Turkish Airlines Preview – November 1st-4th, 2018
The Turkish Airlines Open should provide plenty of attacking golf action this week. The course in Antalya is one that players have proven can be attacked. Accuracy on hitting the fairways isn’t too big of a thing at the tournament and that means the big drivers will be out and taking on what is in front of them. The reigning champion is Justin Rose who is at 9/2 odds* (betting odds taken on October 30th, 2018 at 4:49 pm) to defend his title.
Turkish Airlines Open Winner Odds*
Justin Rose 9/2
Tommy Fleetwood 8/1
Thorbjørn Olesen 14/1
Shane Lowry 20/1
Hao Tong Li 22/1
Kiradech Aphilbarnrat 25/1
Thomas Pieters 28/1
Lucas Bjerregaard 33/1
Lucas Herbert 33/1
Matt Wallace 33/1
Joost Luiten 35/1
Andy Sullivan 33/1
Tom Lewis 35/1
40/1 bar * (betting odds taken from bet365 on October 30th, 2018 at 5:01 pm)
Three of four not good enough
The nature of the course just lends itself to all-out attack, but it also means that if a player stuffs up just one round, then it’s likely going to prove very costly at the end of the day. Looking at the field the top two of Rose and Fleetwood are not offering a great deal of appeal this week for golf betting. Rose has been pretty consistent recently with an eighth place at the British Masters and then a third place last week in China at the WGC HSBC Champions.
But at the same time, there have been a couple of rounds in all of that where he has looked a bit on the tired side in terms of the degrees of mistakes just creeping into his game towards the end of the year. Certainly, 9/2 odds on Rose to defend* (betting odds taken on October 30th, 2018 at 4:49 pm) doesn’t appeal. As for Fleetwood you have had a look at his form and see that he hasn’t won in any of his last 25 tournaments. So it is time to dig a little deeper. One of the key stats from last season’s effort was the high scoring on par 4’s so you will want to
Olesen opportunity
Denmark’s Thorbjorn Olesen actually looks a really good fit this week at a much more tempting price of 14/1 odds* (betting odds taken on October 30th, 2018 at 4:49 pm). He’s not the most accurate off of the tee but that isn’t going to hurt him too much in Turkey this week. In pretty tough conditions out in China, he took a seventh-place finish. He also is going on a good track record after coming home fifth last year in the event which was in turn, a very strong attempt at a title defence. Each of his last four rounds have been under par at the course.
Each Way value
Kiradech Aphibarnrat went well here last year year and he was ranked top in the par 4 scoring at Regnum. Like Olesen, he is going to be carrying form into the tournament as well after banking a T4 at the WGC HSBC Champions over the weekend with four very solid round of gold. That was out of the blue but it could be the start of mirroring last season’s end of year form where he came on strong and landed a T6 at the Turkish Airlines. He is up in that 25/1 odds each way bracket* (betting odds taken on October 30th, 2018 at 4:49 pm)
Lucas Bjerregaard going to be a decent option as well to have a look at for this week. He has two European titles under his belt and both of those wins were by big scores. This is just the sort of track where big scores can be easily achieved and therefore he could play his way into contention. He had a bit of a nightmare last week in China, but that was after some good performance at the Made In Denmark, Omega European Masters, the Alfred Dunhill and the British Masters. A meaty 33/1 odds on him* (betting odds taken on October 30th, 2018 at 4:49 pm) is well worth a look compared to the meagre value on the front-running two.
Prediction
We are going to totally skip the front too and look deeper. Of the key frontrunners, Olesen is the right value to have a look at. But there is some value knocking around in the Top 10 Finish market where Bjerregaard and Aphibarnrat at 3/1 and 9/4 respectively could easily deliver given their form and course history. They could even be worth trimming down for shots at the top five as well.
