While the Conservatives are a best 1/6 to win most seats at the upcoming UK General Election, I think I’d be more than a little worried if I’d bet the mortgage or the hedge fund on them doing so given the way the polls seem to be going.
Never can a Prime Minister have been more desperate to call an early General Election than Boris Johnson. His premiership to date, barely six months old, has been an unmitigated disaster.
He’s suffered loss after loss in votes in the House Of Commons. He has been caught being economical with the truth, lost High Court cases and has failed to carry out his main objective of ensuring the United Kingdom left the European Union on October 31.
Bojo only holds his position thanks the votes of a relatively small number of Conservative Party members who bear no relation to the general populus so it is a calculated risk going to the people but, realistically, he had no choice. Opposition parties have almost been setting the agenda in Parliament. Without their consent, he would not have been able to call a General Election – his powers in law already having been nullified. Now, we have a chance to assess just how popular or unpopular the PM is!
Heckled and booed in public appearances, Johnson’s current popularity rating is plunging and no-one, including many in his own party, trust him. His relationship with American entrepreneur Jennifer Arcuri remains highly contentious. The Crown Prosecution Service is investigating his role in Vote Leave’s breaking of the law and he’s been accused of covering up an investigation into overseas interference in elections and referendums.
In any other time and against most official opposition, the PM would be toast but he does have one big thing in his favour – Jeremy Corbyn. Labour’s leader has been painted by the press as a zealot and terrorist sympathiser with communist tendencies. As most of the UK’s press is right wing, most of what they say can be taken with a huge pinch of salt but millions are worried about the prospect of Corbyn as PM. His personal approval rating is lower than Johnson’s by some distance, though has been on an upward curve since the election was called.
Both main parties are promising a massive spending spree. Labour (6/1 with Bet365 to win most seats) have more history than the Conservatives for such things but any sane voter will soon work out that most of the promises are hollow. A level of spending suggested would bankrupt the country in short time.
The Conservatives still have Brexit as they prime objective but have perhaps overestimated its importance to the public, especially in marginal seats. Labour want to re-nationalise the railways, the energy and telecom industries and cut back on private contractors working within the NHS. The Tories promise spending on education and the NHS but are stringently denying they plan to sell off the latter to Donald Trump as part of any trade deal.
Farage intervention could impact Tory vote
There are several unknown factors in the upcoming election, however – the Liberal Democrats, The Scottish Nationalists and the Brexit Party.
I strongly suspect that the latter will not have as much of an impact as many people suggest. Nigel Farage thinks Boris Johnson has betrayed his cause but doesn’t have the self-belief to stand for Parliament again himself having failed eight times already. They want to field 600 candidates in England and Wales but will struggle to better the Monster Raving Loony Party in more than a few of those seats, though could do serious damage to the Tories.
The Liberal Democrats (a general 50/1 in the market) are a more serious threat to an overall majority for the Conservatives and Labour.
Jo Swinson has attracted Conservative and Labour defectors to her broad church on a ticket of Brexit resistance. Her party is solidly remain, as are the SNP. The latter could easily sweep the board in Scotland as calls for a new Independence referendum grow north of the border. The Lib Dems are more than capable of taking a few marginal seats but Swinson’s claim that she thinks she could be the next PM is miles off the mark. Apart from cancelling Article 50, there doesn’t appear to be much else in their promises that will attract votes.
UK General Election Most Seats Best Odds
Conservatives 1/6, Labour 6/1, Liberal Democrats 50/1, Brexit Party 66/1, Green Party and UKIP 1000/1
(Odds correct at 3.00pm November 4)
Confusion, divisiveness and uncertainty dominate British politics at present and there is little chance of much change or clarification after this election, whichever party gains the most votes.
