY to guarantee a profit.
An ideal game to choose in one where the favourite (home team?) is at, say, 2.0. Under normal circumstances you can expect the price to shorten to around 1.8. Under these circumstances you could stake as follows:–
Back 100pts @ 2.0 potential returns 200.
Lay 111pts @1.8 potential returns 200.
Your liability for the lay bet is 89 pts.
Using only one Exchange you will only pay commission on your NET PROFIT.
You do need to have an Arbitrage Calculator to hand to ensure your LAY STAKE is accurate. These can be found on many internet sites.
This strategy doesn’t rely on correct forecasting as your interest really disappears when you place your LAY bet.
AWAY FAVOURITES.
I’ve never really considered favourites to be worth backing for any good reason. A recent scan through some past results have given me no reason to change my mind. What it has done though, is make me realise that there are occasions when it’s well worth backing against the jolly.
People throw up their hands in horror when the “good thing” loses, away from home, against a side they were expected to “put-away”. Contrary to popular belief this happens more often than not.
Just to see if there was any reason to go along with backing against the favourite, I did a “quickie”. Looking at results from five leagues. Three just a few weeks into their season and two well advanced. The results were interesting, to say the least.
The sample I’ve used isn’t large, but does appear to hold-up under certain conditions.
Laying the FAVOURITE when it is the AWAY side holds out possibilities.
I looked at just over 600 games. In 84 of these the AWAY team was FAVOURITE. The Jolly won only 30 of these games. A little over 35.5%. A figure that could well be better.
Taking the Spanish Primera out of the equation there were 71 games of which the FAVOURITE won only 20. A touch over 28%.
What has sprung to mind is the possibilities there are to form a workable strategy.
Basically, you can LAY the AWAY team when it’s favourite. Current results indicate that the odds offered are big enough to show a fair profit. However to increase the odds further in our favour, also BACK the FAVOURITE to WIN 1 – 0.
Depending on your choice you could also back the FAVOURITE to win 2-0 and 2-1.
Using the above results LAYING the FAVOURITE and backing 0-1, 1-2 and 0 – 2 would have resulted in 84 bets with returns from 74. Which is a return of 88%. Surely a good basis for some DUTCHING?
I find these figures so intriguing that I intend to check-out some more leagues and keep as many as possible up-to-date.
As I have already mentioned, the number of games I’ve checked isn’t nearly enough but “every marathon commences with the first step”.
More information about betting strategies
